Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

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#432,121
Jun 10, 2016 1:19am Jun 10, 2016 1:19am

Feo
| Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 622 Posts

And cable should go to 1.4975 now

Forex, awful to watch, AWESOME to play

#432,122
Jun 10, 2016 1:27am Jun 10, 2016 1:27am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Quoting Feo

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And cable should go to 1.4975 now

Ignored

4975???

500 pips! is that a typo or do you mean it and when do you think that will happen, one day, couple of days or in a week?

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#432,123
Jun 10, 2016 1:43am Jun 10, 2016 1:43am

iamawaited
| Joined May 2016 | Status: Big Bears All the Way! | 221 Posts

i THINK EURGBP is driving this market right now. EG is finding it hard to get below the circled zone so because of that the GU move up is stalling or going lower. when hopefully EG hits 0.7887 i will load another long on GU.i believe EG has to touch there to fulfill all righteousness. lets see how it goes.

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#432,124
Jun 10, 2016 1:43am Jun 10, 2016 1:43am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Piece of news that came out yesterday, George Soros is getting back into trading and the only reason I can see is he wants to replicate his infamous "Break the Bank of England" trade where he shorted the pound to the tune of 10 Billion back in 1992 and made a staggering 1 Billion of that trade and it was worked out the actual cost to the British economy of that single trade was 3.5 Billion.
So if my thinking is correct the big players are coming back to smash the Pound and instead of the estimates in the region of 14 Billion pound hit to the economy I'm tipping more like a 50 Billion pound hit. Will treasury see this coming and what can they do to mitigate total disaster!!!!!!!

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#432,125
Jun 10, 2016 1:55am Jun 10, 2016 1:55am

JimmyC
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 3,071 Posts

To change polarity, you first need to break above and confirm 1.477xx area, channel up might get you there...

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G/L

#432,126
Jun 10, 2016 2:29am Jun 10, 2016 2:29am

iamawaited
| Joined May 2016 | Status: Big Bears All the Way! | 221 Posts

Quoting iamawaited

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i THINK EURGBP is driving this market right now. EG is finding it hard to get below the circled zone so because of that the GU move up is stalling or going lower. when hopefully EG hits 0.7887 i will load another long on GU.i believe EG has to touch there to fulfill all righteousness. lets see how it goes. {image}

Ignored

EGBP is now trying to attain that level while GU is trying whipsaw stunts or going lower. lets see...

oh!! that sweet martingale buy spot on EU too???

Trading Eternal...... Shiny & Chrome!!!!

#432,127
Jun 10, 2016 2:35am Jun 10, 2016 2:35am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Quoting iamawaited

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{quote} EGBP is now trying to attain that level while GU is trying whipsaw stunts or going lower. lets see... oh!! that sweet martingale buy spot on EU too???

Ignored

All time frames up to 4hr in negative territory atm, need to at least get to 4500 to change direction IMHO

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#432,128
Jun 10, 2016 2:44am Jun 10, 2016 2:44am

iamawaited
| Joined May 2016 | Status: Big Bears All the Way! | 221 Posts

Quoting HaLBot

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{quote} All time frames up to 4hr in negative territory atm, need to at least get to 4500 to change direction IMHO

Ignored

Yeah Maybe but to me it dont really matter since i see Cable in BULLISH VIEW till 1.477X which is my own view point. Till then i shall take only long positions on this pair.

Trading Eternal...... Shiny & Chrome!!!!

#432,129
Jun 10, 2016 3:02am Jun 10, 2016 3:02am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Over 4450 I see a good buying oppotunity, with momentum on our side, that is if it can get above there!!!!!

DP pivot at 4475....

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#432,130
Jun 10, 2016 4:21am Jun 10, 2016 4:21am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

OK this time Cable....come on you can do this, 1.4500 is not that far away....Honestly

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#432,131
Jun 10, 2016 5:09am Jun 10, 2016 5:09am

gammase1
Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,739 Posts

Quoting HaLBot

Disliked

Piece of news that came out yesterday, George Soros is getting back into trading and the only reason I can see is he wants to replicate his infamous "Break the Bank of England" trade where he shorted the pound to the tune of 10 Billion back in 1992 and made a staggering 1 Billion of that trade and it was worked out the actual cost to the British economy of that single trade was 3.5 Billion. So if my thinking is correct the big players are coming back to smash the Pound and instead of the estimates in the region of 14 Billion pound hit to the economy...

