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  • #432,181
  • Edited 1:24pm Jun 11, 2016 12:41pm | Edited 1:24pm
its just a crazy to say they would not do business make trade agreements with us ,
were not insignificant to EU on trade
trade will carry on exactly the same going forward ,how could it not,
So the vote stay is flawed,their only argument ,gotta put up with all that other negativity to access a market ,going forward would have anyway ,
They tariff us ,we tariff them ,they lose,could well be we buy more British goods on that outcome,

UK trade deficit with EU hits new record,May 2016
,The latest healthcheck from the Office for National Statistics on goods coming in and going out of the UK reveal that the gap between exports and imports in the first three months of 2016 widened by 0.7bn to 23.9bn.

But then we can deal directly with the rest of the world also,which the EU haven't a good track record
Move Brussels to London and say do you want this un-touchable look after your freinds government ,the answer is no without doubt,worse than old labour

Old Labour was more left wing, and supported the idea of increasing taxes to pay for public services such as education and health.

Quoting gammase1
{quote} This isn't true. Yes, the UK buys more from the EU than it sells. But the UK relies on the EU for 45% of its exports, whereas the UK is the destination for under 15% of EU exports. Clearly, the EU would have the upper hand in any trade negotiations post-Brexit. A trading block the size of the EU can dictate better terms on trade deals than the UK can on its own, due to the fact that the EU can offer other countries access to a market of 500 million people.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,182
  • Jun 11, 2016 1:23pm Jun 11, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting Bones
its just a crazy to say they would not do business make trade agreements with us , were not insignificant to EU on trade trade will carry on exactly the same going forward ,how could it not, So the vote stay is flawed,their only argument ,gotta put up with all that other negativity to access a market ,going forward would have anyway , They tariff us ,we tariff them ,they lose,could well be we buy more British goods in that outcome, UK trade deficit with EU hits new record,May 2016 ,The latest healthcheck from the Office...
How can you say the EU does not have a good record in trading with the rest of the world? Germany does okay with the rest of the world, don't you think?

We're not insignificant but the impact of tariffs will have a more detrimental effect on the UK economy than the EU's.

Which country currently has full, tariff-free access to the single market without allowing free movement of people, without having to ensure EU standards are met on products exported and without paying any fee for this access?

Not Norway, Switzerland, Turkey (services and agriculture, 70% of Turkey's GDP are not included), Iceland or Canada. So how could trade carry on exactly as before, after we choose to exit the single market.

I think it incredibly unlikely that we will be allowed to leave, then not to have to pay any fees, not accept any EU rules or directives and not accept free movement of people. But will instead be given full access, as before, for all our goods and services. If we vote to leave, there will be a 2-year period of negotiation, the uncertainty created during this period will cause a huge fall in investment in the UK, as businesses hold fire until there is more certainty.
  • #432,183
  • Jun 11, 2016 1:46pm Jun 11, 2016 1:46pm
British Businesses do not need the EU to trade
In addition to the lucrative trade and investment deals with the rest of the world, Britain imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU.
This means we are the EU’s biggest customer – larger than China and the US – and no business – let alone the EU – would want to cut off ties with such a valuable customer as Britain.

Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe.
Britain has the world’s 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in Europe by 2035.
The EU’s share of world GDP is in terminal decline. In 1980, the EU’s world share of GDP was 26%. It is now just 20%, and will have fallen to 15% by 2020.

Currently all Britain’s trade deals must be negotiated by the EU, which on average take twice as long or more to agree and finalise than those negotiated by independent countries, such as Switzerland.

Britain has opposed 55 EU Directives since 1996, and has been outvoted every time – Our EU membership gets us nowhere.
In addition, it is estimated around 70% of decisions made in the EU Council of Ministers are already implemented before they reach the voting stage.
An independent Britain would regain its own seat within international institutions such as the World Trade Organisation, in which Britain can pursue its own national interests.
(there are no other major international organisations which the EU fully represents us, largely smaller fisheries bodies etc)
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,184
  • Jun 11, 2016 1:52pm Jun 11, 2016 1:52pm
let me ask you would you vote for the brussels set up as our government ?is fear of possible less trade enough to do so?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,185
  • Jun 11, 2016 1:54pm Jun 11, 2016 1:54pm
Quoting Bones
Hi immigration isn't a problem per se , ok but sheer numbers are ,open borders with non equal economies ,good reason to come here ,yet completely different cultures put simply the migration is huge ,and going forward new members will make it worse ,with Turkey threatening to unleash those there on Europe Theres not the space or infrastructure let alone the cost per head coming though state handouts , no way you could trust uk official numbers ,since their own numbers are way under the National Insurance numbers issued "Official figures published...
We are not members of Shengen, so would not be obliged, under EU law, to accept any migrants coming into the EU from Turkey.

