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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #433,061
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:29pm Jun 21, 2016 8:29pm
i like brexit
gu more more moving...
  • #433,062
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:56pm Jun 21, 2016 8:56pm
Quoting Prinze
I m just thankful that GU came back up and I got out of position that was almost 500pips in the red for a 10pips gain. I m staying out until the Brexit vote. I hope this post will be allowed, my first post did not. I m a newbie and trying to make my first post here 😂😂😂

Wow what a lucky recovery Prinze. I suggest you always keep that sinking feeling in mind when setting your stop loss tighter. And it's a good idea, as you mentioned, to stay away from anything with a GPB in it for now.
  • #433,063
  • Jun 21, 2016 9:06pm Jun 21, 2016 9:06pm
Quoting tomie
i like brexit gu more more moving...
There is a saying " Drive it like you stole it" . I say "Trade it like you own it" until it runs out of fuel.
  • #433,064
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:22pm Jun 21, 2016 11:22pm
When is the poll result coming out ?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #433,065
  • Edited 12:22am Jun 22, 2016 12:11am | Edited 12:22am
A little visual recap of yesterday activity.

I hope a "clear" chart could provide a better perspective of what I thought.

Yesterday overnight activity(06.21) has been retraced by us session(06.21). Then during the pit session, last trading activity went down below recent value and became "short in the hole". This imperfection, as immediately noted**, as been retraced right after by the upcoming new overnight activity(06.22).
Please note: yesterday pit value is inside 06.20 pit value. and yes. pit range is inside 06.20 pit range. It means that we are currently "in balance" (as for the pit session).

**"Also, if we come down from here we are going to develop below pit value that could not be moved any further down at this hour of the day. we have only 3 M30 period to close. So we risk to go short in the hole..."

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,066
  • Edited 1:22am Jun 22, 2016 12:42am | Edited 1:22am
A pre opening recap.

Yesterday, just after the preUS session open with a gap higher, I wrote "if the gap is retraced and confirmed below, then we could start to watch at all the targets to the down that are quite the same of this morning before GB open"

After that, pre us session went down, closed the gap, removed a couple of targets below, went up again to correct the excessive inventory short and then start consolidating below again. Then pit session opened and started going down to the targets (that were all the weak levels of the overnight activity). A short was then possible. (By the way I didn't short at all and I was flat.*)
So what?
All the targets have been filled when pit session ended.

below

  1. 147055 GB poor low/open TAG
  2. 146955 yes pit unch tagged by 2 Tokyo M30 periods
  3. 146720 yes GB high
  4. 146500 Tokyo cluster (many M30 bars at same round level)
  5. 146405 Tokyo Poor Low (2 M30 bars same low at the bottom of the session)
  6. 146355 Sydney BtB(2 pips above) yesterday GB unchange(close)


And as said before, pit session went short to much below its value and just after that, it has been retraced by the new 06.22 overnight activity.


For today

the unfilled targets of yesterday remain possible, below and above. I added some new possible weak ref. developed yesterday during pit and today during current overnight activity (Sydney and Tokyo sessions)


above

  1. 146955 yes pit(06.21) tagged day before pit unchanged(the close of the day before 06.20)
  2. 147455 yes preUS poor high (edit!)
  3. 2 old pit minus development 14754-14783 / 14787-14796
  4. 148155 (2016 GB high)

far above

  1. old GB high 148415 (2015.12.30) back to back with old GB poor high 14844 (2015.12.31)
  2. old multi pass pit gap 148485-148535 (very interesting for pit sessions)

below

  1. 14660 Tokyo low (06.22 session)

far below

  1. 145800 yes. GB TAG of a previous GB ref and pit session tag of the same level
  2. 14492-14495 old multi pass pit GAP (very very interesting for upcoming pit sessions)
  3. 14310-14559 last huge GB gap up (with special attention to the multi pass at 14310-14393)

Have a nice trading.

*The only serious short I made was late in the pit session, after the inside bar "H" . price went up, tested above the pit half back (the mid price of the session) went down again and breaked below the little balance of that period"H" At this point (vary very bad execution) I put a short only to follow those weak guys going down to complete the overnight liquidation. I was lucky and it got all the remaining targets below, as posted.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,067
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:50am Jun 22, 2016 12:50am
Nicely done!
Quoting Lock
A little visual recap of yesterday activity. I hope a "clear" chart could provide a better perspective of what I thought. Yesterday overnight activity(06.21) has been retraced by us session(06.21). Then during the pit session, last trading activity went down below recent value and became "short in the hole". This imperfection, as immediately noted**, as been retraced right after by the upcoming new overnight activity(06.22). Please note: yesterday pit value is inside 06.20...
Step one in representing your ideas in a visual manner is to display charts that are as clear of clutter as possible.
Not only does this make it easier for the people reading the thread to understand, you will find that you can trade better because you're better able to discover price and circumstance that fit your trade methodology.

This chart is a huge improvement and represents your "edge" or strategy very well.

Nicely done
  • #433,068
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:08am Jun 22, 2016 1:08am
Quoting JimmyC
Nicely done!{quote} Step one in representing your ideas in a visual manner is to display charts that are as clear of clutter as possible. Not only does this make it easier for the people reading the thread to understand, you will find that you can trade better because you're better able to discover price and circumstance that fit your trade methodology. This chart is a huge improvement and represents your "edge" or strategy very well. Nicely done

Well JimmyC, thank you. I hope to be clear as possible in the future. Unfortunately there are a lot of reference I need "to be aware of" during the trading day.
I know that could lead to cognitive dissonance and create a confusion but, as to say, I have an hidden cleaning machine in my mind that let me see only what is really important for me during trading.
And so it is difficult for me to provide clear charts in those very active moments.
During early morning hours I have more time to spend to prepare something visually useful for the other traders. And to be perfectly honest I didn' want, initially, to post my charts. But a fellow trader abruptly asked me that and so I was caught unprepared for the task.

