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Falling Knives

  • #1,081
  • May 30, 2016 10:12am May 30, 2016 10:12am
Quoting ciwong
{quote} Still not working after using 25a... {image}
Remove EA.
Apply EA (without key)
Copy and Paste the unique identifier again please.

Will get ya up n running.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,082
  • May 30, 2016 10:14am May 30, 2016 10:14am
Hi Magix,

I really like to participate ! done with reading all and i have so much respect for you as senior of the seniors developers (i readed all on the net and i think as IT SDM i can tell...) and the way of making this EA and the always great to read stuff from you. Also respect to all others who participate here.
Available for demo and live.

Can i join ? please let me know my VPS is ready to rumble

2812308D11FBA0FDA11E5FC8DC7EBC6E
"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" - Spock
  • #1,083
  • May 30, 2016 10:20am May 30, 2016 10:20am
Quoting Johnhere
Hi Magix, I really like to participate ! done with reading all and i have so much respect for you as senior of the seniors developers (i readed all on the net and i think as IT SDM i can tell...) and the way of making this EA and the always great to read stuff from you. Also respect to all others who participate here. Available for demo and live. Can i join ? please let me know my VPS is ready to rumble 2812308D11FBA0FDA11E5FC8DC7EBC6E

Key = 5C90F70BFD9E1CDCCFADB32975267C36

Welcome Aboard!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,084
  • May 30, 2016 10:23am May 30, 2016 10:23am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Key = 5C90F70BFD9E1CDCCFADB32975267C36 Welcome Aboard!
Woww at the speed of light. Thanks so much Magix !
"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" - Spock
  • #1,085
  • May 30, 2016 10:25am May 30, 2016 10:25am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Remove EA. Apply EA (without key) Copy and Paste the unique identifier again please. Will get ya up n running.
O! I found what wrong it is! I have missing "C" in my account identifier!

Here is the correct code
23C77236297FC9239AF96181BF3990DC
  • #1,086
  • May 30, 2016 10:39am May 30, 2016 10:39am
Quoting ciwong
{quote} O! I found what wrong it is! I have missing "C" in my account identifier! Here is the correct code 23C77236297FC9239AF96181BF3990DC

Key=738BEE42BE572FC00D8A08289B5D7DAB

Let me know if you have any issues.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,087
  • May 30, 2016 10:42am May 30, 2016 10:42am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Key=738BEE42BE572FC00D8A08289B5D7DAB Let me know if you have any issues.
It's working now
  • #1,088
  • May 30, 2016 11:26am May 30, 2016 11:26am
Quoting ciwong
{quote} It's working now


I didn't have a Plan B built...Glad this worked out.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,089
  • May 30, 2016 1:05pm May 30, 2016 1:05pm
Made the changes earlier and everything looks to be working perfectly. Thanks again Magix
  • #1,090
  • May 30, 2016 1:06pm May 30, 2016 1:06pm
Quote
Running live side by demo over the last couple weeks, the difference from one to the other is negligible.

Thanks Magix.
Most small lot trades are br0ker hedged until they can be aggregated large enough to be "put on market". This quite often shows up as 'slippage' even though it is not slippage in actual price, just another way for the br0ker to extract money to pay his cost on his (or other party's) interim hedging. Just that I do not think there is true ECN at small lot size.

Black swans by definition cannot be seen coming. Just like a car accicent. But there are things that can help avoid these. One thing would be the choice of currencies.
I know that there is plenty of action, and for the most part that translates to profit, by 'playing' with JPY (fire?), but they are one currency that is seriously involved in a currency war, and like the chf of late, their central bank is not taking prisoners, and can move it a great distance, and still further again, and again. Not good for countertrend marty systems. These moves are well outside the normal day to day trader moves seen in 'normal' currency trading where just traders are fighting.

A few days trading does not make a system, and the test is in the recovery.
Not being critical, just trying to be real.

Regards,
Harry

p.s I make most of my money on demo accounts also.
  • #1,091
  • May 30, 2016 1:35pm May 30, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting harry99
{quote} Thanks Magix. Most small lot trades are br0ker hedged until they can be aggregated large enough to be "put on market". This quite often shows up as 'slippage' even though it is not slippage in actual price, just another way for the br0ker to extract money to pay his cost on his (or other party's) interim hedging. Just that I do not think there is true ECN at small lot size. Black swans by definition cannot be seen coming. Just like a car accicent. But there are things that can help avoid these. One thing would be the choice of currencies....
Definitely was no disrespect intended as I completely agree with almost everything you've stated.

Slippage, latency, delays...all tough to deal with on M1 charts as well as with smaller profit ranges. These ideas have been taken into consideration on the coding side of the logic and more so on the current version than even the one that expired last week.