Academic studies have shown that inward EU migration has been a net benefit for UK economy - meaning the migrants pay more in than they take out; not surprising, given they are mostly of working age and in good health. Moreover, they will inject demand into the economy and improve our demographics - our birth rate is below 2.1, the replacement rate.

We have room for the current population level in the UK and have room for millions more, in my view. The population density of London (where I live) is 5,100 per sq km, which skews the average for the UK significantly to the upside. I view migration as a success story for London and its powerhouse economy, which is the envy of most of the world. If infrastructure and public services struggle, then you can look at the the public spending cuts and woefully inadequate levels of investment spending from the Conservative government.

You mention lack of sovereignty. Well, we are a country with its own currency (thank f**k), with our own central bank. We have a parliament with fiscal autonomy. And we can unilaterally decide when to drop bombs on a country or when not to,

As for any democratic deficit to which you allude in your post, the UK has a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning the current government is in power with only 25% of the eligible electorate voting for it. We have UKIP (of whom I'm no fan) who received 4 million votes in the last election, but are represented by a single MP. That doesn't sound too democratic to me? How about the unelected House of Lords? How about the legions of Civil Servants in the UK, working behind the scenes unaccountable but wielding great power. How about the Bank of England - independent and un-elected?
  • #432,186
  • Jun 11, 2016 2:08pm Jun 11, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting Bones
let me ask you would you vote for the brussels set up as our government ?is fear of possible less trade enough to do so?
Overall, I view our membership of the EU as being a big positive for the UK and I think it will continue to be the case, if we vote to remain. Is it perfect? Far from it. Is the set up of democracy in the UK (see my previous post) perfect? No, far from it. Would I choose to walk away from either? Definitely not.

The impact on trade and inward investment are huge so form a part of the reason for my vote to remain. Less inward investment, which would undoubtedly arise from the uncertainty caused by a Brexit and the subsequent protracted negotiations, and any barriers and/or costs to trade would have a very real impact on jobs and economic prospects in the UK.
  • #432,187
  • Jun 11, 2016 2:18pm Jun 11, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting Bones
British Businesses do not need the EU to trade In addition to the lucrative trade and investment deals with the rest of the world, Britain imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU. This means we are the EUs biggest customer larger than China and the US and no business let alone the EU would want to cut off ties with such a valuable customer as Britain. Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe. Britain has the worlds 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in...
No one is saying they will cut off ties.

Using other countries' trade agreements with the EU, it is reasonable to assume that access to the single market will come with strings attached: tariffs (Canada on many goods, Turkey on services, Iceland on agriculture and fisheries - their main exports), the adoption of many EU Directives (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Turkey), payment towards the EU budget (Norway and Switzerland,,,), free movement of people (Norway and Switzerland,,,).

Yes, we are the EU's biggest export market, accounting for 15% of its total. But our exports to the EU constitute 45% of our total. So which of the two economies would be in the weaker negotiating position post-Brexit?

Anyway, the football in on now.
  • #432,188
  • Jun 11, 2016 2:22pm Jun 11, 2016 2:22pm
Propably somewhere on FF this question been asked a few times, but I'm wondering (and worrying) what will happen to UK brokers and/or our balances, ability to withdraw, etc, if UK exits EU?
  • #432,189
  • Edited 3:15pm Jun 11, 2016 2:59pm | Edited 3:15pm
Come on if you find fault with our own system ,you must see what Brussels is
Were talking un-Elected ,nominated ,old failed politicians working the gravy train how much worse can it be,major USSR simularities
Forget the trade argument ,we could go on ,this is bigger
Brussels in London same set up vote yes or no

btw immigration ,we are not New America ,we haven't the housing or infrastructure ,100s of years of our culture going down the drain over time

points system ,yea makes sense
persecution ,yea hold out your hand
huge economic migration here on a epic scale from completely different cultures come on can't be good ,

