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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #433,081
  • Jun 22, 2016 3:06am Jun 22, 2016 3:06am
Quoting iqyu5an
very good analysis and updated, Lock. aniway why u not try to put the analysis in your own thread or may be make new one ? rgds, {quote}

Thanks iqyu5an, maybe you're right. I see I'm occupying too many space here with my analysis. I'm a little imbarassed to be honest. I should post less or, as you say, start a new thread. I will see. Thanks again. Regards

PS: it's like a diary for me right now and I'm not interacting very much with others. I'm not happy about that. Sorry.
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  • #433,082
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:11am Jun 22, 2016 4:11am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 14660 taken out and I'm out right below tokyo. If it's going any further down I will see. By now there are a lot of single pips above. And it's 2 times now in and out tokyo low. {image} {image}
Hi Lock,

Could you share any resource/website to learn market profile in your chart. I see always you use market profile info to make entry decisions. It would be useful for novice traders like me, how headstart on this topic.

Thanks.
  • #433,083
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:21am Jun 22, 2016 4:21am
Quoting rhari139
{quote} Hi Lock, Could you share any resource/website to learn market profile in your chart. I see always you use market profile info to make entry decisions. It would be useful for novice traders like me, how headstart on this topic. Thanks.
Hi rhari139,
Well, first of all there are very different schools of market profile interpretation: so I do not want to be accused to suggest you a specific one. A neutral source is for sure the manual of the market profile edited by the Chicago Board of Trade. After that (and I think you are going to spend some time over that) You can digit market profile in google and see what you can find. I can only tell you a thing that I know for my personal experience: it's a long path in terms of time and energy involved, and I'm speaking of years, not months.

Anyway I'm happy you are interested in this and I hope you'll be fine with it!
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  • #433,084
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:43am Jun 22, 2016 4:43am
Now, if you like. Let's speak about a bad entry: my entry.

The Test below overnight low failed. And so a buy when we came back in Sydney was licit. But only if you know
what you are doing, you are fast to execute and if you are not the kind of trader who falls in love with his or her positions (like I am sometime).
Note that I miss the entry when we came back in Sydney and I bought right below Tokyo with an excessive risk putting the
structural SL below Sydney.

as you see the position can hold or be a profit too. But this is not the kind of trade that can assure a brilliant future for a trader on the long run.

note that F period (M30) is inside E period that is inside D period: so we are in a very narrow balance right now.

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  • #433,085
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:23am Jun 22, 2016 5:23am
Quoting Lock
....note that F period (M30) is inside E period that is inside D period: so we are in a very narrow balance right now. {image} {image}
and when price come out from a so narrow balance a trade is licit but... you should carry forward the informations below (very bad cluster at round number 14650) and your stop should be tight, some pip below breakout. In fact if price comes back in balance (E period) you do not want to remain in your long (considering the weak starting point at 14650). You should be fast in the execution and monitor for continuation. For instance: price moved above GB open, found nothing and came down. This is not a good sign of continuation. Does it mean it will not last? I'm not saying that, I'm only saying that you have to be prepared and all those informations have to be carried forward. Finally "tempo" is very slow. Let's see
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  • #433,086
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:26am Jun 22, 2016 5:26am
141 700 looking to close today - see if we get to 147 (plus some change)
closed first trade yesterday.
This is the second trade

The Euro trade was a separate issue with profit of course.

8 days of holding trades.

