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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,701
  • May 27, 2016 5:34am May 27, 2016 5:34am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What I was suggesting was it seems like a sell the rumor buy the fact to me. If EU sells into brexit without any pull backs I personally expect another 300-500 pip immediate rally (as we saw twice last year) I would wait the NO Brexit. Speaking with some friends in Brussels and some English, they believe that the result is going to be a NO. Like Scotland's referendum. The main mass media around the world and all the economist, Brand's chiefs, has started to develop the headlines against the Brexit to frightened the
...
Totally agree.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,702
  • May 27, 2016 6:23am May 27, 2016 6:23am
Quoting sisse
"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." Winston Churchill ... sisse
very well put- and from ol' Winston himself!

Call me a purist If a country's populace wants to screw themselves over economically it's their right to do so. Perhaps we'd be in a much different world today had that been the plan from the very start (instead of a select few pulling the strings around the world)
  • #140,703
  • May 27, 2016 6:26am May 27, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What I was suggesting was it seems like a sell the rumor buy the fact to me. If EU sells into brexit without any pull backs I personally expect another 300-500 pip immediate rally (as we saw twice last year) I would wait the NO Brexit. Speaking with some friends in Brussels and some English, they believe that the result is going to be a NO. Like Scotland's referendum. The main mass media around the world and all the economist, Brand's chiefs, has started to develop the headlines against the Brexit to frightened the
...
Agreed. The vote doesnt matter- the bastards wont let the house of cards crumble. I'd imagine they've plenty of tools at their disposal to make it a no vote regardless of what the majority want.

All my conspiracy opinions of course But as said....I really want to see it happen....if nothing else to give me some faith in the world that democracy still has a place
  • #140,704
  • Edited 7:35am May 27, 2016 6:37am | Edited 7:35am
A quick recap before the key W/M combo and with upcoming reports coming. We got 2 iterations running in the Euro and one Question open. In the post below before the upcoming news I will open the last question for this leg ....

Quoting sisse
. ++++ Quick Call 7 (update 3) ++++ Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.113x

++++ Quick Call 7 (update 4) ++++

Did I miss a trend?


Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.118x (elapsed time 5 days 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP1 => 1.149x | STP => 1.123x | max r:r -=> 4:1

Earleone

hoom

TuTang


No touch (till W close) | 1.139x or 1.119x | max r:r -=> 4:1

suntan

gazpacho

Fadhl

PAStalker

Vorex

workingforex

eborn


-> LMT SELL 1.129x -> TP1 => 1.123x [check] | TP2 => 1.109x | STP => 1.135x | max r:r -=> 4:1 / 4:0

clayjay

chester123

chronical

IMARICH1

mayafx

goosebone

sanvulture

CommercialB

Oshomac [out 1.123x]


Quoting sisse
+++++ --> Question 8: How would you trade the next live short term swing for the GDP/M close in play?..

++++ Quick Call 8 (update 1) ++++

To Scale in or not to Scale in ...thats the question? ...


Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing

Current Euro price @ 1.118x (elapsed time 0 days 12 hours)


-> LMT BUY 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.140x | STP => 1.115x | max r:r -=> 4:1

Pixie666

goosebone

workingforex

NMZee


-> No touch (till M close) | 1.130x or 1.110x | max r:r -=> 3:1

chester123

hoom

Vorex

eborn

Grinsakh


-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1

IMARICH1

mayafx

k.k

roobii

ExForX

chronical


Quoting sisse
... +++ Simple exercise to evaluate if your assumptions about direction are going into the right track +++ All welcome to jump in ...

+++ Simple exercise to evaluate if your assumptions about direction are going into the right track +++

Question:

If you mid term is sell/neutral/buy: Where do you thing the current monthly close should/could be (the exact area/price is irrelevant):


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly close.png Size: 33 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,705
  • May 27, 2016 6:55am May 27, 2016 6:55am

+++ Simple exercise to start exploring the basic of Fundamentals +++

How basic Expectations Work

All welcome to jump in ....

Question:

What do you think is the expectations for the upcoming GDP news and how do you think the flow in the Euro should work out:
1. Better than expected
2. Worst than expected
3. Nothing new
4. I don't care. Expectations, news and FA mumbojumbo are just for suckers....

Options for the Flow

a. Direct impact -> Good/bad news = Stronger/weaker Dollar = Euro down/up
b. Indirect impact -> Buy the rumour sell the fact. Good news = Sell the news = Euro up / or the opposite
​c. No clue/I think is irrelevant.