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/652...bies-born-here

imo immigration is good but needs to be controlled
Quoting gammase1
{quote} We are not members of Shengen, so would not be obliged, under EU law, to accept any migrants coming into the EU from Turkey. Academic studies have shown that inward EU migration has been a net benefit for UK economy who received 4 million votes in the last election, but are represented by a single MP. That doesn't sound too democratic to me? How about the unelected House of Lords? How about the legions of Civil Servants in the UK, working behind the scenes unaccountable but wielding great power. How about the Bank of England - independent...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,190
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:14pm Jun 11, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting Bones
Come on if you find fault with our own system ,you must see what Brussels is Were talking un-Elected ,nominated ,old failed politicians working the gravy train how much worse can it be,major USSR simularities Forget the trade argument ,we could go on ,this is bigger Brussels in London same set up vote yes or no btw immigration ,we are not New America ,we haven't the housing or infrastructure ,100s of years of our culture going down the drain over time points system ,yea makes sense persecution ,yea hold out your hand huge migration here on a...
What culture is going down the drain? Culture is an ever evolving phenomenon. I enjoy the same things that I enjoyed decades ago, plus many new experiences that have enriched my life, thanks to immigration to the UK. London is by far richer, culturally and economically, thanks to immigration. Immigration brings challenges, as does remaining static, but the government has policy tools at its disposal to deal with these.

We can build the housing and infrastructure - EU immigrants create demand, generate jobs, pay more into the system than they take out and improve demographics. The government can invest more and recoup additional spending in future tax revenues and higher GDP, particularly with bond yields at record lows, low commodity prices and spare capacity in the economy.

You are right, there are bigger things at stake than trade. There are global challenges such as climate change, war, food security etc... These challenges are best faced by closer relations with our nearest neighbours, not backing off into an isolated position, when we are doing less for the common good of humanity.

Yes, I can see faults with our system and the EU's, both are far from perfect. Would I vote to leave the UK or the EU? Definitely not.
  • #432,191
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:17pm Jun 11, 2016 3:17pm
Yes the UK is a power house in Europe at the moment, but maybe some not should forget "Aufwiedersehen Pat" it is not ages ago that British workers went to the continent because payment there was better. If you only want to take out of the system when you need it but not give back when you can afford it, then you will not make many friends and good trusted tradepartners in the long run ... just saying.
  • #432,192
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:19pm Jun 11, 2016 3:19pm
Quoting Dalchow
Yes the UK is a power house in Europe at the moment, but maybe some should forget "Aufwiedersehen Pat" it is not ages ago that British workers went to the continent because payment there was better. If you only want to take out of the system when you need it but not give back when you can afford it, then you will not make many friends and good trusted tradepartners in the long run ... just saying.
Well said.
  • #432,193
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:41pm Jun 11, 2016 3:41pm
As expected another polls come with 44% remain vs 42% leave..
  • #432,194
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:01pm Jun 11, 2016 4:01pm
ok you don't know theres a problem housing , with or without influx people ,rose spectacles spring to mind ,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30776306


Quoting gammase1
{quote} What culture is going down the drain? Culture is an ever evolving phenomenon. I enjoy the same things that I enjoyed decades ago, plus many new experiences that have enriched my life, thanks to immigration to the UK. London is by far richer, culturally and economically, thanks to immigration. Immigration brings challenges, as does remaining static, but the government has policy tools at its disposal to deal with these. We can build the housing and infrastructure - EU immigrants create demand, generate jobs, pay more into the system than...
Attached Image
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,195
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:05pm Jun 11, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Bones
ok you don't know theres a problem housing , with or without influx people ,rose spectacles spring to mind , http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30776306 {quote} {image}
Problems that can be solved through reforming planning laws and large investment by the government in house-building, the costs of which will be recouped from future tax revenues and GDP growth. As I said previously, there are tools at the government's disposal, if only they would move away from their self-imposed deficit fetish and understand macroeconomics. The government needs to do the heavy lifting.
  • #432,196
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:59pm Jun 11, 2016 4:59pm
little off topic from the current posts, but what are you guys seeing in increase from your broker for margin requirements due to Brexit?
my broker just emailed today. Its doubled temporarily they say.
  • #432,197
  • Jun 11, 2016 5:45pm Jun 11, 2016 5:45pm
Fri Jun 10, 2016 | 5:12 PM EDT
UPDATE 1 -Sterling net shorts post largest increase in 5 years -CFTC, Reuters

