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The Really Useless Thread

  • #140,581
  • May 20, 2016 8:33am May 20, 2016 8:33am
Thanks CommericalB! We shall see if this was the right call...

I am glad to see sisse wanting to discuss trade management as this is another area I struggle in. I get out to soon or too late.....

Can someone help me understand how there is 0 risk if your stop is at .1350 and you took a position at .129X? That's a 60 pip loss unless sisse means to take 60 pips of 1:1 profit at our first TARGET (.1230) to cover the 60 pips if it would hit the stop.

"(for example in this iteration should stay at 1.135x because 1.129x - 1.123x = 60 ticks => 1.129x + 60 = 1.135x should be the first trailling as it provides 0 risk in the position as a whole)."-sisse
  • #140,582
  • Edited 10:53am May 20, 2016 8:37am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting IMARICH1
Thanks CommericalB! We shall see if this was the right call... I am glad to see sisse wanting to discuss trade management as this is another area I struggle in. I get out to soon or too late..... Can someone help me understand how there is 0 risk if your stop is at .1350 and you took a position at .129X? That's a 60 pip loss unless sisse means to take 60 pips of 1:1 profit at our first TARGET (.1230) to cover the 60 pips if it would hit the stop. "(for example in this iteration should stay at 1.135x because 1.129x - 1.123x = 60 ticks => 1.129x +...
Yeah, that's how I understood it ..60 taken off partial @ 1.1230 meaning we can have stop @ 1.1350 for breakeven
...that's under his normal trade management style but for this test iteration am still not sure where he's having the stop, @ entry 1.1290 or 1.1350 ..no matter

Edited: decimal errors
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #140,583
  • May 20, 2016 8:47am May 20, 2016 8:47am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} l not sure where he's having the stop, @ entry 1.290 or 1.350 ..no matter
It should be at .1350 if that's how he figures a 0 RISK stop (taking 60 pip of profit from .129X to .123X) as this would make more sense. And, .1350 is a great area to have a stop as PRICE was unable to penetrate .134X prior to FED MINUTES so there is even a less of a chance of it breaking thru now with the HAWKISH Minutes and without any solid news to drive it until late next week. Path of Least Resistance is SELL.

But, congrats to Oshomac for taking some profit and making the right trade from .129X to .123X!
  • #140,584
  • May 20, 2016 9:11am May 20, 2016 9:11am
Last time I bailed early it was not the right call. Staying in. This is against my TA which shows possible strong support 1167/42. I learn more from the exercises when they don't go the way I expect so don't take me out please.
  • #140,585
  • May 20, 2016 9:32am May 20, 2016 9:32am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} It should be at .1350 if that's how he figures a 0 RISK stop (taking 60 pip of profit from .129X to .123X) as this would make more sense. And, .1350 is a great area to have a stop as PRICE was unable to penetrate .134X prior to FED MINUTES so there is even a less of a chance of it breaking thru now with the HAWKISH Minutes and without any solid news to drive it until late next week. Path of Least Resistance is SELL. But, congrats to Oshomac for taking some profit and making the right trade from .129X to .123X!
I agree 100% ....Btw what has me unsure where sisse is having the stop for this example was his reply to mayafx ...

Quoting mayafx
{quote} Just for my understanding trailing the stop to entry....? regards

I should have thought/explained in more detail how to work out the trailing part ...yes for this iteration but that is a good topic for the next iterations: 'trading management'... sisse
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #140,586
  • May 20, 2016 10:04am May 20, 2016 10:04am
Hello sisse, I don't know if u are trading Egbp, nice setup for the month.With 7649 holding now as a support ,are we seeing a rally back to 79** before hitting the sell button
Yours Giant
  • #140,587
  • May 20, 2016 11:24am May 20, 2016 11:24am
Quoting sisse
Eyes on S&P 2045.xx [check] for NY to unlock a quick rally to the highs of the week and fight 2059.xx [check] for the close as markets shake out the knee jerk reaction from....
S&P crashing at 2059.xx as expected for the European close. V. decent session for those on board but we are running out of time for the week to get anything else.... Failure to crack it on the top of next hour and week is pretty much over .... All eyes on Dollar 94.4x and US equities 2059.xx for the W close ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,588
  • May 20, 2016 1:01pm May 20, 2016 1:01pm
Important update for the Energies close. OIL is set to hold the $48 handle leaving a test above $50.xx naked for this month but more importantly unlocking $55.2x for the spring.