Choose a combination (eg. 1b, 2c, etc etc). Levels are irrelevant ....We'll see if we can wrap up in a good discussion about FA and execrations/

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,706
  • May 27, 2016 6:57am May 27, 2016 6:57am
Quoting sisse
A quick recap before the key W/M combo and with upcoming reports coming. We got 2 iterations running in the Euro and one Question open. In the post below before the upcoming news I will open the last question for this leg .... {quote} ++++ Quick Call 7 (update 4) ++++ Did I miss a trend? Small exercise to get in synch with the market in a short swing Current Euro price @ 1.118x (elapsed time 5 days 12 hours) -> LMT BUY 1.129x -> TP1 => 1.135x | TP1 => 1.149x | STP => 1.123x | max r:r -=> 4:1 Earleone...
if we close below previous candle would confirm my sell view
regards
  • #140,707
  • May 27, 2016 7:02am May 27, 2016 7:02am
Quoting sisse
+++ Simple exercise to start exploring the basic of Fundamentals +++ How basic Expectations Work All welcome to jump in .... Question: What do you think is the expectations for the upcoming GDP news and how do you think the flow in the Euro should work out: 1. Better than expected 2. Worst than expected 3. Nothing new 4. I don't care. Expectations, news and FA mumbojumbo are just for suckers.... Options for the Flow a. Direct impact -> Good/bad news = Stronger/weaker Dollar = Euro down/up b. Indirect impact -> Buy the rumour sell the fact. Good...
2. worst than expected but better than previous
c. no clue
regards
  • #140,708
  • May 27, 2016 7:04am May 27, 2016 7:04am
my combo is 3b
btw sisse I'm not written in call 8 with my neutral outlook, just for record.
  • #140,709
  • Edited 7:20am May 27, 2016 7:08am | Edited 7:20am
3b + less than hawkish/no comment yellen = eurusd up
  • #140,710
  • May 27, 2016 7:26am May 27, 2016 7:26am
Eyes on US and NY. Not expecting much from GDP. Inline or a notch better with and ear on Yellen FED gossip/slip mouth as she did last time back in the summer but more importantly key monthly flows in play.

Inline or slightly better is just basic continuation until NY clear the opening range with or without new comments from the FED. After that is just pure Technical trading until next week.

In simple words, DIRECT trading expectations with clearing all across the board in case of a major flop/dovish FED, any other outcome is just same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,711
  • May 27, 2016 7:27am May 27, 2016 7:27am
2b
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #140,712
  • May 27, 2016 7:32am May 27, 2016 7:32am
Inline / nothing new ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,713
  • May 27, 2016 7:35am May 27, 2016 7:35am
Late to the table today......

Here is what my response would have been and my bias has been for past 2 weeks....

1. . Better than expected a. Direct impact -> Good news = Stronger Dollar = Euro down
  • #140,714
  • May 27, 2016 7:59am May 27, 2016 7:59am
Quoting sisse
4. I don't care. Expectations, news and FA mumbojumbo are just for suckers....
  • #140,715
  • May 27, 2016 9:13am May 27, 2016 9:13am
...and that was pretty much it. US equities ready for last chance to break up today but markets will sit tight until FED before closing shop for a long weekend.

Time to tighten stops across the board for those riding the different trains from earlier this month. Most of the ranges have been covered already so there is no point of waiting for anything else.

All cards on the table for the M/W close with only a very slight chance of a major intraday shake if Yellen has an 'involuntary' slip of the tongue. Until then, equities will carry the board ...

For the iteration 8 we have some losers as Euro easily and as widely expected slid pass 1.115x....updates later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,716
  • May 27, 2016 9:39am May 27, 2016 9:39am
hi guys ,

always use to miss sisse's game .... what to do ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #140,717
  • May 27, 2016 11:17am May 27, 2016 11:17am
First round of key W/M closes.

--> Europe going home with a particular bullish close DAX not only holding the break 10000.xx but unlocking the yearly highs in the process. Without dovish surprises from the FED today. 10340.xx is officially confirmed as the rain maker for the Brexit/June play.

--> More importantly for next month, FTSE barely managed to hold but is holding 6260.xx also unlocking 6700.xx for UK IN. Markets given clear signals of where the money is for the Referendum. A Brexit against expectation will now have devastating short term effects in European equities as the knee jerk reaction will caught real money on the wrong side, unlocking a -20% or more selloff for the summer in case of exit ....

On the current legs not much to do. Day is not over yet via the US but without surprises from the FED, no profit taking for the close and with a long weekend Holiday ahead ....is the obvious ...same levels, same trades, same all ...

Changes in short term outlooks only not confirmed cause YELLEN marginal chance of something happening for the w close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,718
  • May 27, 2016 11:33am May 27, 2016 11:33am
For those in OIL that is sitting in imminent break up and since a few days ago. Watch-out a last minute rally on the M to close above the handle ($50) ... $49.5x is key level to track for the close as it can mark $26.xx as the low of the year and a strong mid term floor...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,719
  • May 27, 2016 11:54am May 27, 2016 11:54am
"Credit anticipates, equity confirms." There's no better canary in the coal mine for equities than high yield credit. I really hope that sisse is right - that we see a correction off a June Fed rate hike, but there's no guarantee of that....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/since-...143852545.html

"Stocks tend to follow credit, and high-yield is telling us that it's an important time to be owning equities," the often bullish Lee said Thursday, adding in a Friday note that the catch-up trade should drive the S&P 500 "to reach 2300-plus by year-end."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,720
  • May 27, 2016 12:28pm May 27, 2016 12:28pm
Watch-out S&P 2100.xx going for the home run ...Hard and large stops staggered at the highs in ES...that could trigger a domino if taken ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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