Falling Knives | Page 78 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Sky is Falling Tomorrow (Option Strategy) 9 replies

NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, falling off the cliff together-- 16 replies

Why Is Cable Falling? 5 replies

Shorting the cable (Is London Bridge Falling Down?) 38 replies

Euro falling to 1.20??? 1 reply

Attachments: Falling Knives
Exit Attachments

Falling Knives

  • #1,541
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:38am Jun 10, 2016 12:38am
Bad day for UCHF and UJ so far...unfortunately hedges got liquidated too early by EA...w'll see how it is going on...?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Iresh UCHF.png Size: 76 KB
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,542
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:46am Jun 10, 2016 12:46am
Quoting jdva
Bad day for UCHF and UJ so far...unfortunately hedges got liquidated too early by EA...w'll see how it is going on...? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Iresh UJ.png Size: 75 KB
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,543
  • Edited 2:35am Jun 10, 2016 1:04am | Edited 2:35am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Having an adequate balance definitely helps keep the pressure off.. {image}
Amen.. the root cause of my emotional interventions the last few days. I will be watching your 28 pairs closely because the new Iresh version should be improved like you said.
But besides this SL is on 1000 now but if DD still get's into the hundreds ones a while.. and that will only happen let's say twice a week. Will it not be better to set SL to something lower, for example average daily profit.

For 7 pairs that would be 100 or two days total of 200. That way we lose (cut loss) but at the end of the week we still have profit. Finding the optimal SL value that we can set ?. I am going to test that in Demo.

We all know by now that Iresh will handle it but nobody can accept big DD in Live at some point. Or the balance will have to be big enough but you have to have a brave heart But with the great gain that Iresh produces an emergency treshold can be recovered pretty easy. This is the first EA that shows that (I've seen many..).

This is not as easy as it is.. And for every x pairs setup the SL would be different.
"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" - Spock
  • #1,544
  • Jun 10, 2016 1:08am Jun 10, 2016 1:08am
Quoting SpencerBizze
So quite interesting the comparisons between my Live account on Hotforex (VPS in Netherlands, 3ms latency) and my Demo on Roboforex (VM in my SA server farm 200ms latency). The Hotforex seems to be performing allot better watching it. I think Roboforex is doing something odd, as you will see the buy/sell positions are sitting well off the Market price on the chart. Looks like it is just floating. Then you compare with the HF charts for the same trades it is nice and tight and the slippage and spreads are better. What you guys thinking for tomorrow......
Roboforex was perfect for EA 2-3 years ago, I wonder why their service worsened... Hotforex is both good for manual and EA I have account there as well.
  • #1,545
  • Jun 10, 2016 1:51am Jun 10, 2016 1:51am
...don't worry about the future, everything will be all right or my motto "persistence and patience are the key to success°...!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Iresh EA2.png Size: 53 KB
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,546
  • Jun 10, 2016 2:03am Jun 10, 2016 2:03am
Quoting jdva
...don't worry about the future, everything will be all right or my motto "persistence and patience are the key to success...! {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Iresh UChf1.png Size: 66 KB
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,547
  • Edited 2:34am Jun 10, 2016 2:05am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting jdva
{quote} {image}
I was following your pair, not in my setup available. Was seeing that it was going the right way. Congrats
"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" - Spock
  • #1,548
  • Jun 10, 2016 2:31am Jun 10, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Johnhere
{quote} I was following you pair, not in my setup available. Was seeing that it was going the right way. Congrats
yes, thx...all's well that ends well, but as you have already said, in a live environment you definitely need a brave heart or simply ignoring your charts...but that could become dangerous as well...
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #1,549
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:30am Jun 10, 2016 4:30am
Here are 3 of the accounts I am testing with the Licensed Version.

The original 7 pairs, profit on the day is just over $53.
The original 16 Pairs, profit on the day is -$90
28 Pairs, with the High Impact News pairs sitting out...$100.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: f1.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: f2.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: f3.png Size: 37 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,550
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:42am Jun 10, 2016 4:42am
The idea of testing 28 pairs with a martingale(ish) ea on a $3000 account is, well...let's just say it.

Fucking CRAZY!


This wasn't a full week of the 28, but has still seen a couple days of market exposure and though has 28 pairs in tow, isn't necessarily trading them all on any given day or session. Selective pairs to be traded that aren't impacted by the news are going to typically just run their current course of trend...this is where the FKIC does best.

Gambling on trend during high impact, as we have already seen during all of the last NFPs haven't fared well for this logic.