For those tracking CAD for a swing, watch-out CAD crashing at the 1.32xx handle in the upcoming sessions to mark the High of this Q and year and more importantly for a super tradable sharp mid and long term swing to 1.22xx...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,589
  • May 20, 2016 2:09pm May 20, 2016 2:09pm
Quoting IMARICH1
....." you trade the center in the direction" NY CLOSED above 94.44! Thanks {image}
Are you still unclear with the chart in this conversation? and why we stop 1.117x? I hope not ...

Quoting CommercialB
{quote} I agree 100% ....Btw what has me unsure where sisse is having the stop for this example was his reply to mayafx ... Quoting mayafx {quote} Just for my understanding trailing the stop to entry....? regards I should have thought/explained in more detail how to work out the trailing part ...yes for this iteration but that is a good topic for the next iterations: 'trading management'... sisse
Yeap I meant that i didn't define exactly before how the trailing would work ...so for this time, we'll trail it to entry 1.129x for the sake of the iteration. If it gets touch is not really important as the goal of the iteration wasn't about trade management but about spotting trends at the right time ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,590
  • Edited 2:52pm May 20, 2016 2:37pm | Edited 2:52pm
"Are you still unclear with the chart in this conversation? and why we stop 1.117x? I hope not ..."-sisse


For the sake of learning, I will answer and be scolded due to ignorance.......

  1. "In an outlook sell (or buy) whatever the chart, the break of the last extreme is the sharp momentum leg."-sisse

PRICE probably stopped at .1180 as this the MOMENTUM EXTREME AREA and Market is not ready to break it just yet and heavily defended?

Or, is it the NEW FLIP? These are my best answers.....

I am sure that is not a FLIP but it is something to me. PRICE continues to go to it and then Momentum candle breaks to the other direction. If PRICE would close above .1345 then I would say its more continuation to the EXHAUSTION POINT TO LOCK OR TRAP BULLS at some point.

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  • #140,591
  • Edited 3:25pm May 20, 2016 2:56pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting IMARICH1
" I am sure that is not a FLIP but it is something to me. PRICE continues to go to it and then Momentum candle breaks to the other direction. If PRICE would close above .1345 then I would say its more continuation to the EXHAUSTION POINT TO LOCK OR TRAP BULLS at some point. {image}
I know it's not the TA thread but thought I'd mention that I (and some others I think) look at that level as important to many larger tf moves maybe the biggest one being the 1/4 level of this move attached. So 1/2way to 1.22x norm.
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  • #140,592
  • May 20, 2016 2:57pm May 20, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting IMARICH1
"probably stopped at .1180 as this the MOMENTUM EXTREME AREA and Market is not ready to break it just yet and heavily defended? Its my best answer..... {image}
I think it needs next gdp/nfp prints to decide to break out or not
  • #140,593
  • May 20, 2016 3:12pm May 20, 2016 3:12pm
goosebone,

Thanks for sharing. I knew .1345 was "something".

I know others like gator see that 1.24...I know the MID and MOFU's are real and hold weight. I won't say it won't happen; but, in this climate and FA with economy better in US than EU and GBP with their weakened economy and monetary policy in MID and LONG TERM, I don't see it. I do respect the viewpoint.

EDIT: I saw sisse here and then left......he probably saw my post and is going to get some wine before my lashing.....
  • #140,594
  • May 20, 2016 3:12pm May 20, 2016 3:12pm
Oops. Thankyou edyraper. That one is demo. but still..
  • #140,595
  • May 20, 2016 3:21pm May 20, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
goosebone, Thanks for sharing. I knew .1345 was "something". I know others like gator see that 1.24...I know the MID and MOFU's are real and hold weight. I won't say it won't happen; but, in this climate and FA with economy better in US than EU and GBP with their weakened economy and monetary policy in MID and LONG TERM, I don't see it. I do respect the viewpoint.
  • #140,596
  • May 20, 2016 3:21pm May 20, 2016 3:21pm
Quoting IMARICH1
... Or, is it the NEW FLIP? These are my best answers..... I am sure that is not a FLIP but it is something to me. PRICE continues to go to it and then Momentum candle breaks to the other direction. If PRICE would close above .1345 then I would say its more continuation to the EXHAUSTION POINT TO LOCK OR TRAP BULLS at some point. {image}
Don't complicate things TA wise. Keep it simple. No need to call traps where are none...meaning don't build so many assumptions and worst built on TA bars alone. I got the feeling you are edging too close to the market again in you perspective ...

