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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,681
  • Jul 5, 2016 10:15am Jul 5, 2016 10:15am
C for me please
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,682
  • Jul 5, 2016 10:36am Jul 5, 2016 10:36am
be prepared for massive coordinated CB action
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,683
  • Jul 5, 2016 11:04am Jul 5, 2016 11:04am
...and Europe going home with the UK about to enter in financial chaos with big money running and very fast from the property market (who would have thought with Brexit ...) which if things go bad will be a massive blow on all sectors.

Lots of noise and unconfirmed rumours in the background of large residential property entering in panic and lobbying the government to put a stop before is too late...if that triggers the 'happy' brexiters will have to start putting their money where their vote was sooner than expected. I hope not as it will be devastating for the majority...

In any case, Sterling on free fall, inches away to lose the psychological 1.30xx mark but risk contagion already spread across the FX board. Equities still holding with an avalanche of free money holding the markets and potentially even more to come in the next few hours.

For now, is all about the US staying on the summer 4th July break until the short term turbulence pass or stepping in to put the hand break before this move become uncontrollable...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,684
  • Jul 5, 2016 11:50am Jul 5, 2016 11:50am
Quoting chester123
{quote} just btw sisse. have you pulled the plug on SP500 short/mid term? my guess? not yet
No but I already updating my sentiment of the signature to reflect the next Quarters already after Brexit (to sell on European Equities and rate cuts on Sterling). Only a major good NFP will delay a rather poor summer in Equities and the self inflicted pain in the UK is aligning to short-circuit the recovery in Europe that was months away to pan out...

sisse

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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,685
  • Jul 5, 2016 1:29pm Jul 5, 2016 1:29pm
...and we finally seem to have all clear for the next PM in the UK. Teresa May seems to be a done deal.

V. old fashion, very conservative hardliner obsess with only one topic in mind "immigration" that will please the Brexiters and the very old folks that strongly supported the leave campaign but will create strong division during the negotiations with the EU (via free movement of people and all that)

On the economic front given the current circumstances better than the poor alternatives but still a ??? if her obsession with migrants will be enough to address the major and real economic and financial problems that are already getting out of proportion ... At least, the UK is moving from vacuum of power to a chicken WITH a head ...

Lets see how it goes as during the campaign and especially the last few days she has been very aggressive against Europe but now that she will be in power most expect a more rational and civilise approach as markets are screaming for certainty and not conflict...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,686
  • Jul 5, 2016 1:43pm Jul 5, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting sisse
...and we finally seem to have all clear for the next PM in the UK. Teresa May seems to be a done deal. V. old fashion, very conservative hardliner obsess with only one topic in mind "immigration" that will please the Brexiters and the very old folks that strongly supported the leave campaign but will create strong division during the negotiations with the EU (via free movement of people and all that) On the economic front given the current circumstances better than the poor alternatives but still a ??? if her obsession with migrants will...
I am going to take an opportunity to question TM's economic sanity. First toy she has mentioned to spend taxpayer's £££ on will be a brand new set of Trident armed submarines. These gadgets do not come cheap...
  • #141,687
  • Edited 4:38pm Jul 5, 2016 4:28pm | Edited 4:38pm
Very bearish close in US equities and we are aligning for a massacre in a NFP flop as the FED Minutes will only reconfirm that the global 'risk' factors in the last meeting are actual confirmed and triggered by Brexit so any fears will be highlighted and confirm the news instead of opening new expectations ....

Gold looks ready to take the highs to complete the leg while Yen with the lows naked but starting to look doubtful at these levels as expectations of the BOJ stepping in if we take the current lows are growing by the minute.

Sterling hanging on air by default more than technicals with a fresh break into the cliff. Now is officially too late to jump in if you are not already short and suicidal if not plain stupid to try to catch a multi decade falling knife at top speed against all TA and FA....

Euro holding the move stronger, the carry trade keeps helping it to avoid a major selloff, but panic already took place in the FX board making it lose key 1.108x and setting Dollar as only haven in currencies until Sterling and extreme risk move out of the picture.


Quoting xy76
{quote} I am going to take an opportunity to question TM's economic sanity. First toy she has mentioned to spend taxpayer's on will be a brand new set of Trident armed submarines. These gadgets do not come cheap...
Pure politics and political posturing . She has always been playing the 'tough' person image but one thing is been in the background playing the good cop / bad cop (TM) to keep the right wing of the Tories in check and another is having to actual make decisions in a country that is splitting apart and showing a great division in and outside of its borders ....