To: falconz13 | From: dean1star | Sent: Jun 14, 2016 9:52pm
------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ---------
141 700 buy on pound dollar
112 330 buy on the euro dollar.
  • #433,087
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:40am Jun 22, 2016 5:40am
Gbp/Usd is trading nearly flat around 1.467 level prior to the UK referendum tomorrow, upside immediate resistance level can be seen at 1.47.
  • #433,088
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:20am Jun 22, 2016 6:20am
Trying to get my head around what is happening in Cable at the moment- and what the sentiment will be tomorrow

Overall
Just get the feeling that the markets are pricing in a rally tomorrow
My only concern is that there was a movement back to Brexit (slightly) over the last couple of polls
Does that mean it will continue
Although historically there is a swing to the status quo before voting begins
Would be useful to see if there are going to be any polls out today (there was one yesterday- at 1.30 which moved things)

I have heard that hedge funds are using private exit polls tomorrow- this means that they will have a better idea on what is really happening before retail traders- big edge

Looking the this mornings trades

Market opened up, came off slightly, rallied up - before a nice spike, this was retraced to 61.8% (now fourth test)

What will happen next not sure to be honest
  • #433,089
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:26am Jun 22, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Fader123
Trying to get my head around what is happening in Cable at the moment- and what the sentiment will be tomorrow Overall Just get the feeling that the markets are pricing in a rally tomorrow My only concern is that there was a movement back to Brexit (slightly) over the last couple of polls Does that mean it will continue Although historically there is a swing to the status quo before voting begins Would be useful to see if there are going to be any polls out today (there was one yesterday- at 1.30 which moved things) I have heard that hedge funds...
Hey Fader - always topical.
I think some market movers will be looking to continue Fridays move with the GAP on Sunday, after all they can and this is marked as a once in a generation moment would we expect a forcefull move after the votes are in sure .. but that wont be the end of it as money makers will take it for as much as they can.
Would imagine the following Scotland would want out they might even force a second referendum in the future too.
The North for sure would want out.
Midlands out too.
Wales out and Cornwall out.

Southern England for sure and lower middle england, South west and east would be a yes vote, but theres a lot of people still hurting in Great Britain for many reasons, even if they dont agree they might take the stand of why should we give the government what they want when all they seem to do is take take and take more in tax and anyways what do we have to loose. So No votes is my Bias. But hey nothing is ever set in stone right..
  • #433,090
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:42am Jun 22, 2016 6:42am
Quoting Fader123
Trying to get my head around what is happening in Cable at the moment- and what the sentiment will be tomorrow Overall Just get the feeling that the markets are pricing in a rally tomorrow My only concern is that there was a movement back to Brexit (slightly) over the last couple of polls Does that mean it will continue Although historically there is a swing to the status quo before voting begins Would be useful to see if there are going to be any polls out today (there was one yesterday- at 1.30 which moved things) I have heard that hedge funds...
POLLS close 22;00GMT THURSDAY so with that in mind, until the count has finished between I should think Friday 3am and Friday 7am I aint doing a damn thing.
Friday is trading day... Thursday may be good set up day.
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #433,091
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:49am Jun 22, 2016 6:49am
Also the GBP is giving great opportunity across the board on other currencies pairs... I am seeing much better set ups currently usd/jpy and most likely more predictable.. I think I will give these next few days a miss GBP unless I am 999% sure... just because numbers are green does not always give the desired effect for the pair due to event itself impacting other things GBP...
Even though I can confidently see a bullish move I am not risking it...
I like my account the way it is and will put in the hours to build it on what I consider to be a sure thing... I do not study the news enough to be sure this is a sure thing.. I trade the charts and let the news serve me...
GOOD LUCK TO ANY BODY TRADING THIS...
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #433,092
  • Edited 7:29am Jun 22, 2016 6:55am | Edited 7:29am
preUS is going to open inside yesterday range with an overnight inventory 100% long. (it means that the totality of overnight activity occurred above yesterday pit close at 146465.)
above
14700 is currently weak (now tagged also by pre US is even weaker - edit)
below
14650 is a cluster(gb)

Note that GB open coincides with preUS open 146865 and price goes up and down that level multiple time. Great uncertainty. No conviction at all.

