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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #429,701
  • Apr 27, 2016 6:54am Apr 27, 2016 6:54am
Quoting asgcorp
S&D is good but it's meaningless if you don't factor in the volume of the previous move.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #429,702
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:02am Apr 27, 2016 7:02am
check out EURCHF H4 nice potential short from strong supply
  • #429,703
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:03am Apr 27, 2016 7:03am
Ive got 1.4550x longs still valid for 1.468x, don't have much else on GU - 1.4618 I posted holding as some resistance atm, 1.4626/31 may also be res before higher high on small tf...
  • #429,704
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:05am Apr 27, 2016 7:05am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} hey no harm done ))) It's just that you are not showing that part of the chart where previously this stock was sold off on high volume. S&D is good but it's meaningless if you don't factor in the volume of the previous move.
No harm done at all asgcorp. It's a perennial discussion me and some friends who trade S.U.R.E (I have to say i don't have many left who do by the time i get done with them .

Interesting you bring up volume, one of the rules in S&D trading is that volume is irrelevant as a deciding factor for identifying zones.
We just don't use it.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #429,705
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:08am Apr 27, 2016 7:08am
Quoting Don96
Ive got 1.4550x longs still valid for 1.468x, don't have much else on GU - 1.4618 I posted holding as some resistance atm, 1.4626/31 may also be res before higher high on small tf...
yes I see 146.18 as resistance, through that will easily go up 50-60 pips IMHO, but could head south for a while as we have 4hr indecision candle prior to this one
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #429,706
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:08am Apr 27, 2016 7:08am
yeah ok let's just conclude that volume is irrelevant, that's fine.
  • #429,707
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:09am Apr 27, 2016 7:09am
Quoting Akt
Interesting you bring up volume, one of the rules in S&D trading is that volume is irrelevant as a deciding factor for identifying zones.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #429,708
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:18am Apr 27, 2016 7:18am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} yes I see 146.18 as resistance, through that will easily go up 50-60 pips IMHO, but could head south for a while as we have 4hr indecision candle prior to this one
​1.468x is valid target/zone for longs above 1.4540, below and its not so strong, for me anyway. I'm flat so whatever its also small tf atm. not got much else, cba prior to FOMC
  • #429,709
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:25am Apr 27, 2016 7:25am
careful longs as there is a minor reversal from daily trendline
  • #429,710
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:26am Apr 27, 2016 7:26am
i'm out, good luck trading today/tonight
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #429,711
  • Edited 7:51am Apr 27, 2016 7:32am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting Akt
{quote} No harm done at all asgcorp. It's a perennial discussion me and some friends who trade S.U.R.E (I have to say i don't have many left who do by the time i get done with them . Interesting you bring up volume, one of the rules in S&D trading is that volume is irrelevant as a deciding factor for identifying zones. We just don't use it. best wishes
I am a SD trader myself and the method definitely works very well. Problem I have is determining the best zones. I have seen textbook zones RBD/DBR (>3/1 takeoff, strong takeoff, taking out opposing zones, in alignment with higher TF etc...) get taken out without effort then in other times, zones with lots of trading (wicky >4-6 candles in execution tf, typically zones we wouldn't even consider) holding. This yielded 40-50% hit rate at the best. Now this hit rate is pretty good to many which I would agree for the most part but I am not completely satisfied.

The biggest problem I have with SD is being excluded from joining in the trend because SD is typically counter trend trading (which I profit from) but I find these moves do not last long. The price in the trend typically moves away by the time you can define a zone within the trend. When I have tried to research how, I have been hit with sites that request ridiculous membership rates to learn this info. Unfortunately I do not have 1000 Euros to give to join forums where I can learn this. It's just not happening. This made me conclude thattrading SD zoning exclusively is half the picture and there needed to be some trigger I was missing (Unless you can point me to the right resources). So I have come across and I am learning VSA and Wyckoff's principles that I am beginning to apply in my testing. I am beginning to see approaching volume cannot be ignored as they give strong clues to trend trading. As well, I am no longer being excluded from catching the trend on pullbacks. Combining these two methods is yielding a much greater hit rate in my testing because volume is used to confirm the zones as opposed to having textbook zones which look great taken out arbitrarily.
  • #429,712
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:36am Apr 27, 2016 7:36am
Quoting asgcorp
yeah ok let's just conclude that volume is irrelevant, that's fine.
Hello ascorp

Please do not misunderstand me, I did not mean that volume is not important in general. Clearly it is a tool many traders use in their methodologies. So it has meaning for them.

I was just saying that within the S&D methodology it is not important.

I hope that helps clarify my thoughts.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #429,713
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:39am Apr 27, 2016 7:39am
Heading back to the separating rainbow/support?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 35 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #429,714
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:49am Apr 27, 2016 7:49am
I'm looking for a breakout of this bullish flag. If it breaks out bullish then I cant see strong resistance until 1.49420.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 125 KB
  • #429,715
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:50am Apr 27, 2016 7:50am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Heading back to the separating rainbow/support? {image}
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #429,716
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:52am Apr 27, 2016 7:52am
sorry for taking a short on this macd pattern

Attached Image
  • #429,717
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:53am Apr 27, 2016 7:53am
Quoting Denden2012
{quote} I am a SD trader myself and the method definitely works very well. Problem I have is determining best zones. I have seen textbook zones RBD/DBR get taken out without effort then in other times, zones with lots of trading (wicky >4-6 candles in execution tf) holding. This yielded 40-50% hit rate, in addition SD excluded me from joining in the trend because SD is typically counter trend trading as the price typically moves away by the time you can define a zone within the trend. This made me conclude that SD zoning is only half the picture....

Traditional S/R does far better imho. Using S/R on HTF, e.g. weekly, with confirmation of pa has greater probability of success.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #429,718
  • Apr 27, 2016 7:58am Apr 27, 2016 7:58am
gold and silver pushing higher pre-fomc
  • #429,719
  • Apr 27, 2016 8:04am Apr 27, 2016 8:04am
Quoting Denden2012
{quote} I am a SD trader myself and the method definitely works very well. Problem I have is determining the best zones. I have seen textbook zones RBD/DBR (>3/1 takeoff, strong takeoff, taking out opposing zones, in alignment with higher TF etc...) get taken out without effort then in other times, zones with lots of trading (wicky >4-6 candles in execution tf, typically zones we wouldn't even consider) holding. This yielded 40-50% hit rate at the best. Now this hit rate is pretty good to many which I would agree for the most part but I am not completely...
Hello Denden.

Thank you for bringing this to the table for discussion. Much appreciated.

Reading your thoughts, if I may, i think one of the issues presenting themselves as a challenge for you is understanding the relationship between trends on different time frames and how to integrate that information to reach your conclusions.

S&D is totally about trend trading. What it does in addition is allow us to also be more specific with counter trend trades.

I would be keen to help you understand the inter-relationship between trends if you are interested.....at no cost whatsoever. It would be an honor.

I have been through what you described in your post so i know how you feel. Funny thing is, I actually also studied wyckoff for a considerable length of time and still incorporate some ideas from there into my S&D decision matrix.

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #429,720
  • Apr 27, 2016 8:05am Apr 27, 2016 8:05am
Quoting PatienceFx
sorry for taking a short on this macd pattern {image}
I used to use a similar tool but finding its reliability less now since 2012
Come with me if you want to live....
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