We'll see but pretty sure any extreme positions will backfire marketwise given the current circumstances. ...

sisse
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  • #141,688
  • Jul 5, 2016 9:12pm Jul 5, 2016 9:12pm
someone or "ones" want us to start talking whether cable @~1.05 (historic low) will "survive"....
  • #141,689
  • Jul 6, 2016 1:29am Jul 6, 2016 1:29am
Quoting sisse
...Sterling in play one more time in only few hours after the last macro move triggering imminent break down alerts one more time for a test of current lows [check] and soft extension to the lows of the 1.28xx [check] handle and potential ext to 1.21xx [in play] with panic in mid term.

'Roll' in play today, this time for GU, GJ and EG....and we have a staggering 17 major markets in play at the same time for mid term swings....
Quoting sisse
Gold looks ready to take the highs [check] to complete the leg while Yen with the lows naked [check] but starting to look doubtful at these levels as expectations of the BOJ stepping in if we take the current lows are growing by the minute.
No surprises in Gold, Yen and Sterling capitulating as widely expected since last week. Main targets cleared overnight with the test of the lows of the 1.28xx handle in GU and 129.0x GJ and first target in Gold 1365.xx in flawless and very simple trades. Well done all riding the legs.

--> We are in panic and no man land in Sterling for the European opening with ears and high alerts on the SNB and BOJ. However and although sounds a bit counterintuitive (...BOE gave the go ahead already so expectations are nothing new in the Pound) for this morning given Sterling moves but all eyes are actually on the EURO losing 1.097x today as the next act in play is with the FED Minutes / NFP combo via Dollar and Equites on the brink of withdrawing from the map until the storm is clear in the summer.

--> Expecting Minutes to make some sleepy and disconnect from the world US investors realise that a big storm is about to hit them. FTSE holding 6600.xx with or without support from US NFP will pretty much set a mid term top in UK equities and will set the high of this year. For now expecting Euro to lose floor any minute so not much to do but same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
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  • #141,690
  • Jul 6, 2016 2:57am Jul 6, 2016 2:57am
...and that was it for the European opening. Healthy profit taking in Sterling but more importantly watch-out YEN losing current lows (and BOJ may step in too) for the Asian close as it's triggering imminent short term break down alerts in UJ with Euro on the brink to follow up in a few....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,691
  • Jul 6, 2016 6:55am Jul 6, 2016 6:55am
Things moving very fast in the FX board and we are on the brink to jump into long term legs areas in most (Dollar was already there since June...no wonder why) currencies but more importantly we are about to turn the page in equities and most asset classes.

--> We are officially finishing the last 2 years of commodities (OIL especially) trade driven markets this evening to regain focus on macroeconomic and structural factors for the foreseeable future.... This will make a rather long analysis for later as it will define the board for the next couple of years.

For now:

The flows for the current leg have been moving in perfect synch and we got right on time for NY the next in line. Euro triggering imminent short term break down alerts. A 'tick' below the current intraday lows unlock first target and beyond.

Quoting sisse
The rest of the FX board will move as collateral of Sterling [check] in the same flows as they day of the vote last week (Yen [check] -> Euro [in play]-> Dollar -> Commodity currencies -> the rest).

Euro set to roll very bearish too and only a last .....
--> For those who have asked why the order of the flow and how did you know that would happened?.... we can chat later in the evening but in general is the 'Direct Interval Impact' (coined by me right now as i don't know how to name it so don't google it...) on related classes when risk without uncertainty (brexit its a fact) is in play.

--> On the rest of the board, things look extremely dark in Equities. The UK bad economic news keep flooding in the background while the mass media is distracted discussing Iraq and Tony Blair (lol what timing for this...uff ) now with terrible reports from Wales property sector on the brink to pull the plug and trigger the first real impact to the average Joe and in the economy as early as Q4 2016 ...details later....

Eyes on NY, that is aligning for a new playing field as early as this evening with the Minutes but with the real deal on Friday's NFP....

sisse
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  • #141,692
  • Jul 6, 2016 7:31am Jul 6, 2016 7:31am
Quoting sisse
'Direct Interval Impact'
DII- added to trading lexicon
  • #141,693
  • Jul 6, 2016 9:50am Jul 6, 2016 9:50am
Strong opening range and the structures are starting to shake across the board ....watch-out for Yen one more time.

UJ losing 100.7x with the Minutes/NFP unlock 90.6x with a strong intermediate stop 97.8x...day is far from over and large hands expected to start clearing with the Minutes for the NFP play...

sisse
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  • #141,694
  • Jul 6, 2016 10:46am Jul 6, 2016 10:46am
Today I find the price action rather crazy and minutes to come Great sisse makes sense in all of that

Btw. USD-bear r u still chasing those bunds? I wonder when all the CB mandness in bonds ends. Bet this is gonna go on for some time since risk-off just fuels the whole thing and we may be up to some big bang.
  • #141,695
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:06am Jul 6, 2016 11:06am
...and that was it with Europe going home. US back in control for the first time in weeks.

