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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #2,881
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:43am Jun 14, 2016 9:43am
Quoting vvFish
{image}
Thank you for all the work. Good shot
  • #2,882
  • Jun 14, 2016 2:05pm Jun 14, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting mohsen210007
{quote} How about GBP Unemployment Rate , USD PPI . and oil ?
You can trade any news.
But the main is US Federal Funds Rate.
If there are additions or mutations both we will post impl.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,883
  • Jun 14, 2016 2:05pm Jun 14, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting fibo38
{quote} Thank you for all the work. Good shot
...
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,884
  • Edited Jun 15, 2016 11:48am Jun 14, 2016 9:32pm | Edited Jun 15, 2016 11:48am
Quoting vvFish
Wednesday 21:00 15/6/16 US interest rate CRITICAL (US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release. 5% probability trades.

At 4:30 am EST the UK will release Claimant Count Change. Expected at -0.1K after a prior of -2.4K.
At 2:30 pm EDT the Press Conference may provide also some volatility if you want to scalp a few pips. You can watch it live here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/

Thoughts on "smart traders"

On Wednesday, markets expect the FOMC decision, accompanying protocols and Janet Yellen speech in the press conference of the Committee. 4 factors that will seek out markets. Press conference online.
Investors do not plan to change the interest rate, but will closely monitor the "Protocols" and "words" in order to clarify their predictions about the probability of raising interest rates soon, in July.
Prior to the announcement of the results of the markets we laid about 20% chance of a rate hike in July, and 60% chance of a Fed rate increase in December.
Analysts suggest are the key points of the event:
- The interest rate will remain unchanged
- The important role of the latter is weak Non-Farm in the protocols, and its assessment at a press conference. How much important is the signal from the labor market. Data is really abnormal for the current situation, and we have previously written about the strike 40K workers. So overall, this puzzle should be folded Fed.
- Changes in economic expectations on the part of the committee. Recall that inflation almost returned to normal, the revision of the data to improve the economy will be strong enough signal.
- Quantity and quality of references to Brexit (although this factor is not as important in the protocol (but important in principle) as the fate of the referendum will be decided on June 23).
As you can imagine - scripts can be any, the dollar could find and to lose at this point. We can mention only the most "pleasant" to volatility scenario: as the dollar icing on the weak labor market data, while at the same time the US economy shows quite different, they will be the most enjoyable of the positive comments the Fed with respect to the labor market, as well as the revision of projections economic growth to increase.

Good luck everybody!
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,885
  • Jun 15, 2016 11:13am Jun 15, 2016 11:13am
WOW , USD is falling
  • #2,886
  • Jun 15, 2016 11:44am Jun 15, 2016 11:44am
Thursday
1:45
16/6/16
NZ GDP growth
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
The quarterly indicator. Good. But the raspberry can be trampled on the eve of the Fed. Well, that time is sufficient clearance to market came to life.
The situation could be ambiguous, and requires more detailed consideration after Janet Yellen speech.
There is a possibility of a delay, because the publication is not formalized.
The first is to appear quarterly indicator, the second annual. Mainly for this reason, it is a quarterly figure. The subtlety lies in the fact that after the release of the annual quarterly aside - the movement will continue, if the annual without departing - movement can stop if the anti-quarter annual - movement can be rolled back. Follow risks.

Thursday
4:30
16/6/16
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Perhaps more insidious US labor market: Australian delay data conflicts. Very carefully and very closely. Who will wake, do not blame yourself, even if zaboristye movement, since it is not clear what part of the signal can come.
To accept trades AU Employment Change, which is traditionally the first to be published. The second comes percent unemployment, which might conflict (Unemploymet rate).
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,887
  • Jun 15, 2016 6:36pm Jun 15, 2016 6:36pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,888
  • Jun 15, 2016 6:45pm Jun 15, 2016 6:45pm
Thursday
11:30
16/6/16
GB Retail Sales
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Already tired of repeating, but must: a referendum to British statistics - an ambiguous option. About something serious can talk after the results of the referendum, and while on the retail report does not once let us silent quotes

Thursday
14:00
16/6/16
GB Official BA rate
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

No changes are expected.

Thursday
15:30
16/6/16
US Core CPI
(US Core CPI), US, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Fed remains in stand by mode, which means that the statistics for the USD remains relevant and desirable. Lower triggers traditionally risky, when S1 / B1 is better to rely on the movement of all within 15-20p. Risk also adds yoy indicator in the base-year:
US CPI - Core 2.1% which corresponds to the Fed's target level (2%), although the FOMC and not just follow the consumer price index. This situation vesche can relieve tension with small deviations from the fact that news of its forecast.