When in doubt, sit them out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: f4.png Size: 46 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,551
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:55am Jun 10, 2016 4:55am
Quoting Magix
The idea of testing 28 pairs with a martingale(ish) ea on a $3000 account is, well...let's just say it. Fucking CRAZY! This wasn't a full week of the 28, but has still seen a couple days of market exposure and though has 28 pairs in tow, isn't necessarily trading them all on any given day or session. Selective pairs to be traded that aren't impacted by the news are going to typically just run their current course of trend...this is where the FKIC does best. Gambling on trend during high impact, as we have already seen during all of the last...
Seems to smooth out things nicely. Any idea what the lowest %margin got in to?
  • #1,552
  • Jun 10, 2016 5:01am Jun 10, 2016 5:01am
Quoting Go5
{quote} Seems to smooth out things nicely. Any idea what the lowest %margin got in to?
Not that you can entirely trust the stats of myfxbook...

But using the custom analysis from the last 3 days, (when all 28 have been in test) shows max DD of just over 4%.
Link

From me watching, yesterday I seen around $300 in Draw due to the GBPJPY acting a little cunty...that's with the dragon and all pairs combined for draw.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ca.png Size: 67 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,553
  • Jun 10, 2016 5:21am Jun 10, 2016 5:21am
According to the FF calendar, next week has a couple of seriously hairy days!!

Be a lot of work to just sit out the pairs that won't be trading these days, but I think it's going to prove to be well worth the effort.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: c1.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: c2.png Size: 48 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,554
  • Jun 10, 2016 6:49am Jun 10, 2016 6:49am
Quoting Magix
The idea of testing 28 pairs with a martingale(ish) ea on a $3000 account is, well...let's just say it. Fucking CRAZY! This wasn't a full week of the 28, but has still seen a couple days of market exposure and though has 28 pairs in tow, isn't necessarily trading them all on any given day or session. Selective pairs to be traded that aren't impacted by the news are going to typically just run their current course of trend...this is where the FKIC does best. Gambling on trend during high impact, as we have already seen during all of the last...
F'ing awesome. I like it.
I am going to setup some acc's and join you, nice work.
  • #1,555
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:25am Jun 10, 2016 11:25am
Quoting SpencerBizze
{quote} F'ing awesome. I like it. I am going to setup some acc's and join you, nice work.
If I thought that 28 pairs could survive next week with the same account start and without the Closing on High Impact News days, I'd run a side by side comparison.

Thing is, by just looking at the draws and possible loss potential on 16 pairs, running the full 28 pair gambit is just a waste of testing space.

I will however look to do some account adjustments and have a fresh start of 28 pairs next week on a $3k balance, just to see how it will work out.

If you look at the Press day on Wednesday, there won't be a lot of pairs in trade and even with the shut down on High Impact Currencies, there could still be a lot of market whipsaw.

I think the value of the day/time filter will be realized greatly over the next 3 weeks.
Big press next week...
Brexit referendum the following...
NFP after that...

Really, if we can successfully concur these 3 weeks, moving forward into next year up to the second week of December and after the 3 week of January should be an absolute Breeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!
(I always sit out the end of December and first few weeks of January...my personal time)
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,556
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:39am Jun 10, 2016 11:39am
One of the questions/comments I have seen over the past couple years of testing, is why not throw this at a $20k-$30k live account?
I think that anybody that has done any testing and especially with a trader of this nature already knows the why...don't we?

For me, the value in having something that will test on a $2k-$3k account means you can scale up. If you require a cushion of tens of thousands, the risk is just immensely too high and wouldn't really serve to be of much benefit.

Moving as I have with the EAs, taking 1 account and doubling it to 2 accounts and growing from there makes infinitely more sense than throwing all of the eggs into a single basket.

So...why not start with a single account, wait for a double on it, approx 2 months, split off, rinse and repeat?
Spread the wealth with a couple of brokers and continue to test them for spreads, entries and exits by way of profitability?

Really...we could tie up $10k in a single account and be very well padded for just about anything...but why?

Over the last couple of months in working with the FK and IC EA's, we've never needed more than $2k in an account for it to continue to grow and would be very well protected with $3 to carry...

As we move closer to a Live Launch on personal, the possibilities for moving forward with FKIC are infinite. Knowing that there are some that are already working with this live, why not explore all of the options, spread out a few ideas, pad the accounts sufficiently and let the logic do the rest?

