If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
- #3,603
- Jun 15, 2016 9:04pm Jun 15, 2016 9:04pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,085 Posts
No one wants to be defeated~
{quote}
You need to have a SL limit within the set in order to prosper on the longer run. You cannot simply 'hope' that the cycle would close in profit. You need to take a hit and then look forward for further growth. The SL could probably be set at 15% considering that you have statistics implying that the DD within the 6 months was continuously below 10%. Zz
For instance, if your daily gain is 0.5%, you need almost 2 months to recover the drawdown
- #3,606
- Jun 15, 2016 11:10pm Jun 15, 2016 11:10pm
{quote} I'm not sure about this: if you accept a 15% stop loss, how many time do you need to recover this drawdown if you are trading with a certain level of daily take profit? For instance, if your daily gain is 0.5%, you need almost 2 months to recover the drawdown
Identifying a proper SL is key for proper recovery. Higher the SL, the more the recovery required Zz
- #3,612
- Jun 16, 2016 5:39pm Jun 16, 2016 5:39pm
- Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
After a week, the June 8th cycle, started as usual @ 18 GMT finally closed thanks to the FOMC statement that pushed the cross @ 1.13. Remember I'm using Low_Risk_A settings. You can see there was a big slump, from 1.14 to 1.12 in 4 trading days. In the meantime, max drawdown was around 70%. It's very disappointing because in 6 months of forward test max drawdown was around 10%.
Truly that was my message, that using Low risk set I guess still not enough to avoid the risk of getting caught by trend. That is where the strategy is now changed, where we have to attach to multiple pairs, and increase the lot as the grid grows. It is way moooore manageable rather than attaching to a single pair and give all risk you have.
lol blowed up one demo acc..... {image}
Probably you have set SL too small and no TP. That's why it hits SL most of the time, and when it does otherwise, your profit jumps. But how long is the time until you get this result is unpredictable. You may get too soon almost blew your account before it recovers back up.
And as I said before, I'll camp for more result of yours. Definitely a week or a month is not enough to proof a sustainable system.
{quote} I'm not sure about this: if you accept a 15% stop loss, how many time do you need to recover this drawdown if you are trading with a certain level of daily take profit? For instance, if your daily gain is 0.5%, you need almost 2 months to recover the drawdown
I've wrote a simple "suck" EA which does just a total random BUY or SELL. If loss on previous one, I'll double on the next order. The result quite good, but then when we put SL into the picture, it's hard to recover. A 2 years backtest gave me cancer because my initial balance and my final balance are almost the same! just differ a few dollars, or even worse to have less balance than the initial.
The thing is that, the SL is on your own hand. Whether now or later to close the trade in loss, it's better to do it manual way.
{quote} All Grid EA(limit order) is working with the strategy against trend. SL does not work for it. It will hit SL before retrace and before you recover from the loss. SL is good for most of other strategies but not for grid (or martingale) system
That's totally true. It does designed to be in loss first, then recovers in profit. In the whole of my learning time about forex, if I draw one straight line between all strategies, you'll find one keyword: retracement. But apparently, most of the strategies redirect people to catch the trend (which is obviously only temporary). The psychology of the buyers and sellers, affects the physics of the price movement. Another sample, China economy can't be too good having a boost in their economy? Slowly it'll went down and find its consolidation position. Same thing in forex trading, or anything like property buying (in Singapore for example).
But now the question is, how strong the trend is, how strong the retracement is, that is something we have to find out.
{quote} You can see that the big slump of last week started without red news.
I guess, what I can take one fine conclusion is that if it trends without news, it should do just fine. In any case your trade is more than 2-3 days, I would close it with loss at the best position. What I mean by the best position is where the retracement is the highest or the better, then close in loss better rather than keep waiting for unfortunate future.
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
- #3,614
- Jun 16, 2016 11:10pm Jun 16, 2016 11:10pm
- Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
- #3,616
- Jun 17, 2016 1:41am Jun 17, 2016 1:41am
- Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
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If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
- #3,617
- Jun 18, 2016 5:21am Jun 18, 2016 5:21am
Pair --> GPBUSD
Starting balance --> 1000$
Backtest Period --> 1 year plus 1 to 3 months..
Stop Loss --> Yes
Project of a friend of mine.. Shared his backtest graph for me to admire lol.. Mind you, the backtest was apparently done with a 1.5 spread which has a higher spread for GU than most ECN brokers.. The EA has the same concept as yours Radityo but he has effectively managed to come up with a mechanism and/or setting where his grid employs a SL.. And this is what I am aiming for using your grid EA..
Irrespective of whoever who says that SL is not possible in grid.. I believe it is.. Perseverance, patience and belief is what is required...
Zz
- #3,619
- Jun 18, 2016 6:01pm Jun 18, 2016 6:01pm
- Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
{image} Pair --> GPBUSD Starting balance --> 1000$ Backtest Period --> 1 year plus 1 to 3 months.. Stop Loss --> Yes Project of a friend of mine.. Shared his backtest graph for me to admire lol.. Mind you, the backtest was apparently done with a 1.5 spread which has a higher spread for GU than most ECN brokers.. The EA has the same concept as yours Radityo but he has effectively managed to come up with a mechanism and/or setting where his grid employs a SL.. And this is what I am aiming for using your grid EA.. Irrespective of whoever who says that...
I can tell why SL is somewhat useless in grid with your own chart. I don't say we can't use SL, nor encourage people to not using it, but just trying to look at the facts first before applying it.
if you take a look at your chart, the fact that reaching at the red arrow is considered being "okay" and quite lucky. Now, half of the backtest (first half year) was quite useless, because in the beginning your SL touched very often. While half after, it touched once only and continued.
Now, if you press your luck by giving a bigger SL, you'll end up in slight loss at the end of the balance. How about a lower SL like 25% of the balance? You can do that, but it will be touched very often. And most importantly (if you use LIMIT), you can't catch the retracement.
So, it's a trivial situation actually. One side is safer but other side slow on growth or break even. And it depends on how often your SL is touched, so it's very random situation to me.
Probably.......... this can help. (you can't backtest this anyway).
If you see the donation box set files (multi pairs), so far it's quite unlikely reaching floating loss more than half of the balance. But quite often reaching 75% of the balance. you can set the stop loss to 50% of the balance (SL
ynamic, type:Balance, SL multiplier: -0.5). And see for the result.
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
- #3,620
- Jun 18, 2016 6:04pm Jun 18, 2016 6:04pm
- Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
{quote} Would you please update it? I would like put it on live account ASAP.
I'm on my vacation now till thursday, got no access to my development laptop. But I'll see what I can do...
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...