It is hard to explain every nuance that I've incorporated into the Iresh traders, so can only say that until you actually work with it live, it's not as easy to pick apart as if was just an idea or something based on backtest reports.

Will there be losses?
Yes.

Will there be more additions to the logic after observation?
Most probably...

But this isn't something that is just a week old...more of something that I have been progressively modifying over the course of the last 8 months by way of version and over the last 3 years by actual idea.

My ultimate goal is to find logic that I could code for round the clock trading in a manner that I trade manually. This isn't as easy as just saying when a fast moving average crosses above a slow moving average, take a long trade...it is what happens after this primary trade gets taken and when do we exit.

There is no single idea that I have come across that could be manually coded without risk or loss...there is no single system that I've worked with that offers 100% perfect trades at any profit range, so I have found some ways to mimic the "What would I do"...

In this, I cost average, I change my mind on direction, I have been known to nedge trades in uncertainty and will absolutely close all trades when I don't feel that I am in a position I can prosper from. All this, in the M1...

My advice Harry, open up another test terminal and giver a whirl...see what you actually think about the merits of the logic prior to painting it with the same broad strokes of previous failures...if in the event you are still of the same mind, we have a couple of options.
1. Discard it and never speak of it again.
2. Point out possible suggestions for improvements. I've come a long way on my own, but have still relied on input from others.

As for the Black Swans...

All those that lost on the previous were greed driven by the prospect of an Easy Pay Day, negligent in their positions or oblivious to the entire situation...
There isn't a gawd damned thing you can do for any of these situations with exception of..

Keep the account size to only the funds you would choose to risk and sit out major events..

I am relatively certain that this week will see some hardships for Iresh and have taken my live funds out of play. As some of the logic tested over the last few weeks hasn't seen NFP week and as NFP week has proven to be a bad week for trend following logic, why would I risk a penny account?

The idea behind these and previous EAs wasn't market perfection...it was to find a place where reasonable risk is met by reasonable reward...going forward, I have every confidence that this is what will be appreciated.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,092
  • May 30, 2016 2:00pm May 30, 2016 2:00pm
Further to the above explained...this is the Real-Time chart on Gold, not by way of specific cherry picked selection on a running a back-test.

From start of week (where I was a little slow to get the new code migrated, there was a nice profit generated, through to each of the subsequent trade sets for profit.

In each of the trade sets(red circles), you can actually see that they may not have nutted perfect positions, but if there was latency, they could have still found a suitable and profitable exit.

The area in Green...

No trades.

The area in green shows a lull in the short sellers and rather than continue to just hammer in trades for the sake of trading, the EA sat out until the trend looked a little more conducive to profitability.

In providing the template under which the logic was written, this was designed to allow the users to not only possibly prosper from the software, but to learn a little about the manual logic.

Take advantage of it!

Go back and analyze the successes and even the trades that close at a net loss...there is a lot that can be learned from just a look back at what is happening, and when.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 221 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,093
  • May 30, 2016 2:07pm May 30, 2016 2:07pm
Magix could I get a code for another test please:

87987C47466F9F036DBA70229C8A0403
  • #1,094
  • May 30, 2016 2:11pm May 30, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting spankworthy
Magix could I get a code for another test please: 87987C47466F9F036DBA70229C8A0403

Key=601FE9F8911BAAF67E6478942ED9FC9F

There you go, sir!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,095
  • May 30, 2016 2:19pm May 30, 2016 2:19pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Key=601FE9F8911BAAF67E6478942ED9FC9F There you go, sir!
Thank you
  • #1,096
  • May 30, 2016 2:28pm May 30, 2016 2:28pm
Thanks again for your reply Magix.

As you say I think we are on the same wavelength.
My experience with marty is that playing with some pairs is like playing with fire. But each to their own.

I will just observe your TE, as I have no interest in trying 'black boxes'. I need to see the logic.

Keep plugging on.

Harry
  • #1,097
  • May 30, 2016 2:33pm May 30, 2016 2:33pm
Quoting harry99
Thanks again for your reply Magix. As you say I think we are on the same wavelength. My experience with marty is that playing with some pairs is like playing with fire. But each to their own. I will just observe your TE, as I have no interest in trying 'black boxes'. I need to see the logic. Keep plugging on. Harry

Special note...I have the current trader to cap lot sizes at .06 on .01 lot size starts with a .01 lot size increment.

And...

The account to watch, would be this one HERE.

16 pairs in tow...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,098
  • May 30, 2016 4:01pm May 30, 2016 4:01pm
Hi Magix,

To a large extent we are still hanging in there together, but there are a few cracks starting to appear.