Good numbers from the US keep equities afloat or one more session but the #s all still lagging pre brexit jitters. Whatever the case, US equities entering in choose your poison time right on time for the Minutes/NFPfor those interested in the next short term swing in Equities.

All maps pretty much cleared across the board. Expecting a turning point after the Minutes not really for the content of them but for the expectations in play for the rest of the summer at least ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,696
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:11am Jul 6, 2016 11:11am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it with Europe going home. US back in control for the first time in weeks. Good numbers from the US keep equities afloat or one more session but the #s all still lagging pre brexit jitters. Whatever the case, US equities entering in choose your poison time right on time for the Minutes/NFPfor those interested in the next short term swing in Equities. All maps pretty much cleared across the board. Expecting a turning point after the Minutes not really for the content of them but for the expectations in play for the rest of...

Is it not choose your poison mid term too? If I get it well the short term leg you mean should be down.... so first leg down of mid term?
  • #141,697
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:17am Jul 6, 2016 11:17am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Is it not choose your poison mid term too? If I get it well the short term should be down.... so first leg down of mid term?
indeed ...but the mid term entry play extends as far as July FED meaning v. cheap tickets could be on sale today with the short term leg and if risk start trickling down to the US markets as I expect with the Minutes with lots of lagger and overconfident investors across the Atlantic realising that now they must be v. careful for the summer (and even worst with a poor NFP).

In simple words, short term ride in play that includes a coupon with v. cheap, but not guarantee yet early tickets, for a very juicy mid term leg ....je je je

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,698
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:22am Jul 6, 2016 11:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} indeed ...but the mid term entry play extends as far as July FED meaning v. cheap tickets could be on sale today with the short term leg that if risk start trickling down to the US markets as I expect with the Minutes with lots of lagger and overconfident investors across the Atlantic realising that now they must be v. careful for the summer (and even worst with a poor NFP). In simple words, short term ride in play that includes a coupon with v. cheap, but not guarantee yet early tickets, for a very juicy mid term leg ....je je je...
How can minutes bring the risk down?

They can just prove FED is on hold with hikes =) risk-on?
xxx
They can stres that the situaation/impact of Brexit can be serious? =) risk-off?

You think the second option is the case?
  • #141,699
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:30am Jul 6, 2016 11:30am
Quoting chester123
Today I find the price action rather crazy and minutes to come Great sisse makes sense in all of that Btw. USD-bear r u still chasing those bunds? I wonder when all the CB mandness in bonds ends. Bet this is gonna go on for some time since risk-off just fuels the whole thing and we may be up to some big bang.
Hi chester,
yes still cautiously chasing, after losing the last bunch @ BE, started today building position again @ 168 which equals -0.2% on 10 Year's Bunds.
Besides the ridiculous levels reached, can't see many short term triggers though but I often see price moving before the reasons appear in very large trend turn like the Yen back in 2012
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #141,700
  • Jul 6, 2016 11:40am Jul 6, 2016 11:40am
Quoting chester123
{quote} How can minutes bring the risk down? They can just prove FED is on hold with hikes =) risk-on? xxx They can stres that the situaation/impact of Brexit can be serious? =) risk-off? You think the second option is the case?
Well this part was going to be on the News play today but lets do it right now.

First forget about Brexit for a sec and remember we are here from the last FED:

Quoting sisse
And that was pretty much it. No June hikes and very timid July as expected from the rates front. ... Inline with expectations for the news flow and dovish for the mid term. That will kill the FED and everything else till brexits. Risk in play from the close. sisse
Two main issues for today/this week:

 

  1. The main issue is that the FED was extremely cautious and dovish in the last meeting before the UK vote preempting (and rightly so) risk and panic going out of control.

    1. However, the main issue is that the Minutes will reflect those potential GLOBAL 'RISKs' as major reasons for not hiking June (and July). The 'slightly' big problem is that BREXIT is now confirmed so all those comments will be enhanced as the fears are not expectations anymore and now ARE reality.
    2. The FED will have a hard time backtracking on those fears/realities especially with Europe far from calming down so they will need to start slowly turning down the dovish comments to more hawkish (...like is not that bad for the US in the short term etc etc etc, ) and at the same time 'begging' for the 'especial relation' ally to get back into their senses and the civilized world ASAP .


  2. The second and very important thing that will enter in play from today (TB re confirmed with NFP) is that with July hikes pretty much killed we are going to get back to "good/bad news is good/bad news" and not the inverse correlation we have been trading via rates in the last couple of months.

    1. For trading purposes that means. Bulls squeezing the last fumes of no hikes would have a very hard time against risk and global economic slow down factors....
    2. Meaning from now forwards equities will enter in direct correlation with macro numbers and Dollar on direct correlation with risk ...


I hope it helps ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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