Ignored

How do you arrive at a 50 billion hit? The UK holds roughly 100bn in foreign exchange reserves, so a 50bn hit would imply the UK using all its reserves in foreign exchange markets and sterling taking a 50% depreciation. The BOE should not fight any depreciation in sterling and should limit their role, in conjunction with other CBs, to preventing extreme, short-term brutal moves through joint interventions.

The stupid mistakes made by the UK Govt in 1992 were entering into the ERM - which pegged sterling at cripplingly strong rate against the DEM, leading to a period of unnecessarily high interest rates for the UK against a backdrop of economic contraction - and being so stubborn to not admit the mistake of joining the fixed exchange rate mechanism and instead trying to fight the weight of the market. The intervention by Soros and others (the only buyer for GBP on that day was the BOE) actually brought an end to this dreadful monetary union for the UK and the sharp depreciation of sterling was the spark that led to a sharp economic rebound for the UK lasting many years, which more than put that 3.5 billion "loss" into proper perspective.

Soros is extremely bearish about the global economy, namely the risks about China suffering a hard landing, and his focus is not solely aimed at the UK.

#432,132
Jun 10, 2016 5:31am Jun 10, 2016 5:31am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Quoting gammase1

Disliked

{quote} How do you arrive at a 50 billion hit? The UK holds roughly 100bn in foreign exchange reserves, so a 50bn hit would imply the UK using all its reserves in foreign exchange markets and sterling taking a 50% depreciation. The BOE should not fight any depreciation in sterling and should limit their role, in conjunction with other CBs, to preventing extreme, short-term brutal moves through joint interventions. The stupid mistakes made by the UK Govt in 1992 were entering into the ERM - which pegged sterling at cripplingly strong rate against...

Ignored

I just think it's a bit more than coincidence that just before the UK referendum he announces his intentions to resume trading and there would have to be other big players ready to short the pound as well.
As far as the 50 Billion figure is concerned maybe it is a bit high but I think the 14 Billion figure put out is conservative when I see someone like Soros resuming trading and no doubt other big players out there seeing what he accomplished back in 1992 want some of that action.
Yes it did workout much better over time for the UK but this is a very different set of circumstances and if the UK did leave it might lead to a situation where Britain has to deal with a set of hostile EU countries embittered with a country they feel has abandoned them.
I should have explained in my post that the figure of 50 Billion is speculation on my part and thanks for pulling me up on that

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#432,133
Jun 10, 2016 5:44am Jun 10, 2016 5:44am

gammase1
Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,739 Posts

Quoting HaLBot

Disliked

{quote} I just think it's a bit more than coincidence that just before the UK referendum he announces his intentions to resume trading and there would have to be other big players ready to short the pound as well. As far as the 50 Billion figure is concerned maybe it is a bit high but I think the 14 Billion figure put out is conservative when I see someone like Soros resuming trading and no doubt other big players out there seeing what he accomplished back in 1992 want some of that action. Yes it did workout much better over time for the UK but...

Ignored

Agreed on highlighted area. The Brexit campaign has totally lost the economic argument and now relies on pushing immigration fears as being the driver of their case for leaving.

#432,134
Jun 10, 2016 5:58am Jun 10, 2016 5:58am

HaLBot
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 5,200 Posts

Quoting gammase1

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{quote} Agreed on highlighted area. The Brexit campaign has totally lost the economic argument and now relies on pushing immigration fears as being the driver of their case for leaving.

Ignored

I'm sitting here commenting on something that's happening on the other side of the planet but your right there and have a much better understanding of the situation as well as all aspects of trading.
When it came to the crunch the people of Scotland decided to stay with in the UK because they saw it was much better than the alternative and as the UK referendum draws closer the same decision will go through the heads of the people voting. Me personally I think it's better the UK stays in the EU but with the changes a lot of Britains want enacted, otherwise could lead to civil unrest.

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