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NZD/USD, CAD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/CHF, falling off the cliff together--

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Jul 27, 2007 11:25am Jul 27, 2007 11:25am
Seriously, why? all of them together in one time frame????
Quoting Vlad
Seriously, why? all of them together in one time frame????
High yielders are susceptible to pullbacks on global risk aversion. I don't know why you're puzzled, this is a great time to look for great levels to long again.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
It sure is, but this thing apparently is bottomless...
Quoting Vlad
It sure is, but this thing apparently is bottomless...
I look at the charts and see consolidation, and momentum gathering for another thrust. The question is which direction.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting DutchTrader
I look at the charts and see consolidation, and momentum gathering for another thrust. The question is which direction.
Agreed. So I'm heading off to the beach....
Quoting HalifaxCB
Agreed. So I'm heading off to the beach....
Headed Downtown, with a pocketfull of pips
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
Quoting Vlad
Seriously, why? all of them together in one time frame????
Vlad -

With your permission, I think this would be a good question to use to illustrate a point: the difference in what we think SHOULD happen and what CAN happen is often very large.

When we have an outlook or belief for how we think things "should" behave, it is bewildering and confusing when things start to misbehave. I know the feeling. I don't want my beliefs to be wrong - when they appear to be wrong it's a natural reaction to search for reasons and assign accountability to these alterations.

It is probably a good thing to remember that corrections can come at any time and look much more severe than what we may have conceived. Thank you for your post, it reminds me that I have been around for a while in the trading world and these things don't seem so confusing and bewildering as they did a few years back. The rush to find reasons is not as great anymore - I like the thought of going to the beach until things settle down!

-=DAVE=-
Quoting DutchTrader
Headed Downtown, with a pocketfull of pips
Nothing like spreading a little good cheer
Megadave- those are good points - one has to expect the unexpected in this game...and after a blowout like the last couple of days its great just to pick up and walk away. The neat thing is that when you are out at the beach, or hitting downtown, or whatever is that's when your subconcious get to work sorting this all out, making you a little bit more ready for the next time round. I especially recommend a delightful snooze in the sand with a light onshore breeze and a gentle surf & a lovely companion.....
Quoting Vlad
It sure is, but this thing apparently is bottomless...
You sound worried. Are you currently long and in hope mode?
Mr. Trend
God, there's nothing worse than "Hope Mode".

It's shitty when you're new...do you remember a time when sometimes it seemed almost BETTER to blow a small account...and then KNOW it was over, rather than wringing your hands because you are to proud and dumb to let go of a loser?
Quoting JasonGuillen
God, there's nothing worse than "Hope Mode".

It's shitty when you're new...do you remember a time when sometimes it seemed almost BETTER to blow a small account...and then KNOW it was over, rather than wringing your hands because you are to proud and dumb to let go of a loser?
Yep. Except it wasn't all that small. But finally deciding to shut it down felt almost as good as a really good win because it meant I had taken control back; and in the long run was a relatively inexpensive form of education.
Quoting Mr Trend
You sound worried. Are you currently long and in hope mode?
Most probably. I remember being like that myself.
I changed. Now I never expect a trend to continue or reverse. I simply win in both conditions
Quoting Mr Trend
You sound worried. Are you currently long and in hope mode?

yes..
So do you think this downtrend with the USD/CAD is over for a while?

Larry Liles
Quoting LarryLiles
So do you think this downtrend with the USD/CAD is over for a while?

Larry Liles
I don't, not until it gets up past the 1.1250 level, by which time any change of fundamentals should be clear. But a good bounce up is expected since it's been trading against JPY like the other risky ccy's (NZD & Aud) since March, so the pull back there is (as should be expected) just as strong. The USD has been much more sedate against JPY, which in turn implies (as JPY seems to be the real driver at the moment) correction in the USD/CAD.

Given a guess at the immediate future, I'd look for a ranging market, maybe on the order of 2-300p a week, for a few weeks. Could all change come Monday morning, however
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Jul 29, 2007 10:28pm Jul 29, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting Vlad
It sure is, but this thing apparently is bottomless...
I think the best thing is to take this whole downturn of the carry trade one day at a time. Right now, I don't think anybody really knows how deep this correction will be or how long it will last.
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