X
(New throughout, adds sterling contracts, table, details on
dollar and sterling)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters) - Speculators ramped up their
bets against sterling in the latest week by the most in nearly
five years, as hedge funds and other asset managers struck a
decidedly defensive stance in the British currency two weeks
ahead of a crucial referendum over whether the country should
remain in the European Union.
Sterling net short positions more than doubled to 66,299
contracts, valued at nearly $6 billion, in the week ended June 7
from 32,851 the previous week, according to data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. It was
the largest net short position in sterling in three years, and
the weekly increase was the largest since September 2011.
Speculators have been persistently net short sterling for
about six months. Until the latest reading, however, net short
positioning had fallen substantially from the previous
three-year high hit back in April.
With market participants growing increasingly focused on
what is seen as a toss-up result, open interest in CME sterling
futures has been building. In the latest week, it rose by more
than 15,000 contracts to a three-month high of 259,238 valued at
more than $23 billion.
Sterling on Friday fell to a two-month low in the wake of
the latest poll on the EU referendum, and so far this year, the
British pound was down 3.2 percent.
Britons will vote on June 23 on whether to leave the EU, a
decision with far-reaching implications for politics, the
economy and trade in Europe.
According to a poll by ORB for The Independent newspaper
published on Friday, the "Leave" camp was 10 points ahead of
"Remain". It was the biggest lead enjoyed by those wanting
Britain to quit the 28-member bloc since the poll series started
a year ago, The Independent said.
Net long dollar positioning, meanwhile rose for a third
straight week, with net longs rising to their highest in four
months despite last week's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May
that came way below market expectations.
The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $11.30
billion in the week ended June 7, from $4.86 billion the
previous week.
Position changes were most significant among the reserve
currencies, with notable deteriorations in already bearish
sentiment toward the euro and the British pound.
Swiss franc net positioning has turned bearish from neutral.
The yen, meanwhile, is the largest held net long while the
euro and sterling were the largest held net shorts.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc and
Canadian and Australian dollars.

Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 68,237 46,964
Short 25,384 32,127
Net 42,853 14,837

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 93,492 98,218
Short 160,604 135,872
Net -67,112 -37,654

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 36,337 36,546
Short 102,636 69,397
Net -66,299 -32,851

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 21,644 24,291
Short 31,289 24,162
Net -9,645 129

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 37,421 38,753
Short 15,884 12,494
Net 21,537 26,259

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 35,406 44,560
Short 51,214 49,318
Net -15,808 -4,758

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$1.615 billion
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 22,389 20,193
Short 81,698 75,808
Net -59,309 -55,615

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
07 Jun 2016 Prior week
week
Long 38,562 31,919
Short 30,026 26,415
Net 8,536 5,504

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Diane Craft
and David Gregorio)
  • #432,198
  • Edited 6:37pm Jun 11, 2016 5:46pm | Edited 6:37pm
yea they wont tho ,in all these years ,every year shortfall from target,all compounded
large development on old army barracks got cancelled near me just because it was found a certain bird nested there ,and resistance for building non urban areas is firm ,
fact is still the same , England has become the most overcrowded major country in Europe,theres no way to change that it can only get worse under current situ,its about quality of life as much as anything

what is it you have to build a Liverpool every year just to take the influx ,people coming are young and having babies
already highly populated south is top destination

Quoting gammase1
{quote} Problems that can be solved through reforming planning laws and large investment by the government in house-building, the costs of which will be recouped from future tax revenues and GDP growth. As I said previously, there are tools at the government's disposal, if only they would move away from their self-imposed deficit fetish and understand macroeconomics. The government needs to do the heavy lifting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 265E68DF00000578-2982237-image-m-9_1425629113852.jpg Size: 89 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #432,199
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:05pm Jun 11, 2016 11:05pm
Quoting Bones
British Businesses do not need the EU to trade In addition to the lucrative trade and investment deals with the rest of the world, Britain imports more from the EU than it exports to the EU. This means we are the EUs biggest customer larger than China and the US and no business let alone the EU would want to cut off ties with such a valuable customer as Britain. Britain is a global trading power and exports more to the rest of the world than it does to Europe. Britain has the worlds 6th largest economy and is set to become the largest in Europe...

