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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #431,521
  • May 28, 2016 12:29pm May 28, 2016 12:29pm
have both buy and sell positions in place heading into the following week.


scenerio 1: GU short takes profit first. = use profits to minimize long position. - i still expect it to take profit as bremain draws nearer.

scenerio 2: GU long takes profit first. = continue to hold GU short till NFP.
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  • #431,522
  • Edited 2:01am May 30, 2016 1:47am | Edited 2:01am
With equities pushing higher it's a risk on environment and can expect cable to go higher, 4hr candles printing higher and supported by the 50sma at 4593...although oil is of it's highs and as I'm writing this the 4hr starting to turn negative but can easily push back up. Daily capped at 4630 so far with 5ema at 4642 and daily PP at 4634.
If Daily candle drops below 4600 it's starting to get into negative territory....as always due diligence required

Interestingly the push higher before this one to 4735 was from 4403 to 4663 and then retraced 222 pips, if that happens again were looking in the region of 4516....just a thought!

Just saw it's spring bank holiday in the UK, could change everything......them lazy bankers...
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  • #431,523
  • May 30, 2016 3:09am May 30, 2016 3:09am
the 5min, 15 mim, 30 min and 1hr are all negative atm.....
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  • #431,524
  • May 30, 2016 3:15am May 30, 2016 3:15am
so far today is a range playing, hopefully tomorrow we will see some bullish action.
  • #431,525
  • May 30, 2016 3:17am May 30, 2016 3:17am
Quoting sunny1304
so far today is a range playing, hopefully tomorrow we will see some bullish action.
with UK holiday there seems to be low volumes atm
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  • #431,526
  • May 30, 2016 3:31am May 30, 2016 3:31am
ok i'm long at 4611, see how it goes, just a small trade

My thinking is above 4610 could go back to 4630...
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  • #431,527
  • May 30, 2016 3:51am May 30, 2016 3:51am
Quoting HaLBot
ok i'm long at 4611, see how it goes, just a small trade My thinking is above 4610 could go back to 4630...
i think you should not be in the market now the sell pressure is on
  • #431,528
  • May 30, 2016 3:52am May 30, 2016 3:52am
Quoting adetola99
{quote} i think you should not be in the market now the sell pressure is on
yeah I agree, only small trade, if drops below 4600 will go short....
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  • #431,529
  • May 30, 2016 4:01am May 30, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Fader123
Good couple of days 160 pips in two days- just on position trading alone and not one loss this week Have a good weekend guys
M8 I need your skill level, great trading...
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  • #431,530
  • May 30, 2016 4:08am May 30, 2016 4:08am
Quoting Bicarus
have both buy and sell positions in place heading into the following week. scenerio 1: GU short takes profit first. = use profits to minimize long position. - i still expect it to take profit as bremain draws nearer. scenerio 2: GU long takes profit first. = continue to hold GU short till NFP. {image}
short closed. long looking for for retest of friday's open
  • #431,531
  • May 30, 2016 4:28am May 30, 2016 4:28am
FX Street News

GBP/USD breaches 1.4600 support, testing hourly 200-SMA

A renewed bout of selling interest gripped the pound over the last hour, knocking-off GBP/USD below 1.46 handle, despite low volumes and limited volatility.

Full Report below.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd...a-201605300922
  • #431,532
  • May 30, 2016 4:32am May 30, 2016 4:32am
Quoting arasheed
FX Street News GBP/USD breaches 1.4600 support, testing hourly 200-SMA A renewed bout of selling interest gripped the pound over the last hour, knocking-off GBP/USD below 1.46 handle, despite low volumes and limited volatility. Full Report below. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd...a-201605300922

mmmmmm I thinks it'll go back above 1.4600, eur/gbp is of it's highs now so cable could recover....unless it's a temporary pullback on eur/gbp
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  • #431,533
  • May 30, 2016 4:41am May 30, 2016 4:41am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} mmmmmm I thinks it'll go back above 1.4600, eur/gbp is of it's highs now so cable could recover....unless it's a temporary pullback on eur/gbp
I think you are right, due to bank holiday ? or so there is thin volume.
  • #431,534
  • May 30, 2016 4:48am May 30, 2016 4:48am
Quoting arasheed
{quote} I think you are right, due to bank holiday ? or so there is thin volume.
bank holidays simply mean that banks are not transecting client's orders. but definitely they are prop trading
  • #431,535
  • May 30, 2016 4:48am May 30, 2016 4:48am
Quoting arasheed
{quote} I think you are right, due to bank holiday ? or so there is thin volume.
I could be wrong, but I think volumes are down by 40%....someone with much more knowledge on volumes could jump in and let us know?
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  • #431,536
  • May 30, 2016 5:15am May 30, 2016 5:15am
Thought I would break down the picture of where we are overall;

Interest rates/economic conditions;

US

Interest rate will probably rise in the coming months- Yellen- Friday (est Jul or Sept)

Economic figures doing well

US news - Bullard speaks later on today (hawk)

UK

Interest rate - next move will probably be up if UK remains in EU- Carney (when??)

Economic figures suffering (due to Brexit concerns)

UK news - challenge to David Cameron may happen after Brexit (negative)

Daily Price Action

Market has been down the last two days - and is off today although has retraced a bit

Would expect it to come off in afternoon with a hawkish speech off Bullard

However, tomorrow there is some UK CB Consumer Confidence figs out tomorrow, but I think on balance its a sell- I feel that the estimate is a just a bit high. But I will be keeping on eye on this.

We have got ADP and NFP due this week.

This may change things and I need to look into market expectations on this a bit more
  • #431,537
  • May 30, 2016 5:56am May 30, 2016 5:56am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} I could be wrong, but I think volumes are down by 40%....someone with much more knowledge on volumes could jump in and let us know?
i think we are going into the buy zone now
  • #431,538
  • May 30, 2016 5:58am May 30, 2016 5:58am
Quoting adetola99
{quote} i think we are going into the buy zone now
4615 for buy is ok with tight stop loss
  • #431,539
  • May 30, 2016 6:06am May 30, 2016 6:06am
Quoting adetola99
{quote} 4615 for buy is ok with tight stop loss
I like the sound of that....LOL

I think it needs to get above 4610...
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  • #431,540
  • Edited 6:22am May 30, 2016 6:08am | Edited 6:22am
Theres the 'Top Gear' Burma special on tv just now....3 knobs trying to recreate the bridge over the river Kwai....it's a fucking scream.....

But instead of the River Kwai they build their bridge over the River Kok....

I really miss those guys but look forward to their new show.
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