First difference of opinion is that (most) marty systems fail through greed. I think they fail because they all have the ability to dig a hole. Might only be a small hole to start with, or even a very small hole. But they keep digging. And the only way out is to keep digging. So we then bring in our trading partners, Faith at first, and then Hope, while we keep digging.
The final outcome is the result of luck. Not skill. Not marty method. Just luck. If it doesn't work out too good, thats when we use our last trading friend, Charity.

Secondly I am wary of the false sense of security that comes with trading multiple pairs simultaneously, if the belief (hope) that one pair will mitigate another.
I assume the pairs you use above contain several crosses against the same base currency, JPY for example? They may be totally independent (16 different bases), and if so this view may not apply. However if there is correlation then it is not so risk free. There is the hope that if, for example, the JPY heads south, that by having multiple JPY crosses that the effect will be reduced somewhat. Some crosses will help if they weaken at same time, but some will strengthen at that time, and worsen the situation. The counterparty currency often reacts violently at the same time, just because of world trade interconnectivity.

Some person had a Dragon Correlation marty strategy here on FF, and he assumed he was reducing risk. In actual fact he was magnifying the risk...as he found out a week or two back.

So things are not always what they seem at first look.

Just keep thinking,
Harry
  • #1,099
  • May 30, 2016 4:40pm May 30, 2016 4:40pm
Quoting harry99
Hi Magix, To a large extent we are still hanging in there together, but there are a few cracks starting to appear. First difference of opinion is that (most) marty systems fail through greed. I think they fail because they all have the ability to dig a hole. Might only be a small hole to start with, or even a very small hole. But they keep digging. And the only way out is to keep digging.
And here's where you lost me.

Ya see, Harry...the ideas that separate this from others is that it actually stops digging and starts filling back in.

There is actual trend identification and a point where cost averaging stops if the trend changes and then, the trend logic kicks in to attempt to carry the dead trades back into an either mutual prosperity or an eventual death of the set stopped by a common TP or SL value as for the sum of all trades.

It's not that I don't appreciate what you are saying, it's just that you have no sense of the logic being employed.

Comparison to a standard grid or a standard martingale/cost average system is where you are lost.
Apples to Oranges, wholesale.

Quoting harry99
Secondly I am wary of the false sense of security that comes with trading multiple pairs simultaneously, if the belief (hope) that one pair will mitigate another. I assume the pairs you use above contain several crosses against the same base currency, JPY for example? They may be totally independent (16 different bases), and if so this view may not apply. However if there is correlation then it is not so risk free. There is the hope that if, for example, the JPY heads south, that by having multiple JPY crosses that the effect will be reduced somewhat....
In all actuality, I attempted to pick pairs with the highest ATR's and that seemingly play by the same set of market rules as were applicable to the logic.
The idea of strength and weakness making things better or worse is uniformly applied.

Where a little weakness kicks in, a lot of logic will attempt to free the account of burden. In doing this, effectively nedge trades to help sustain a reasonable draw on margin.

Where a lot of weakness kicks in, a logic will attempt to minimize the damages by exiting at a reduced loss leaving the current trend trades intact.

The thought behind 16 pairs was to effectively see how fast I could blow up the account with the original logic and after 60 days, it still didn't happen.
Will it be the same?
I actually think it may weigh in a little heavier on the profitability side but will leave the logic to speak for itself over the course of this week, what I consider to be the highest probability for failure.

Quoting harry99
. Some person had a Dragon Correlation marty strategy here on FF, and he assumed he was reducing risk. In actual fact he was magnifying the risk...as he found out a week or two back. So things are not always what they seem at first look.
I've checked out the Dragon Correlation Marty...Very impressive for what it can do, but also at how fast it can go from gains to zero in a heartbeat. Having spent a few years in the Matingale Arena, I can definitely appreciate how fast shit gets deep.

It is in these that working inside of set parameters with multiple sets of logic to control when and how trades get taken and of course when they can be exited that I've been making strides.

Again, I am not seeking market perfection as I don't believe it exists.
But somewhere inside of imperfection in a flawed market where the br0ker is the favored, I believe I can effectively help change the odds.

Knowing when to hold, when to fold is part of the key and a part of this is knowing when to just sit on the sidelines.

As much as I do enjoy the banter, I must encourage you to either view first hand how the logic works, or confine your comments to relevant threads.
Until you see how this works, your words thoughts just aren't there.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #1,100
  • May 30, 2016 4:47pm May 30, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting Magix
Where a little weakness kicks in, a lot of logic will attempt to free the account of burden. In doing this, effectively nedge trades to help sustain a reasonable draw on margin.

Where a lot of weakness kicks in, a logic will attempt to minimize the damages by exiting at a reduced loss leaving the current trend trades intact.
As shown below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: double.png Size: 158 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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