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The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,641
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:30pm Jun 30, 2016 1:30pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} you cant lose buying equities it seems. I was playing and aiming for US equities to go to 1940-1960, but instead it ripped it my face. What is also clear is that they are not able to go higher past 2130 without a little more easing from the Fed, so we have been stuck in this chop zone, which just proves that S&P500 and the Fed's balance sheet has a correlation of 1. Ftse100 completing a magic roundabout to the highs. Although what is clear is that sterling decline is here to stay as most real/big money has probably not even started selling...
disclaimer: I have made my bed and have added some puts on SPY and I am still not buying this rally. lets hope that theta will not eat me alive.
  • #141,642
  • Edited 1:54pm Jun 30, 2016 1:40pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting chester123
Hmm, interesting to see how E/U rolls towards the super important 1,097x. Hope bears can make it for the M/Q close As for now it still seems too far away.
Yes, I agree. I had hoped it would close under. But, I am going to be glad to see it close under my FLIP level at .108X-106X. It is also good to see it close under .111X. I think this will seal the deal for me that my MID TERM MAP is well under way.

In sisse's exercise I almost took the NEUTRAL as this was a plausible call. But, I didn't like the end of it that price would be hovering around .088X after Non-Farm. Too me, if price was around or below .097X; it would rip thru that level especially on a good non-farm number.
  • #141,643
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:41pm Jun 30, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} you cant lose buying equities it seems. I was playing and aiming for US equities to go to 1940-1960, but instead it ripped it my face. What is also clear is that they are not able to go higher past 2130 without a little more easing from the Fed, so we have been stuck in this chop zone, which just proves that S&P500 and the Fed's balance sheet has a correlation of 1. Ftse100 completing a magic roundabout to the highs. Although what is clear is that sterling decline is here to stay as most real/big money has probably not even started selling...
I also got caught on the break back of highs on S&P (2082.xx) on the BOE bazooka but not in European ones as I was expecting intervention from the BOE and ECB but I missed by a mile or two an entry ...there is still crumbs left in European Equities while in US equites we are pretty much done till key NFP as we will need real pushers from the FA side to crack 2097.xx..

--> Yes, short term play in UK equites seems to be set and rather quick (brilliant play by the bastards) as the impact of free money and the annihilation of Sterling will be more than enough to keep us dancing for a while. Initial FA numbers on the real impact of Brexit will only start appearing by the end of July expecting a plunge in Confidence first as first early signal.

--> Outside of panic via politics (Scotland? or etc) We'll need Q3 GDP numbers to start having a clearer timing for the mid term swings. Reports keep coming under the main media coverage of international / EU related trading companies leaving in mass the UK today we got Nissan relocating main factories to Morocco and a shameful leak of GS and MS already have pre-rented offices in Frankfurt ... again nothing new as most actions are meant to take place by Q2 2017 but all these companies keep piling a huge wave in the background ...

.,,.for now ride the pig ask the question later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,644
  • Jun 30, 2016 3:00pm Jun 30, 2016 3:00pm
...and that was pretty much it. Sterling barely held but held at the end for today and not further surprises for a wild month .

Euro nothing new set to roll in the more than obvious and never ending 1.108x (I hope nobody is surprised for those in the last iteration of the contest). We are set for a irrelevant closes in the Currency board as most was settle in the last couple of weeks already.

Sterling well annihilated completing the knee, short and mid term reaction in one go and unlocking long term swings as early as the next quarter.

Yen caught like always in panic moves with not much the BOJ can do in between closing neutral in the long term, slightly bearish for the mid term, and very bearish for the short term.

Commodities currencies in the backseat and moving as collateral. Energies will keep CAD in bid with a long term neutral close and mid term marginally bearish. AUD looks rather interesting for Q3 / Q4. Once we clear the short term fears and Gold (which strangely/coincidentally is entering in choose your position time for the long term) AUD looks set to take centre stage for the end of the year. Dusting AUD to the workspace for this Quarter.

Finally Dollar holding super key 94.4x for the mid and long term unlocking 100.xx and beyond but Brexit short-circuited it in the short term and we are set for wide chop zone at least until US numbers start clearing some doubts in the next few weeks....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,645
  • Jul 1, 2016 6:41am Jul 1, 2016 6:41am
Updates from the Brexit front... strong rumours from the UK but not from the EU side that nothing will happen (no article 50 blah blah) in the next 6 months or more ... meaning status quo guarantee while the majors deciders in here (business and big banks) have a clear path.

Expecting a counter 'tweet' from the EU talking heads in any minute to play 'cat and mouse' for the rest of the summer while markets ride the pig and ask the question later when politicians are out of the way...

Eyes on NY open as markets can officially confirm that there are like always 2 steps ahead of the talking heads and just ignore the political BS in between...