I agree with you Bones ....Perspective : Thieves jumping your back fence dictating to you the CONDITION of GROUNDS they jumped upon are not fit for them whilst they raid your food cupboard and complain to you the kind of food they stole from you. They will threaten with fear and manipulate so next time they want the goods you have better offerings unwillingly.
  • #432,200
  • Edited 1:42am Jun 12, 2016 1:12am | Edited 1:42am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} This isn't true. Yes, the UK buys more from the EU than it sells. But the UK relies on the EU for 45% of its exports, whereas the UK is the destination for under 15% of EU exports. Clearly, the EU would have the upper hand in any trade negotiations post-Brexit. A trading block the size of the EU can dictate better terms on trade deals than the UK can on its own, due to the fact that the EU can offer other countries access to a market of 500 million people.
The EU is undemocratic. The Magna Carta isn't window dressing. It was a hard fought and won cornerstone of democracy. Giving up sovereignty for short term benefits is like giving away your country for a handful of beads. 55% of UK trade is with the rest of the world and growing. And the Eurozone will want to continue trade after a Brexit. The idea that they will have the upper hand is pure fear mongering on behalf of those who benefit from the Eurozone socialist state. The UK is the second largest importer of German cars after the US and fourth largest for engineering parts globally. Germany will cut a deal. Eurozone growth has been anemic compared to the rest of the world in the same period because of corruption, over-regulation, and trade barriers. It isn't working and they want to drag the UK down with their sinking ship.

Of the 65 UK objections to the governing council, ALL 65 were rejected by Brussels. It's obvious the EU acts with impunity when it comes to their interests over the UK's. The EU leaders aren't democratically elected so no one in the UK has any say on who their leaders are if they choose to remain. It will stifle any dissent on behalf of the UK to protect her local interests and would be a defacto end of democracy for the UK as European unification moves forward. If you don't like the PM you put into office, you can chalk it up as a mistake and elect someone new. That won't happen under the EU. You will give up the power to remove the people who govern you. This is the single most important factor of the decision to remain or leave. Switzerland has a thriving economy in comparison to the European member states (excluding Germany) and has good trade deals with the EU. So the argument that the UK can't do the same doesn't hold water.

Greece is what loss of sovereignty looks like in the worst case scenario. Because they couldn't pay their EU debts Brussels privatized all of their productive industries and assets. Greece lost everything.

The Hellenic Company for Assets and Participation (EDIS) is the name for the new Privatization Super-Fund that will claim ownership of all assets of the Greek state including 70,000 real estate properties, all major state-run enterprises like utility companies (electricity, water) and public transport (buses, metro etc), state shares in banks and the assets currently in the old/current Privatization Fund (Hellenic Republic Assets Development Fund/HRADF).
According to the multi-bill submitted to the Parliament, the first group of state-run enterprises to be transferred to HCAP are:

  1. urban transport organizations: OASA (Blue Buses), STASY (urban Rail Transport/urban train, tram, metro) ΟSY (road transport)
  2. Hellenic Post
  3. Olympic Stadium Management Organization (OAKA)
  4. ELVO (Hellenic Vehicle Industry)
  5. Olympic Stadium Management Organization (OAKA)
  6. Water Company of Athens (EYTHAP) and Thessaloniki (EYTHATH)
  7. Public Power Company (DEH)
  8. Public Holdings Company

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/201...eubles-wishes/

The UK obviously isn't in the same position as Greece. But forfeiture of assets could happen to any member state who has an economic downturn. They could even suffer a manufactured crisis caused by bad terms dictated by Brussels.

If you look at the handling of the TTIP agreement, it says a lot about how the EU operates. The terms of the agreement are so secret they won't let the EU citizens read it. Even the Eurozone MEPs aren't allowed to read the full agreement, only an edited version, and aren't allowed to write down what it says. It shows a complete disregard for transparency or respect for the democratic process.

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