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  • #433,093
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:21am Jun 22, 2016 7:21am
Quoting dean1star
141 700 looking to close today - see if we get to 147 (plus some change) closed first trade yesterday. This is the second trade The Euro trade was a separate issue with profit of course. 8 days of holding trades. To: falconz13 | From: dean1star | Sent: Jun 14, 2016 9:52pm ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ --------- 141 700 buy on pound dollar 112 330 buy on the euro dollar....
Congrats !! lots of pips xD Still waiting for 1.5?
  • #433,094
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:26am Jun 22, 2016 7:26am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Hey Fader - always topical. I think some market movers will be looking to continue Fridays move with the GAP on Sunday, after all they can and this is marked as a once in a generation moment would we expect a forcefull move after the votes are in sure .. but that wont be the end of it as money makers will take it for as much as they can. Would imagine the following Scotland would want out they might even force a second referendum in the future too. The North for sure would want out. Midlands out too. Wales out and Cornwall out. Southern...
Hi dean1star

If they vote out - I can't blame them- pressure on school places, NHS waiting lists, and I have heard some terrible stories about the EU
It does feel like cutting your nose off to spite your face though (loss of jobs, recession, pound dumping)

Lots of large companies have told their staff to vote for Remain, smaller companies that deal with the EU will vote in, manufacturing and car companies will vote in
Old people will vote out, young people - 50/50 (jobs, housing issues)

True about most people hating the government and big business

Its going to be close
Looking at external indicators
Bookies have remain as a cert, hurst and planetary cycles - have in

Not the sort of outright trade I can take-
If a gun was put to my head -Remain

But will just try to trade the swings
  • #433,095
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:42am Jun 22, 2016 7:42am
Now 14700 is weak as a ref tagged and is also a poor high. Note that we have now 2 back to back pre US session poor highs. (the other one is at 14745
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  • #433,096
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:44am Jun 22, 2016 7:44am
Just opened a few no deposit bonus accounts for the day... Now that I don't mind doing... Hehehe..
FREEDOM IS SECURITY.
  • #433,097
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:55am Jun 22, 2016 7:55am
On the BBC wireless R4 at 13:00 BST there is a news program. The last item today, @ 13:40, was a piece from an online 'gaming' site which gathers data on likely election outcomes by getting participants to 'play'. The site has been surprisingly accurate at predicting outcomes where the participants understood the parameters of the subject under discussion.

To cut a long story short .... the Remain scenario has never been below 70% for remain (I have no idea how the data is harvested).

On return to my trading platform I see that Cable has skipped up 30-pips in 10 ten minutes.......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #433,098
  • Jun 22, 2016 8:23am Jun 22, 2016 8:23am
Quoting dean1star
141 700 looking to close today - see if we get to 147 (plus some change) closed first trade yesterday. This is the second trade The Euro trade was a separate issue with profit of course. 8 days of holding trades. To: falconz13 | From: dean1star | Sent: Jun 14, 2016 9:52pm ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ --------- 141 700 buy on pound dollar 112 330 buy on the euro dollar.
What a trade dean1stare

Congrats
  • #433,099
  • Edited 8:37am Jun 22, 2016 8:26am | Edited 8:37am

  1. please note that 14730 (current preUS high) is 1 pip above yes GB unch.
  2. and 14745 is yesterday preUS poor high(as said previously)

us pit is going to open inside yesterday range. ("exactly" at the open of yes pit - 4pips - edit) and 4 pips above previous day pip unc (06.20) And all this to say that there is huge uncertainty and indecision.

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  • #433,100
  • Jun 22, 2016 8:42am Jun 22, 2016 8:42am
Attempted break out above last 2 pit sessions balance high. (14718)

a recap of above target just in case it works:

above

  1. 146955 yes pit(06.21) tagged day before pit unchanged(the close of the day before 06.20)
  2. 147455 yes preUS poor high (edit!)
  3. 2 old pit minus development 14754-14783 / 14787-14796
  4. 148155 (2016 GB high)


far above

  1. old GB high 148415 (2015.12.30) back to back with old GB poor high 14844 (2015.12.31)
  2. old multi pass pit gap 148485-148535 (very interesting for pit sessions)


I forgot 14730 (current preUS high) is 1 pip above yes GB unch. see post before.

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