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  • #140,681
  • May 26, 2016 12:18pm May 26, 2016 12:18pm
-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1
  • #140,682
  • May 26, 2016 2:04pm May 26, 2016 2:04pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, You may think I am to close to my charts (maybe I am); but, your calls were prior to OPENING of NY session and I wanted to see how NY was going to respond. I would have preferred to wait until after the first 30 minutes to decide. My choice was based on OUTLOOK and expectations. Since we are in SELL OUTLOOK Short term, I went with the path of least resistance though I was concerned of a pullback of this 600 pip move. Just some thoughts.....
hmm .. .well i wasn't refereeing to you but as you mentioned... the direction of a short term swing like this shouldn't be dependant upon a session open ..

That shows that you were tracking intraday for the direction of the call... my 2 cents its ok to zoom in (not too close!!!) for a specific price area for placing the actual trade in a session opening but try to avoid at all cost making decisions about direction of a short term swing base on intraday movements without absolutely nothing fundamental or else in play as you will be edging and betting against the wrong crowd....

Quoting suntan
-> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1
Sorry too late...try next time and for the look of it ...could be tomorrow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,683
  • Edited 2:29pm May 26, 2016 2:12pm | Edited 2:29pm
Thanks and I know you were NOT directly referring to me; but, I do get to close alot of times to my charts and was wondering if I was again.

I was watching for .1215/18 not to be taken as its a S and R on Daily Chart. I believe .124X is even stronger.

We are at the bottom of range on a MONTHLY candle. Still waiting to see if anything is to be learned from the MONTHLY candle.
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  • #140,684
  • May 26, 2016 2:34pm May 26, 2016 2:34pm
Good ...in the second chart you finally identified the area in play for the W/M roll.... anything else is minions jumping in an out thinking that is the usual flows ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,685
  • May 26, 2016 2:46pm May 26, 2016 2:46pm
Quoting Pharm0r
FOMC June 15th Brexit vote June 23rd Fed has made it very clear they are watching brexit closely and that it could (aka would) have an effect on whether or not they increase rates. I suspect there'll be no hike in June. {quote} My guess: July yes. June no.
June or July, either way - will it rock the markets? With the US economy heating up, oil rallying, maybe some 25 bps hikes will be nbd? There's still no better place to go for a yield seeking pig than US equities, and that'll be true until the ffr gets up to >3%, which could be another year plus from now.

Now, if a Brexit win surprises the market, that could be a chance for a gloomy June and beyond...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,686
  • May 26, 2016 3:11pm May 26, 2016 3:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}June or July, either way - will it rock the markets? With the US economy heating up, oil rallying, maybe some 25 bps hikes will be nbd? There's still no better place to go for a yield seeking pig than US equities, and that'll be true until the ffr gets up to >3%, which could be another year plus from now. Now, if a Brexit win surprises the market, that could be a chance for a gloomy June and beyond...
Since my yearly outlook last December I am eyeballing a very strong end of the year (Q4) in Europe with the sluggish recovery/negative rates, and unlimited QE finally starting to kick in the real economy. I wouldn't dismiss Europe as main driver in Equities from the Winter onwards...

The only spoiler could be Brexit as the huge uncertainty and chaos will leave Europe knock out for a few years (much beyond the short term knee jerk reaction) in a royal mess until they untangle all knots in the Union.

All other scenarios are aligning for US Equities calm and orderly correction on rates (1 or 2 hikes in play) while we wait for the result of election. The odds of marking/confirming the high of this year in the current leg are over 90% in my books ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,687
  • May 26, 2016 4:36pm May 26, 2016 4:36pm
Quoting sisse
All other scenarios are aligning for US Equities calm and orderly correction on rates (1 or 2 hikes in play) while we wait for the result of election. The odds of marking/confirming the high of this year in the current leg are over 90% in my books ... sisse
idk, sensei. This is the obvious scenario, and is what the better part of my risk capital is set up for: a volatility pop in June/July as the markets agonize about rate hikes, Brexits, US elections, etc. But what I saw in the last couple weeks is markets seemingly unmoved by hawkish words from Dudley and other Fed mouthpieces, and now easily rallying with oil. So, perhaps the prospect of some modicum of "certainty" from the Fed is the personal lube that Mr. Market has been looking for? The other "wild card" is perhaps in OPEC's hand.....maybe just a deuce, we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,688
  • May 26, 2016 6:07pm May 26, 2016 6:07pm
so, what are you saying, TF? Is Hawk the new Dove? I dunno, TF, could be....maybe the markets will tank if they don't hike......?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fiv...of2&yptr=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,689
  • May 26, 2016 6:23pm May 26, 2016 6:23pm
EU

