Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Sweet Spot reacted. higher levels on horizon. probably 50 pcent of the H1 fib next. lets see

shouldn't we be selling on any rallies give BOE is on thursday?

can be 1.32 area to road to 1.40

somehow feel this rally is running out of steam...

Come on guys, the pound will be trending down, probably for months. Get on the winning team. Forget about charts for awhile. Trade this on what's actually going on in the world. BOE interest rate cuts this week. Ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Stronger US dollar. Strong US non farm payrolls. Possibility that the UK is headed into recession (and possibly the EU). Possible FED interest rate hike this year.

Long Pound Dollar - from 129 450
Short on EuroPound.

Looking at Cable this week

The main thing is that we have a new PM which is obviously bringing stability to the markets. Asian market bullish.

Later on today, Carney speaks- so he might give us some further indication on what will happen- interest rate wise. However, over the last two occasions when Mark Carney has spoken the pound has dumped. So I will be probably looking to sell tomorrow- as he will probably tell MPs that the UK economy is stuffed- but the banks are ok. Bearing in mind the hard time MPs gave him when he told them what would happen if the country voted Brexit - I am sure he is also itching to say - told you so. So probably a bit of a sell particularly as the markets have rallied a fair bit. He has said before that he is just going to tell truth - no flannel - and I for one appreciate that. At least you know where you stand

Regarding when interest rates will be cut - could be this week- although most analysts think it will be in August

Here is a recent speech

"In my view, and I am not prejudging the views of the other independent MPC members, the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer,

The committee will make an initial assessment on 14 July and a full assessment complete with a new forecast will follow in the August inflation report. In August, we will also discuss further the range of instruments at our disposal.

Cannot see a BP cut more than 25. And this could provide some support to Cable- as unlikely to cut it to zero.

US- Fed interest rate hike- think there is too much weakness in the US economy at the moment to warrant a raise in interest rates. NFP headline was great - but looking into the detail showed weakness. FOMC minutes showed major concerns about Brexit and basically the chances of a rate hike are nil at the moment. On Friday we have some CPI and Retail Sales figures coming through - if these are poor Cable will rally.

Going forward thinking of putting all this in a journal - so it saves me having to look stuff up.

Why the cable shoot up yesterday in such a chaotic situation ? Can anyone enlighten me ?
I open short GBP/USD, which turning to be disaster today.
If not any sign of sell off, will close today....

Hi Rhari139,

Follow close to the GBP threads and poster Geppy, as we believed a correction was coming and it seems that's just what happened.

I hope tomorrow is kinder to you,
Mule

Better yet, learn to ignore the chatter and trade for yourself. Look at YOUR charts and only use these forums for amusement and a social club. They are chock full of other people's "crystal ball" opinions that are both confusing and completely meaningless. Nothing matters but the price on the chart and the timeframe you choose to trade in. Just a thought.

look like breakout to the upside, whos ridiing the wave.

Yep, gorgeous breakout. I took longs Monday morning before NY open near the bottom of the range. Clear breakout and trailing the stop:

Whenever you can't figure out why one of the majors shoots up, simply go with 'broad US Dollar weakness'. Hell, that's what the pros all do haha!

2 trades - from 129 450
see if we get a morning bounce of the 130 ..

Pound has made a decision move to best point for open short. Balance is short and will be great receive a confirmation about short on 1.3180.

You believe GU reaches 1.318 before the speech?

what Mark Carney will say about cut rate?

London only started and we are already at daily R2 +140 pip from opening.

I don't know about fundamentals, but people are saying GBP probably falls after his speech