The Really Useless Thread | Page 7081 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #141,601
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:57am Jun 29, 2016 7:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Was it you that posted this tool? Currently says 95% chance of rate hike in July..... http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html
No, it says 98.8% chance of rates remaning on hold in July, in 0.25%-0.50% range, with a 1.2% chance of a 25bps cut, bringing the target rate to 0-0.25% range..
  • #141,602
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:03am Jun 29, 2016 8:03am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} No, it says 98.8% chance of rates remaning on hold in July, in 0.25%-0.50% range, with a 1.2% chance of a 25bps cut, bringing the target rate to 0-0.25% range..
AH! Was reading it as rate increase not target rate. Knew that looked looney. Its early just finished my first cup of coffee. Thanks for the clarification
  • #141,603
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:17am Jun 29, 2016 8:17am
Just wanted to say thanks to those that give input to my posts now and then. I appreciate it.

Pharm0r and gammase1,

Looks like only a 14% probability of a rate increase in Dec for any type of hike. Wondering if the RMT is going to fade as an indicator and economical picture will take the driver's seat if no one is raising rates for awhile.
  • #141,604
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:27am Jun 29, 2016 8:27am
Lots of key developments in the Brexit front and they are moving at very fast pace. There is very strong noise and leaks about Scotland about to trigger a major shocker in the saga. Non confirmed but strong rumors of Scoltand pretty much locking a key deal with the EU behind closed doors to allow them to separate from the UK and join the EU in a fast track.

All these BEFORE article 50 and all the re negogations... This will be a game changer in the process and put a terrible dagger in the heart of the UK.

Eyes on the next few hours, expecting major spikes in the upcoming hours from the EU / UK / Brexit front ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,605
  • Edited 8:45am Jun 29, 2016 8:33am | Edited 8:45am
sisse,

IF this deal goes thru, how does this affect EU currency for the most part?
  • #141,606
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:39am Jun 29, 2016 8:39am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, IF this deal goes thru, how does this EU currency for the most part?
I can imagine EU will fly and GU will tank

oops sorry didnt see that you were only addressing sisse, apologies
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #141,607
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:44am Jun 29, 2016 8:44am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I can imagine EU will fly and GU will tank oops sorry didnt see that you were only addressing sisse, apologies
No worries....its open to anyone and then sisse can confirm....thanks!
  • #141,608
  • Jun 29, 2016 9:25am Jun 29, 2016 9:25am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...shed-by-spani/
  • #141,609
  • Jun 29, 2016 11:27am Jun 29, 2016 11:27am
Europe going home with nothing new from the Brexit front so far but with UK Equities short-circuiting all over the place for the Quarterly flows and back to choose your poison time before the vote but this time we already know the outcome ...

On the rest of the board nothing new since the open. There are plenty of options for every single taste with every single major markets now in launching platforms for short and mid term swings so GL all planning to trade or/and already trading.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,610
  • Jun 29, 2016 11:38am Jun 29, 2016 11:38am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with nothing new from the Brexit front so far but with UK Equities short-circuiting all over the place for the Quarterly flows... sisse
Any explanation why the UK Equities retracement (and by extension DAX and SP) is almost full to up 90-100% where it is expected to go further down?
  • #141,611
  • Jun 29, 2016 12:28pm Jun 29, 2016 12:28pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Any explanation why the UK Equities retracement (and by extension DAX and SP) is almost full to up 90-100% where it is expected to go further down?
We discussed yesterday with Chester. The sharp devaluation of sterling triggered a rally of sectors benefiting for exchange rates t 'out the blue' gains.

The kneee jerrk reaction was completed on Friday (check posts ) and we are looking for short and mid term legs for the Q flows..

On the rest of world equities, just collateral of the UK moves during the knee jerk reaction and now they will enter in play. All of them back to breakout for decision time

..sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,612
  • Jun 29, 2016 2:17pm Jun 29, 2016 2:17pm
Hyperactive markets continue for 4 day in a row. (Feels like a year of data )

Sterling in play one more time in only few hours after the last macro move triggering imminent break down alerts one more time for a test of current lows and soft extension to the lows if the 1.28xx handle and potential ext to 1.21xx with panic in mid term.
Also and new comer this year for trading EG unlocking the parity swing.

BOE pretty much guaranteing a rate cut on any failure from policians to clear the mess in the next few weeks or in the next minimum selloff in stocks.

As always bastards guarantee safe passage whatever the outcome from the EU renegotiation front while the rest of the mortals will pick up the bills if things flop...

'Roll' in play today, this time for GU, GJ and EG....and we have a staggering 17 major markets in play at the same time for mid term swings....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,613
  • Jun 29, 2016 2:24pm Jun 29, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with nothing new from the Brexit front so far but with UK Equities short-circuiting all over the place for the Quarterly flows and back to choose your poison time before the vote but this time we already know the outcome ... On the rest of the board nothing new since the open. There are plenty of options for every single taste with every single major markets now in launching platforms for short and mid term swings so GL all planning to trade or/and already trading. sisse

Sisse, pls, not talking about the recent exersice which focuses on the short term swing........ you saying we are in launching platforms for mid term too.

So on E/U: look at my map. the yellow rectangle was choose you poison for mid term aka cheap seats before brexit. But how can u trade it now mid term - seems not so cheap We on my flip lvl now =) FA strong sell =) we still trade from inside out and beyond. But the tricky part there is M/Q combo. I feel inclined to jump the gun now as I expect even the roll to be down confirming technical strong sell on mid term..........and stop above strong res. 1.132 =) targeting lvls as shown on the map. But would you wait for the confirmation (1.097) with M/Q combo?