Thanks again and have a nice trading day.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,069
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:58am Jun 22, 2016 1:58am
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Pound have returned to range. I think all this growing was on news waiting and now pound will back to the range and will go to his bottom. Target is 1.43
  • #433,070
  • Edited 2:24am Jun 22, 2016 2:01am | Edited 2:24am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} ...CME MP Handbook page 4 "As you go through Parts I and II, however, keep in mind that you're going to expand what happens in a single session to 24-hour markets. This means that certain ideas-the initial balance (pit session) , for example- are going to become less important." {quote} And so does just about every other reference as well (open, high, low, close, etc.) No one said that you couldn't. " Overnight" from whose perspective? I just wanted to point out that "overnight" trading in a 24h FX market is relative to the time zone the...
Dear mzvega, I consider your effort in the field very interesting and, it's now a long time, I was searching to find the needed time to evaluate your work. I'll do eventually.
About the specific issues you touched here let me answer as briefly as I can.
Mr. Dalton retired this year (it was his last professional trading year) or at least that was what he told us some months ago.
He constatly changed his style and behavior during years, even if with modest entity from time to time. He comes from the floor even if he spent there a very little amount of time, as an active member. But if you consider the floor environment we could say that he is fully built over there. He constantly repeated to us that a lot of what he wrote in his first book(coming from the floor) is not what is doing now, because things changed during years and his point of view has been advanced by further analysis and ideas. Initial balance, for instance, is not any more a matter of interest for him, etc..
About the ex floor traders predominancy let me tell a sentence He used to repeat us(not exact words obviously): "when you come out from home and you see it's raining and the streets are cover with ice, you do not need to know scientifically the amount of risk you're going to encounter using your car, nor you have to make scientific evaluations in order to understand that a clean and dry street is less dangerous then a dirty and iced one." So for analogy, I tell you that if I can find "traces" of floor practice over the markets, even in the forex, I do not need to make a survay in order to understand that something coming from the floor is still active and usefull today.

Have a nice trading day and regards


PS: one of the most important thing about overnight is liquidity. If there is no liquidity you cannot place your institutional positions. Who trades without liquidity is generally weak and so eventually his activity could be retraced and corrected by stronger hands when liquidity finally steps in.(during US session). And this is the reason, I think, overnight inventory retracement still works from time to time even in the forex market.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,071
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:04am Jun 22, 2016 2:04am
GB opens below yesterday range and inside previous gap up from 06.20 (14672-147055).
So we are indie a double pass gap.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,072
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:11am Jun 22, 2016 2:11am
If we are not able to retrace the gap from above, then we could fill below the last part of the up gap of 06.20. If instead we fill the current gap down, up to 14055, then we could come back in yes GB range and start to rise inside it. But there is a lot of game in the markets and so Iwill not be impressed if we will see a fill of the current gap down only to see a rapid retracement to fill the old gap up from 06.20. Or vice-versa.

Note that 14700 is round weak as gb high

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,073
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:26am Jun 22, 2016 2:26am
Quoting Lock
If we are not able to retrace the gap from above, then we could fill below the last part of the up gap of 06.20. If instead we fill the current gap down, up to 14055, then we could come back in yes GB range and start to rise inside it. But there is a lot of game in the markets and so Iwill not be impressed if we will see a fill of the current gap down only to see a rapid retracement to fill the old gap up from 06.20. Or vice-versa. Note that 14700 is round weak as gb high {image}

So, gap from above is retraced. 14700 taken out. Let's see if we can go further inside GB range or if we come back down to correct the last gap up from 06.20 (14672)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,074
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:38am Jun 22, 2016 2:38am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So, gap from above is retraced. 14700 taken out. Let's see if we can go further inside GB range or if we come back down to correct the last gap up from 06.20 (14672)
current gb low is a poor low

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,075
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:45am Jun 22, 2016 2:45am
14681 still poor low, but supported by old gap. Let's see if it can go down, close the gap and go further to tokyo poor low. Or it the gap resists..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,076
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:53am Jun 22, 2016 2:53am
Quoting Lock
14681 still poor low, but supported by old gap. Let's see if it can go down, close the gap and go further to tokyo poor low. Or it the gap resists..
poor low at 14681 remooved.
Gap from 06.20 closed. We are now tagging tokyo poor low at 14660
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,077
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:55am Jun 22, 2016 2:55am
Quoting Lock
{quote} poor low at 14681 remooved. Gap from 06.20 closed. We are now tagging tokyo poor low at 14660

14660 taken out

and I'm out right below tokyo. If it's going any further down I will see. By now there are a lot of single pips above. And it's 2 times now in and out tokyo low.

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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,078
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:56am Jun 22, 2016 2:56am
very good analysis and updated, Lock.

aniway why u not try to put the analysis in your own thread or may be make new one ?

rgds,


Quoting Lock
{quote} poor low at 14681 remooved. Gap from 06.20 closed. We are now tagging tokyo poor low at 14660
not euphoria follower
  • #433,079
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:59am Jun 22, 2016 2:59am
14650 is now weak.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #433,080
  • Jun 22, 2016 3:01am Jun 22, 2016 3:01am
Quoting Lock
14650 is now weak.
14650 taken out. Testing overnight low at 14646 (Sydney low)
Ubi maior minor cessat
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