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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #432,881
  • Jun 20, 2016 3:58pm Jun 20, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting gammase1
Latest poll being reported on ft.com, showing 53/47 in favour of remain.
Yep, should give us one more nice bounce up from which to short.

Good to see you posting Paul. Long time.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #432,882
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:02pm Jun 20, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yep, should give us one more nice bounce up from which to short. Good to see you posting Paul. Long time.
Good to see you, Chris! How are you keeping?

Also hearing of a telephone poll conducted by ORB showing an 8 point lead for remain.
  • #432,883
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:04pm Jun 20, 2016 4:04pm
this is just silly. I say we come up with our own forexfactory poll, tweet it like hell and profit from 30-50 pip move
  • #432,884
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:08pm Jun 20, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} Good to see you, Chris! How are you keeping? Also hearing of a telephone poll conducted by ORB showing an 8 point lead for remain.
I'm hanging in there mate.

They'll be all sorts of claims (nonsense) both ways from here on out. Hence .... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=595755 ... ... lol

No matter which way, I just trade my charts. Pretty amazing to see how all the back & forth "polls" are filling in the charts just right.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #432,885
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:17pm Jun 20, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I'm hanging in there mate. They'll be all sorts of claims (nonsense) both ways from here on out. Hence .... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=595755 ... ... lol No matter which way, I just trade my charts. Pretty amazing to see how all the back & forth "polls" are filling in the charts just right.
More than just trading from charts will be needed later this week if it's an out vote.

The market is pretty sanguine at the moment, pricing in a very low probability of a leave vote (20%-25% chance), meaning any such outcome could cause all hell to break loose. The upside potential for cable, in the event of a remain vote, is small compared to the downside potential for a leave vote - totally asymmetric payoff.
  • #432,886
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:24pm Jun 20, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} More than just trading from charts will be needed later this week if it's an out vote. The market is pretty sanguine at the moment, pricing in a very low probability of a leave vote (20%-25% chance), meaning any such outcome could cause all hell to break loose. The upside potential for cable, in the event of a remain vote, is small compared to the downside potential for a leave vote - totally asymmetric payoff.
And any downside move from an out vote could be brutal due to huge short-term political and economic uncertainty and instability it would cause. David Cameron will likely resign as Prime Minister, triggering a leadership contest (with Boris being the favourite to win), Osborne's days as Chancellor will be numbered...
  • #432,887
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:26pm Jun 20, 2016 4:26pm
Hi everyone

came here just to leave an heads up on EUR / GBP quarterly chart just in case someone forgot about.

I have the feeling the value of this cross is quite low since a correct rate should be in long terem between .90 and 1.0

Will be very interesting to see how this chart will appear in 1 month from now.

Maybe total no change
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #432,888
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:32pm Jun 20, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Yep, should give us one more nice bounce up from which to short. Good to see you posting Paul. Long time.
It is what happened following the Scottish referendum in 2014, when there was a knee-jerk pop to the upside following the result....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #432,889
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:44pm Jun 20, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting _BBKing_
Hi everyone came here just to leave an heads up on EUR / GBP quarterly chart just in case someone forgot about. I have the feeling the value of this cross is quite low since a correct rate should be in long terem between .90 and 1.0 Will be very interesting to see how this chart will appear in 1 month from now. Maybe total no change {image}
And yet another blast from the past! How ya been BB?

Quoting gammase1
{quote} It is what happened following the Scottish referendum in 2014, when there was a knee-jerk pop to the upside following the result.... {image}
Well we'll see. Either way it goes I have my plan. But I really think it's largely all to do about nothing. Of course, I'm no fundie guy. ...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #432,890
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:18pm Jun 20, 2016 5:18pm
Quoting Lock
above The M30 cluster from 14694 to 14700 is very weak. below 14581 pit low is Back to back with a previous GB ref already tagged today. So is weak. But the last liquidation remove a lot of short activity from the market. So is less probable at least for today.
So eventually the cluster has been taken out!

and I was not there

The possible fire cracker effect above is anyway still in place:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #432,891
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:19pm Jun 20, 2016 5:19pm
Am I the only person left holding his longs?
  • #432,892
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:49pm Jun 20, 2016 5:49pm
Tonight's polls

ORB- 53/46 for Remain

YouGov- 44/42 for Leave

There was another poll that gave the lead to Remain

So a bit mixed- although better for Remain

When Aus session is mixed- rallied on open - then came off

If it stays there could rally a bit in the next 10 mins- but not a lot of bullish intent

Yellen speaks tomorrow - analysts I understand are expecting her to be dovish

Perhaps do some research tomorrow

But Brexit rules everything

So think on balance mixed to bullish

Going to be my last post for a while

Good luck to everyone
  • #432,893
  • Jun 20, 2016 8:09pm Jun 20, 2016 8:09pm
Quoting alexx90
Easy and I didn't have to do any analysis {image} Regards, Alex
bravo
  • #432,894
  • Jun 20, 2016 9:10pm Jun 20, 2016 9:10pm
First time daily closed above 200 ema since september 2015.

Soros reminds potential black friday if brexit came true...
not euphoria follower
  • #432,895
  • Jun 20, 2016 9:31pm Jun 20, 2016 9:31pm
Quoting el_duende
Am I the only person left holding his longs?
going for the 150 zone might be a swipe for the stop losses kinda move when the results are in - long from 141 700.
  • #432,896
  • Edited Jun 21, 2016 12:33am Jun 20, 2016 11:56pm | Edited Jun 21, 2016 12:33am
GB pre opening recap

 

  1. monthly 6 periods of balance
  2. weekly 24 periods of balance
  3. daily 3 days of 1 time frame up
  4. Right now price is above yesterday GB range and just above yes. GB value. (edited for price upgrade)
  5. very narrow range of current Tokyo session
  6. current POC(point of control) 14661


below

  1. 146720 yes GB high
  2. 146500 Tokyo cluster (many M30 bars at same round level)
  3. 146405 Tokyo Poor Low (2 M30 bars same low at the bottom of the session)
  4. 146355 Sydney BtB(2 pips above) yesterday GB unchange(close)

far below

  1. 145800 yes. GB TAG of a previous GB ref and pit session tag of the same level
  2. 14492-14495 old multi pass pit GAP (very very interesting for upcoming pit sessions)
  3. 14310-14559 last huge GB gap up (with special attention to the multi pass at 14310-14393)

above

  1. rapid series of old pit & GB session highs 14718 pit/147285 pit/14739 gb/14741 pit/
  2. 2 old pit minus development 14754-14783 / 14787-14796

far above

  1. old GB high 148415 (2015.12.30) back to back with old GB poor high 14844 (2015.12.31)
  2. old multi pass pit gap 148485-148535 (very interesting for pit sessions)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #432,897
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:46am Jun 21, 2016 12:46am
Tokyo high at 147265 is now just 1 pip above old tokyo high(2016.05.31) so it's weak
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #432,898
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:49am Jun 21, 2016 12:49am
waiting for three white soldier confirmation. still hours to go to close daily for sure.
not euphoria follower
  • #432,899
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:52am Jun 21, 2016 12:52am
To add to current recap 148155 (2016 GB high) is obviously possible right above the pit minus developments.
This if the continuation above is confirmed.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #432,900
  • Jun 21, 2016 1:01am Jun 21, 2016 1:01am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 21.06.jpg Size: 162 KB

Pound to fast came to another side his big range. Don't try open short because GBPUSD can give one more shot to up.
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