Tracking closely the open, in case of a sharp reaction, until then ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,646
  • Jul 1, 2016 7:15am Jul 1, 2016 7:15am
Wat are ppls thoughts on martingail? i have use this metod in the past with some gud and bad trades
  • #141,647
  • Jul 1, 2016 10:45am Jul 1, 2016 10:45am
Europe going home with a very sharp rally in stocks. More details coming from the BOE and the bazooka will be very big and more impotently very soon. Markets riding the pig as it were not tomorrow (and its prolly true mid term). FTSE unlocking the top of the range to 6810.x with a strong intermediate stop 668x ('crumbs left').

For the second day in a row, Sterling hanging on a very thin line, Europe going home will unlock one more time an attempt to break the lows (that will carry all the currency board and beyond). Lots of air and panic below and BOE decided to sacrifice Sterling in favour of stocks and the economy (no other alternative really) so sitting tight here with very high chances to blow the bottom in GU in the US closing session.

US equities enjoying the relief rally and only capitulation in Sterling will kill the current rally today, Tracking very closely S&P 2097.xx for the close. On the FX board, Sterling the one and only driver for today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,648
  • Jul 1, 2016 11:32am Jul 1, 2016 11:32am
Quoting sisse
Updates from the Brexit front... strong rumours from the UK but not from the EU side that nothing will happen (no article 50 blah blah) in the next 6 months or more ... meaning status quo guarantee while the majors deciders in here (business and big banks) have a clear path. Expecting a counter 'tweet' from the EU talking heads in any minute to play 'cat and mouse' for the rest of the summer while markets ride the pig and ask the question later when politicians are out of the way... Eyes on NY open as markets can officially confirm...
We are waiting for the EZ to collapse then we won't need to leave coz there won't be anything left to leave

The ultimate irony is that if the ECB cannot save Italy’s banks from their fate, the chances are that the one country that finally topples the Eurozone’s flimsy house of cards will be the same country whose financial system had been supervised (a term I use in the loosest sense) for six years by current ECB President Mario Draghi. As the old adage goes, what goes around comes around.

http://thedailycoin.org/2016/07/01/a...mpty-promises/
  • #141,649
  • Jul 1, 2016 2:46pm Jul 1, 2016 2:46pm
US Equities closing extremely high without a break but extending the highs to 2105.x ...

Something smell very fishy across the board and things rather big are cooking in the background. Don't like what I am seeing in correlated markets neither the way the last rally panned out in the US. I am bookmarking and putting a key mark in my FA charts today 01 / 07 / 2016.

For strictly FA and structural reasons key and 6th update after the Brexit news.

--> Changing mid and long term outlook in US equities from Neutral to SELL.

TA wise actively looking for entries for 2110.xx -> 1750.xx with intermediate stops soft 2040.xx and strong 1975.xx.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,650
  • Jul 1, 2016 3:04pm Jul 1, 2016 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
US Equities closing extremely high without a break but extending the highs to 2105.x ... Something smell very fishy across the board and things rather big are cooking in the background. Don't like what I am seeing in correlated markets neither the way the last rally panned out in the US. I am bookmarking and putting a key mark in my FA charts today 01 / 07 / 2016. For strictly FA and structural reasons key and 6th update after the Brexit news. --> Changing mid and long term outlook in US equities from Neutral to SELL. TA wise...
sisse, if you have minute can you write how you gone name the mark on your FA chart cuz to change long term is huge, no??? I would name it "The day CB totally overmanipulated the market"??

is gold market the corralated one which looks strange?

Im not fan of any conspiration theories but.... the rally is totally out of FA reality
  • #141,651
  • Jul 1, 2016 3:09pm Jul 1, 2016 3:09pm
On the FX board we are pretty much set for the roll with an extreme bearish close in Sterling. We are rolling in one of the strongest closes we have witness in a few years across all currencies.

Tracking back in history, the only comparable TA and FA area in Cable is the break down 1983. I find hard to digest such a violent move last week is going to be extended to the long term leg straight away but there is very little to hang on as the BOE is officially aiming to devalue the currency to offset the imminent economic flows and impact coming in a few weeks/months.

When you have all FA reasons aligned, a mega TA break down and the CB of the country aiming to smash a few handles in the currency, and nobody sitting in the other side ..... This is one one heck of a 'scary' close. A tiny push off the lows and there is nothing but air below .... Not much to do here but sit tight to see if it pans out quickly.

The rest of the FX board will move as collateral of Sterling in the same flows as they day of the vote last week (Yen -> Euro -> Dollar -> Commodity currencies -> the rest).

Euro set to roll very bearish too and only a last minute and unexpected rally to take the highs will change it.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,652
  • Jul 1, 2016 3:25pm Jul 1, 2016 3:25pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, if you have minute can you write how you gone name the mark on your FA chart cuz to change long term is huge, no??? I would name it "The day CB totally overmanipulated the market"?? is gold market the corralated one which looks strange? Im not fan of any conspiration theories but.... the rally is totally out of FA reality
Well because markets are moving in contradictory and rather strong fundamental divergences. These by experience, only happens in major shifts in long or mid term direction. The last time i have something similar in my charts was back in Nov 2011 in the S&P.