Thursday
17:30
16/6/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,889
  • Jun 15, 2016 7:23pm Jun 15, 2016 7:23pm
Mr vvfish i traded the aud\usd but i wonder what happened to my trade,please take a look at my chart i went long on the pair at 0.74250,the green upper horizontal line,and had my stoploss at 0.74160,the green lower horizontal line,according to the chart the pair moved 16pips the first 1min before reversing, the uppermost red horizontal line,i wonder why the trailing ea did not follow up the trade and my stoploss got hit,don't know whether my broker has a hand in it,i couldn't even trade the nzd news because my platform started showing "no connection" 2mins before the time,i use alpari
I know no single trade can make me or break me
  • #2,890
  • Jun 15, 2016 7:26pm Jun 15, 2016 7:26pm
Quoting bigpip
Mr vvfish i traded the aud\usd but i wonder what happened to my trade,please take a look at my chart i went long on the pair at 0.74250,the green upper horizontal line,and had my stoploss at 0.74160,the green lower horizontal line,according to the chart the pair moved 16pips the first 1min before reversing, the uppermost red horizontal line,i wonder why the trailing ea did not follow up the trade and my stoploss got hit,don't know whether my broker has a hand in it,i couldn't even trade the nzd news because my platform started showing "no connection"...
the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I know no single trade can make me or break me
  • #2,891
  • Jun 15, 2016 7:49pm Jun 15, 2016 7:49pm
Hey guys. Does anyone here successfully fade the news?
  • #2,892
  • Jun 15, 2016 7:59pm Jun 15, 2016 7:59pm
Quoting bigpip
Mr vvfish i traded the aud\usd but i wonder what happened to my trade,please take a look at my chart i went long on the pair at 0.74250,the green upper horizontal line,and had my stoploss at 0.74160,the green lower horizontal line,according to the chart the pair moved 16pips the first 1min before reversing, the uppermost red horizontal line,i wonder why the trailing ea did not follow up the trade and my stoploss got hit,don't know whether my broker has a hand in it,i couldn't even trade the nzd news because my platform started showing "no connection"...
Alpari has never been a good broker for news.
When a broker platform freezes before the news it is necessary to change the broker.
If you enter the "market" warrant for 1-2 seconds before the news
you will be all right.
I stand exactly the setting in the EA as well as you, and yet he let me down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,893
  • Jun 15, 2016 11:11pm Jun 15, 2016 11:11pm
DAX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,894
  • Jun 15, 2016 11:13pm Jun 15, 2016 11:13pm
Quoting vvFish
DAX {image}
  • #2,895
  • Jun 16, 2016 1:33am Jun 16, 2016 1:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_4.png Size: 35 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,896
  • Jun 16, 2016 1:51am Jun 16, 2016 1:51am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} Alpari has never been a good broker for news. When a broker platform freezes before the news it is necessary to change the broker. If you enter the "market" warrant for 1-2 seconds before the news you will be all right. I stand exactly the setting in the EA as well as you, and yet he let me down. {image}
Please Vvfish,which broker do you use or recommend for news trading
I know no single trade can make me or break me
  • #2,897
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:37am Jun 16, 2016 10:37am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

JUNE 23 - critical data. The whole week will be "tied" to Brexit.

Perhaps, you might receive a warning notice from brokers regarding trade restrictions on June 23 during a British referendum, and these warnings are not casual. It will also be touched upon all aspects of trading in the financial markets.

Before

Prior to the referendum, the markets will probably maintain extremely low liquidity, since many refrain the trade this week.
Low liquidity can provoke an "empty" but "long" volatility - the so-called "thin trading" when prices may move a small number of participants.
Traditional symptom for this situation - Spread the sharp jumps of size larger than usual.
"No price" to complete the transaction on an empty market.
The only significant fundamental news for the instantaneous volatility, perhaps, will be polls and exit polls. In their publication GBP will react very sharply.
Perhaps some brokers prohibit trade in order to preserve its own security's liquidity funds.
The Bank of England paid a lot of attention in their protocols in respect of the vote: a referendum - the greatest risk to the financial markets and the global economy.

During

The effect is reflected in both the GBP, and the "victim" of the EUR.
Cutting will be reaction of the first exit polls.
Perhaps the trade can be banned in most cases.

After

At first, the market reaction.
Then the measures, if they are needed on the part of central banks, especially the ECB, which has already noted the readiness of the liquidity infusion in the event of the UK from the EU.
Stress will be significant in the event, some analysts predict the reduction of GBP 10% against the dollar.

PS The note will be updated as more information becomes available.
We also encourage you this week, perhaps the better to relax.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,898
  • Jun 16, 2016 10:38am Jun 16, 2016 10:38am
Friday
15:30
17/6/16
CA Core CPI
(CA Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,899
  • Jun 16, 2016 1:39pm Jun 16, 2016 1:39pm
who knows about referendum in england, how it will influense on forex pairs?
  • #2,900
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:34pm Jun 16, 2016 8:34pm
Low liquidity can provoke an "empty" but "long" volatility - the so-called "thin trading" when prices may move a small number of participants.
Traditional symptom for this situation - Spread the sharp jumps of size larger than usual.
"No price" to complete the transaction on an empty market.

And so it came to pass.... one MP sadly assassinated allegedly over Brexit and rumor has it the poll will be delayed and 90 pip 1H move just after market open on GU many thanks for your helpful insite.....

Highest Regards
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