By means of open discussion...I don't think it could hurt to cover more than a couple of different ideas.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,557
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:40am Jun 10, 2016 11:40am
To my understanding, there may be the availability for purchase as early as the weekend and from what I can ascertain about this is that there will be a premier offer. Once I have final word, I will be opening a thread under the Commercial Section for details and be working as technical support for the Live Licenses, though will not be issuing any keys for them.

Licensing will be handled through an email address, separate from current.

Do not email me, or the current address for licenses, costs or methods of payment...I don't have any information on this!

The Free Key version will still be available until July 2, though I will wind down on issuing keys after the end of next week.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,558
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:45am Jun 10, 2016 11:45am
Quoting Magix
{quote} If I thought that 28 pairs could survive next week with the same account start and without the Closing on High Impact News days, I'd run a side by side comparison. Thing is, by just looking at the draws and possible loss potential on 16 pairs, running the full 28 pair gambit is just a waste of testing space. I will however look to do some account adjustments and have a fresh start of 28 pairs next week on a $3k balance, just to see how it will work out. If you look at the Press day on Wednesday, there won't be a lot of pairs in trade and...
I am very interested to see how it will work out.
What have your unclosed floating DD's been on the 28 pair acc? That's what matters to me, real profit DD is important but not when you ridding the Lightning on our tinnie accounts we playing with.
Currently my max on my live acc has only USD330, but was there for 10mins and quickly recovered, but needed the room to bounce there, was close with a 500 account with a 400 SL set, lol.

I am interested to try the 28 pairs with a very careful in and out strat, so any pairs that have high impact news or cross talk on news must be out on high impact days.
Took the fam out for dinner and HF (hit my limit) are blocking me opening another account, so need to do a little looking around for another broker.

Magix, what's your prefered broker non-us ideally?
Is tickmill any good, do they have a micro account and do they accept skrill?
They key is what is the latency like to them from a Europe VPS, my servers normally sit in the Netherlands to HF I am getting 3ms which is what you want.

My live acc kicked some ass today USD143 for the day!
  • #1,559
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:10pm Jun 10, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting SpencerBizze
{quote} I am very interested to see how it will work out. What have your unclosed floating DD's been on the 28 pair acc? That's what matters to me, real profit DD is important but not when you ridding the Lightning on our tinnie accounts we playing with. Currently my max on my live acc has only USD330, but was there for 10mins and quickly recovered, but needed the room to bounce there, was close with a 500 account with a 400 SL set, lol.


Running really tight there!

If I was to speculate, we probably had the same pairs in DD yesterday during the Dragon Draw...I seen around $300 but never really paid much mind to it, so wouldn't be hugely surprised if hit the same number.

Today, I think I was close to the $300 number again on the 28 pairs, GBPAUD having a bit cranky reversal on original direction, current is floating just under $10, GBPAUD trades closed out.

Quoting SpencerBizze
I am interested to try the 28 pairs with a very careful in and out strat, so any pairs that have high impact news or cross talk on news must be out on high impact days.
Sitting out the High Impact days may still offer some serious situations as we can never really guarantee what the day will offer, this just keeps us in the highest probability trade situations for prosperity.

Quoting SpencerBizze
HF (hit my limit) are blocking me opening another account, so need to do a little looking around for another broker. Magix, what's your prefered broker non-us ideally? Is tickmill any good, do they have a micro account and do they accept skrill? They key is what is the latency like to them from a Europe VPS, my servers normally sit in the Netherlands to HF I am getting 3ms which is what you want. My live acc kicked some ass today USD143 for the day!
I don't know what you mean about HF hitting your limit and are blocking you from opening another account??

I've had as many as 5 accounts running with HF prior to closing out all.

I do use tickmill as one of 3 of my brokers and do like their overall performance. Not a lot of downtime, actually haven't seen any in a couple years and no other issues to speak of.

As far as recommending brokers, I've never really been comfortable doing this, even when I was an IB...Tickmill served me well with a large group of others at my house and I've continued my relationship with them strictly from a trader...ie, I'm no longer an IB.
Not sure of their payment options, that you'd have to check out for yourself, but Skrill is pretty standard.

As for latency...I actually don't really much pay mind as much as I do to comparisons on live from broker to broker. If I notice one sliding, I shift a couple of accounts and lean a little heavier on another and even with 3 current brokers, I too am still on a constant look.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,560
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:35pm Jun 10, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting SpencerBizze
My live acc kicked some ass today USD143 for the day!

Oh...

And Nice Job on the Week, Man!

Looks awesome on the day and week for ya!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
1 trader viewing now