I am just bookmarking because TA wise is not pointing at this AT ALL and the focus of short term FA 'expectations' in the markets is about the FED no hikes July and riding the collateral rally from the UK ( free money from BOE and knee jerk reaction from vote clear and all that) so nothing really pointing to a sell off short term.

However, markets structural components look rather wrong and the moves look completely off mark on current macro numbers (NFP and etc) and expectations of slow down in Q3 via Brexit, US elections and earnings. Somewhere there is a FA trigger that I am missing or that it pop up soon or a sharp TA move to shake it out ....as long as I don't get that I just leave the bookmark in BRIGHT RED but actively looking for entries to the short side ...whatever comes first ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,653
  • Jul 2, 2016 6:40am Jul 2, 2016 6:40am
Attached Image
  • #141,654
  • Jul 2, 2016 2:52pm Jul 2, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well because markets are moving in contradictory and rather strong fundamental divergences. These by experience, only happens in major shifts in long or mid term direction. The last time i have something similar in my charts was back in Nov 2011 in the S&P. I am just bookmarking because TA wise is not pointing at this AT ALL and the focus of short term FA 'expectations' in the markets is about the FED no hikes July and riding the collateral rally from the UK ( free money from BOE and knee jerk reaction from vote clear and all that) so nothing...
SP500 Comment:
I am not really surprised ...the only logical explanation for me is visible in the charts ( at least I see it that way and it is just my opinion). Maybe we should all remind ourselves at times like this that Big Interlinked Banks operating this "free" market have endless resources of fiat paper $$$$ and can push prices whenever they want and how far they want with it. The only thing that can stop them are some CBs (like we witnessed at SNB peg removal last year)...
I of course agree with you on all other points and sooner or later they will show their true colours. We just need enough patience to wait for that moment, becouse it can come anytime.
(H4 chart used instead of Daily for better view of what is going on)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .US500CashH4 2.7..png Size: 102 KB
PVSRA
  • #141,655
  • Jul 2, 2016 3:16pm Jul 2, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting sisse
US Equities closing extremely high without a break but extending the highs to 2105.x ... Something smell very fishy across the board and things rather big are cooking in the background. Don't like what I am seeing in correlated markets neither the way the last rally panned out in the US. I am bookmarking and putting a key mark in my FA charts today 01 / 07 / 2016. For strictly FA and structural reasons key and 6th update after the Brexit news. --> Changing mid and long term outlook in US equities from Neutral to SELL. TA wise actively looking for...
us stocks bullish
  • #141,656
  • Jul 4, 2016 4:36am Jul 4, 2016 4:36am
To the Markets.

What a wonderful bird is a frog as it flits from bow to bow
it makes it's nest in a rhubarb tree and whistles like a cow.
  • #141,657
  • Jul 4, 2016 6:19am Jul 4, 2016 6:19am
Super lazy day with nothing to do or see so far but with potention of massacre via G/U. It seems a question of hours

P.S. after Farage resignation in UKIP - absolutely unbelievable that British politics with such a huuuge tradition can generate something like this. Really. Dont ask just wonder.
  • #141,658
  • Jul 4, 2016 7:43am Jul 4, 2016 7:43am
Quoting chester123
Super lazy day with nothing to do or see so far but with potention of massacre via G/U. It seems a question of hours P.S. after Farage resignation in UKIP - absolutely unbelievable that British politics with such a huuuge tradition can generate something like this. Really. Dont ask just wonder.
all the politicians who won flee.

the government has decided to abandon wants to stay as long as possible.

poor abandoned europe wants to send them out as soon as possible.

it does not seem exactly normal behavior between winners and losers ....

Obviously Farage no more in UKIP but still in euro-parlament is the cherry on the cake
  • #141,659
  • Jul 4, 2016 10:39am Jul 4, 2016 10:39am
Quoting change
{quote} all the politicians who won flee. the government has " />
They shit in a fan.....All run before shit hits the fan.

The true masterminds behind brexit in a modern coup d'etat getting rid of all 'friends', allies and enemies in one master stroke while most of the unaware, uninform an uneducated 'celebrate' a pirric victory with racists, xenophobes and extremist cheerleding in the background. This will finish monopolizing all power in a few Etonian hands that now have the country by themselves and their interests.The saddest and most embarrassing weeks in British politics since the the Great War. ..

.In any case, a dull day over with US markets on Holiday. Yen starting to struggle at the current levels and looks ready to start the week as early as the Asian opening....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,660
  • Jul 4, 2016 6:14pm Jul 4, 2016 6:14pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} SP500 Comment: I am not really surprised ...the only logical explanation for me is visible in the charts ( at least I see it that way and it is just my opinion). Maybe we should all remind ourselves at times like this that Big Interlinked Banks operating this "free" market have endless resources of fiat paper $$$$ and can push prices whenever they want and how far they want with it. The only thing that can stop them are some CBs (like we witnessed at SNB peg removal last year)... I of course agree with you on all other points and...
stocks will probably will keep rising cuz american central bank rate rise is delayed until end of 2016 or some say end of 2017
precius metals gold silver and stocks are and usd actually are the safe heavens relatively with bonds
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