Not asking for do it/dont do it. Just if its tactical to wait for the M/Q roll or if you have some other comments pls
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 26 KB
  • #141,614
  • Jun 29, 2016 2:31pm Jun 29, 2016 2:31pm
chester123,

This is what I wanted to wait for but sisse was closing the table exercise so I had no choice but to get in. I wanted two things:

1. EU to get as close as possible to .117X for a sell (INSIDE OUT)
2. I wanted to wait for a D/W/M/Q close around .097X (rainmaker) to confirm my trade if I was in it!

Hope your are doing well in any trades you have open! All the Best!

" would you wait for the confirmation (1.097) with M/Q combo?"
  • #141,615
  • Jun 29, 2016 2:32pm Jun 29, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
Thanks Fadhl ... the first one to jump is always the hardest .... IN ++++Currently Euro is trading 1.108x++++ ""Knee jerk reaction or a trend change"" -> LMT BUY 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.118x | TP2 => 1.131x | TP3 => 1.141x | STP => 1.0980 | max r:r -=> (+)4:1* manosk -> No touch 1.118x / 1.098x (till W close)-> TP2 => No touch 1.1280 | 1.088x (till noon NFP) max r:r -=> (+)4:1* Fadhl -> LMT SELL 1.108x -> TP1 => 1.098x | TP2 => 1.085x | | TP3 => 1.075x | STP...
If it is not too late i would like to take no touch...waiting for a spot to sell and dont see it yet there
  • #141,616
  • Jun 29, 2016 3:16pm Jun 29, 2016 3:16pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, pls, not talking about the recent exersice which focuses on the short term swing........ you saying we are in launching platforms for mid term too. So on E/U: look at my map. the yellow rectangle was choose you poison for mid term aka cheap pls {image}
Let's walk through your questions with more questions till the roll.

Quote
But would you wait for the confirmation (1.097) with M/Q combo?

Do you trade expectations, facts or both/none sometimes?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,617
  • Jun 29, 2016 3:21pm Jun 29, 2016 3:21pm
{quote} Do you trade expectations, facts or both/none sometimes? sisse[/quote]

You trade expectations. But, doesn't a close under .097X become a confirmation (fact)?

And, it appears GU is on a ROLL UP (intra day-Lol).....I am wondering if it will fill the gap (.3565) as this would be a great area to SELL (INSIDE OUT based on the GU Outlook)
  • #141,618
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:05pm Jun 29, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Do you trade expectations, facts or both/none sometimes? sisse[/quote] You trade expectations. But, doesn't a close under .097X become a confirmation
I just asked 1 simple question and you made a Royal mess with a collage of concepts and TA in between.

After 14 live iterations in which you pretty much are kicking ass in the contest and you still refuse to break free from your mental trading constrains to make it yours for your trading plan!!!

For the 100 million times and until you keep asking and refusing to break from your intraday trading paradigms:

 

  1. Stop focusing on the TA details before you get the proper picture clear and define both in direction and expectations.
  2. You have move from trigger happy to trigger shy in the last 12 weeks. Your last few posts you always seem to be waiting for something to decide....
  3. ...and what is worst you have become a green / red candle, close above/below, etc trader ....you are sabotaging yourself if you do that for long

To wrap up this part. If you trade expectations, and you outlook is telling you that the Euro is going to the moon in 2 weeks ..WELL TRADE the damn long side (or vicevesa). Let me tell you the best and one of the first hints i gave you:

If you are right in the direction (expectations) you can toss a coin, trade a lagging MA or a crossover oscillator or randomly ask a friend to guess a number in the range and use it as entry !!!!!.... If you are right in expectations and still average in defining on time direction you are going to have a winner ...period.

The longer you refuse to dig deeper and understand why I am 'forcing' to make a decision in very strict ranges but with proper and real R:R, the sooner you will get something valauable from these iterations....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #141,619
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:58pm Jun 29, 2016 6:58pm
Sisse , if one is to position for the sell bias after brexit , and I want to point out the med/long term on this one...then [EURUSD] lvls like 1.124x[not sure about this] , 1.139x and 1.15xx should be steel resistance as far as the expectations are inline and concerning targets like 1.085x/1.075x and 1.04xx lows are valid for the coming period. all point to the same outcome from purely FA unless a wtf move from scotland , also trade deals between UK/germany make the risk much lower , even that and not to miss the forest for the trees one has to follow the general direction or trend [not sure about this in current monthly range], one has to translate that in TA in a way that drawdown is at lowest and just wait for the trade to pan out ie patience .
in simple words , it's much safer to fade/sell into rallies to the specefic upside lvls in the long run without zooming in too much ie irrelevant timeframes for such trade.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #141,620
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:40pm Jun 29, 2016 7:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Let's walk through your questions with more questions till the roll. {quote} Do you trade expectations, facts or both/none sometimes? sisse
Ok so to answer..... I trade expectations....

On E/U: in mid term I expect EURO to be the driver. If we cut it down and simplify = macro, rates and risk.

Macro = I extect further slowdown in Q3/Q4 in eurozone (due to brexit)
Rates = even now we behind rate differentials (potentional further easing from ECB just adds to the pressure)
Risk = maybe carry trade (but if it happens only with soft risk =) I dont expect that. If I expect any risk =) another eurozone crisis =) hard risk =) EUR down)

Overall =) all adds to sell =) strong sell mid term.

So I added the lines to my chart =) I expect euro to hit second target by Q3 and extension by Q4.

Ehm, so with proper stop loss (above 1,132x) its super high probability the trade is gonna work and I would say on mid term W1 chart its time to enter.

P.S.: I dont take into account USD side which is unclear to me now.... mid term neutral USD side??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 26 KB
37 traders viewing now