Monday Daily bar close above the Monthly Zone
Tuesday and Wednesday below The Q4 Zone
Thursday above The Q4 Zone
  • #140,690
  • May 26, 2016 7:12pm May 26, 2016 7:12pm
Quoting sisse
Euro back to 1.120x. Perfect timing for the GDP/M roll last ITERATION of the month .... Choose your poison ASAP. All the previous traders from the still open last Iteration are STRONGLY encourage to play .... -> LMT BUY 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.140x | STP => 1.115x | max r:r -=> 4:1 -> No touch (till M close) | 1.130x or 1.110x | max r:r -=> 3:1 -> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1 Standing tables update from last round, comments, questions for later ... sisse
Sorry was busy elsewhere & missed the screen time today and also the newest iteration. Coincidentally euro just touching 1.12 again from below (GMT +1), but I don't expect to be included in this game just wanted to say for the record I'd have again gone with the short -> LMT SELL 1.120x -> TP1 => 1.100x 1.095x | STP => 1.125x | max r:r -=> 5:1.

Gd luck to participants
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #140,691
  • May 26, 2016 7:15pm May 26, 2016 7:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}June or July, either way - will it rock the markets? With the US economy heating up, oil rallying, maybe some 25 bps hikes will be nbd? There's still no better place to go for a yield seeking pig than US equities, and that'll be true until the ffr gets up to >3%, which could be another year plus from now. Now, if a Brexit win surprises the market, that could be a chance for a gloomy June and beyond...
What I was suggesting was it seems like a sell the rumor buy the fact to me. If EU sells into brexit without any pull backs I personally expect another 300-500 pip immediate rally (as we saw twice last year) which can be bought then faded... Mofu lines up for this scenario, and the reactions thus far agree with mofu- despite the selling pressure continuance.

If brexit passes through...I'd nix my 1.2xxx dreams and aim directly for 0.8xxx...god knows the talking heads like Cameron have stated such a situation would be dooms day for the pound, and the eur as collateral.

You stated it's all too obvious- I agree, and I intend to play it that way. Especially because everything has been done for mofu techs to hit 1.2xxx since last year...which was stated back when EU was trading below 1.09xx

I also agree with sisse in my simplistic "show the the facts on the charts" views (that he dislikes)....which is EU is lining up for a similar rally that US equities had after 2008. Stock buy backs galore, free money...etc. I don't have to know the intricacies of the economy to know the bastards will do it....because they are the same bastards that did it the past 7 years in US

Would be easy if only brexit, grexit, isis, etc would give the eastern part of the world a damn break. Or perhaps I should say if the US would stop pulling the strings in the eastern part of the world long enough...

--------

Money be damned- I WANT the brexit to happen. I like fireworks.....and I believe a country should do what the people want whether its better for them economically or not and I REALLY want to see what happens if the people vote yes and the govt calls the bluff
  • #140,692
  • May 27, 2016 2:24am May 27, 2016 2:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Since my yearly outlook last December I am eyeballing a very strong end of the year (Q4) in Europe with the sluggish recovery/negative rates, and unlimited QE finally starting to kick in the real economy. I wouldn't dismiss Europe as main driver in Equities from the Winter onwards... The only spoiler could be Brexit as the huge uncertainty and chaos will leave Europe knock out for a few years (much beyond the short term knee jerk reaction) in a royal mess until they untangle all knots in the Union. All other scenarios are aligning for US...
nicely put.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,693
  • May 27, 2016 2:27am May 27, 2016 2:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}idk, sensei. This is the obvious scenario, and is what the better part of my risk capital is set up for: a volatility pop in June/July as the markets agonize about rate hikes, Brexits, US elections, etc. But what I saw in the last couple weeks is markets seemingly unmoved by hawkish words from Dudley and other Fed mouthpieces, and now easily rallying with oil. So, perhaps the prospect of some modicum of "certainty" from the Fed is the personal lube that Mr. Market has been looking for? The other "wild card" is perhaps in OPEC's hand.....maybe...
no one likes surprises and most definitely the Americans do not like surprises during an election year that would move the public one way or another. Imagine even a minor crash in the US market during the summer and Trump using it to seal the victory.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,694
  • May 27, 2016 3:16am May 27, 2016 3:16am
Quoting manosk
no one likes surprises and most definitely the Americans do not like surprises during an election year that would move the public one way or another. Imagine even a minor crash in the US market during the summer and Trump using it to seal the victory.
What, you not a Don Trump fan? You're fired! (JK)....US equities rallied for Xmas following the Dec FOMC, when they raised the ffr a tiny 25bps, then dropped 275 in the first month of the year. There hasn't been a bull seen since early Feb, tho. Stocks have rallied with oil. How much higher do you think oil will go? Americans don't like surprises? omg the Fed has been teasing the markets with rates normalization for years. Years and years. At this point, market will be surprised if the Fed does not keep on the hawk track. In fact, I will bet the SnP will drop 25+ tomorrow if JY expresses the typical dovish trepidations.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,695
  • May 27, 2016 3:37am May 27, 2016 3:37am
Important GDP numbers with key W/M combo in play for today. Expecting Europe to just move with the flow on inertia after the opening range until NY settle the deal across the board. Not much to see until then....