Look this is the old chart (before the las update):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You don't need to keep changing your maps and views every single bar. Two tips:

1. If the range you are mapping hasn't change neither TA or FA wise, DON't bother trying to outguess a new one or two for the 'just in case' ...

2. You need to keep in mind direction for your map first and you are forgetting about that.

=>What is the current direction of the market (mid term)???
=> and then on the current short term swing we already adjusted the top of the range after the break and also we adjusted the flip...do we need to adjust the bottom of the map now or not yet?

Quoting goosebone
{quote} I know it's not the TA thread but thought I'd mention that I (and some others I think) look at that level as important to many larger tf moves maybe the biggest one being the 1/4 level of this move attached. So 1/2way to 1.22x norm.
Master basic price analysis before you use fibs/dow/quarters/murrays/mofus/or whatever 'magic lines' (of any kind) you have ....you will have more consistent results ....my 2 cents ....

Quoting Replicant
{quote} I think it needs next gdp/nfp prints to decide to break out or not
hmm ...not really sure about that ...Expectations are on a slightly flop GDP and slightly softer (but better) NFP ...table will be settle already by German numbers ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,597
  • May 20, 2016 3:31pm May 20, 2016 3:31pm
sisse,

I don't even know if I am to close to the market or not as there so many things to analyze and I use the wrong tools for observations more times than not......the minute I think I have something, I am so far off....

"What is the current direction of the market (mid term) "

SHORT

"and then on the current short term swing we already adjusted the top of the range after the break and also we adjusted the flip...do we need to adjust the bottom of the map now?"

We are in a SWING from .1200 to .161X so the range has not changed and PRICE stopped at the bottom of an EXTREME or bottom of range.
No, we don't need to adjust the Bottom MAP now as we don't know the range yet but we do know the DIRECTION.
  • #140,598
  • May 20, 2016 3:44pm May 20, 2016 3:44pm
Not sure how to master basic price analysis. But I want to. Guess that's why I'm hanging round here. Any tips on where to go/what to read? I'm not so young but still got a brain like a sponge.
  • #140,599
  • Edited 4:12pm May 20, 2016 3:59pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... "What is the current direction of the market (mid term) " SHORT "and then on the current short term swing we already adjusted the top of the range after the break and also we adjusted the flip...do we need to adjust the bottom of the map now?" We are in a SWING from .1200 to .161X so the range has not changed and PRICE stopped at the bottom of an EXTREME or bottom of range. No, we don't need to adjust the Bottom MAP now as we don't know the range yet but we do know the DIRECTION.
I agree on the second part. There is no need to adjust the bottom map yet. No reason to do it .

On the first part. Well your outlook is short mine is neutral since a couple of months now...

Quoting sisse
--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from August 2015 from Strong sell to Neutral
It doesn't matter even better. Let me give you an extra and very simple but powerful exercise (anybody can jump in) again to try to see markets and especially TA from a different perspective:

Forget about everything else NO FA, TA no nothing. This is the current Monthly candle:

+++ Simple exercise to evaluate if your assumptions about direction are going into the right track +++

All welcome to jump in ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly close.png Size: 33 KB


Question:
If you mid term is sell/neutral/buy: Where do you thing the current monthly close should/could be (the exact area/price is irrelevant):

a. Around the green area (an Engulfing candle from top to bottom) -> A close below the last candle low
b. Around the orange area (an Outside candle with both top and bottom rejected) -> A close in the body around the last candle middle
c. Around the red area (a Rejection candle of lows) -> A close above the last candle high
​d. No clue/I think is irrelevant.

*The name of the candles is irrelevant ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,600
  • May 20, 2016 4:28pm May 20, 2016 4:28pm
orange area
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