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} -------- Money be damned- I WANT the brexit to happen. I like fireworks.....and I believe a country should do what the people want whether its better for them economically or not and I REALLY want to see what happens if the people vote yes and the govt calls the bluff..
You are smart guy so you will enjoy this quote. From one of the greatest and more respected leaders the United Kingdom have ever had:

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." Winston Churchill

je je je ...read between lines as you wish ..

For real trading wise, don't forget markets don't like extreme risk scenarios and more importantly the FIREWORKS will be A LOT stronger and tradable with UK staying in as markets are heavily sidelined and hedge against the risk event.

So if you want sharp tradable reaction is UK IN as we will have a reshuffle in risk portfolios, a rebalance in Sterling, and lockdown the extreme risk scenario. While in a sharp risk sell off via brexit I can guarantee you, you probably wont even be able to grab a few ticks in between ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,696
  • May 27, 2016 3:46am May 27, 2016 3:46am
http://www.economist.com/Brexit

flat is the new down?....will we get some volatility finally in June if the brexit polls tighten, if there be doubts about the Fed?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140,697
  • May 27, 2016 3:53am May 27, 2016 3:53am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.economist.com/Brexit flat is the new down?....will we get some volatility finally in June if the brexit polls tighten, if there be doubts about the Fed?
TA wise, European Stock markets are starting to look as screaming buy which is a big contrast with US markets that looks on the last fumes.

Double whammy (Brexit + hikes) will cause a sharp tumble in Europe, deeper than in the US by a mile or two. However, IN vote with FED getting ride of the first hike of the year will allow us to have a very very very sharp european rally by the end of the year ...

We'll see. For now we need to first clear the major risk event of the year and the FED June...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #140,698
  • May 27, 2016 4:59am May 27, 2016 4:59am
Quoting sisse
"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." Winston Churchill

Hahahahaha... Fantastic quote which holds a large element of truth.
  • #140,699
  • May 27, 2016 5:16am May 27, 2016 5:16am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}What, you not a Don Trump fan? You're fired! (JK)....US equities rallied for Xmas following the Dec FOMC, when they raised the ffr a tiny 25bps, then dropped 275 in the first month of the year. There hasn't been a bull seen since early Feb, tho. Stocks have rallied with oil. How much higher do you think oil will go? Americans don't like surprises? omg the Fed has been teasing the markets with rates normalization for years. Years and years. At this point, market will be surprised if the Fed does not keep on the hawk track. In fact, I will...
I hear you, I do not disagree. Unfortunately the Fed, despite the fact that they should have taken uncertainty out of the equation for the investors, they have added a lot of uncertainty which maybe has serves them well, I dont know. So, I am not saying they will not raise, I am just saying that they will make sure that whatever they do is better communicated to the public than it has been before because this is certainly a time to avoid surprises with the election year and all, and the bigger uncertainty to what is happening in the political field. They would like to make sure that everything has been priced well before they do anything and so far the market has not really priced a interest rate increase. The probability of an increase was 13% last month and now it is 26% so still there is a lot of room for a proper shock.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #140,700
  • May 27, 2016 5:31am May 27, 2016 5:31am
[quote=Pharm0r;8948474]{quote} What I was suggesting was it seems like a sell the rumor buy the fact to me. If EU sells into brexit without any pull backs I personally expect another 300-500 pip immediate rally (as we saw twice last year)

I would wait the NO Brexit. Speaking with some friends in Brussels and some English, they believe that the result is going to be a NO. Like Scotland's referendum. The main mass media around the world and all the economist, Brand's chiefs, has started to develop the headlines against the Brexit to frightened the average English voter.
As the polls one month ago were in favour of Brexit, NO has started to win. Politicians will do whatever they can, to avoid the Brexit. I still can remember Cameron flying to Scotland two days before the Referendum promising more autonomy to Scotland's Parlament.

It's a question of privileges. UK has got special privileges inside the EU. And they want to keep them, or maybe increase them ( like have the right to not apply Schengen or not avoid to use the Medical English Service if you come from certain countries inside EU) . So they threat EU with the Brexit, in order to keep their privileges.
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