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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #429,261
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:05pm Apr 22, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting Motiv8
If we close the week above 1.44, next week GBP will fly.
Ok. Why?
Trade. Learn. Adjust.
  • #429,262
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:18pm Apr 22, 2016 12:18pm
Because GBP don't close above 1.44 at long time, and the weekly candle is bullish but not sure If will be above 1.45, it's a strong resistance, too many sellers there. Brexit vote polls are better, remain campaign it's winning some %.
  • #429,263
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:23pm Apr 22, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting Motiv8
Because GBP don't close above 1.44 at long time, and the weekly candle is bullish but not sure If will be above 1.45, it's a strong resistance, too many sellers there. Brexit vote polls are better, remain campaign it's winning some %.
Thanks for the idea Sir.
Trade. Learn. Adjust.
  • #429,264
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:23pm Apr 22, 2016 12:23pm
USD it's strong not a easy task to close above 1.44.
  • #429,265
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:24pm Apr 22, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting MrBach
{quote} Thanks for the idea Sir.
You welcome, just an idea I can be wrong.
  • #429,266
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:27pm Apr 22, 2016 12:27pm
I've got long TP 1.4480, hope can hit on Monday.
  • #429,267
  • Apr 22, 2016 12:41pm Apr 22, 2016 12:41pm
​I think there is a head and shoulders that must be go to 1.43 first then up and now no volatility therefore I think it will be a gap down at opening next week
  • #429,268
  • Apr 22, 2016 1:03pm Apr 22, 2016 1:03pm
Up trend continues .. into next week
staying long
  • #429,269
  • Apr 22, 2016 1:24pm Apr 22, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} I think there was a good opportunity a 1/4 above SNB day low, I don't think that G/CHF will get back to those lows, ( I hope it does because ill bet my house on longs) I just don't see it, 1.30xx is as far as ill look, 1.33 is a quarter of the move back up, some supports down there... (this is all ignoring the Brexit votes, I haven't been around long enough to see anything like this so I have no idea the impact but judging on BoJo a few months back and the impact he had on the pound, its probably going to be a big move one way or...
G/CHF could have a short at 1.4180/1.422/3 for 1.30xx... the lows it reached coincided with a quarter and a valid level from previous numbers on fibs... not sure on those shorts... but it makes sense now 1.389xx taken... one to watch
  • #429,270
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:38pm Apr 22, 2016 3:38pm
GU 4458 continues to be a major challenge for bulls 100R
Could change this dramatically depending how Feds play on Weds
As you can see GU has been in a range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 40 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #429,271
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:29pm Apr 22, 2016 5:29pm
Quoting KeenPips
I'll be surprised if GU is less than bullish today. It seems it's retesting the pinbar (on daily and 4-hour charts); significantly formed in a daily S/R zone. KP
As observed.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #429,272
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:09pm Apr 22, 2016 6:09pm
Quoting adetola99
my opinion the big boys are just riding the market to make money of retail traders
good post, but we trade like the big boys and we can play them at their game
  • #429,273
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:10pm Apr 22, 2016 6:10pm
gbj a 400 pip candle ?????
  • #429,274
  • Apr 22, 2016 6:17pm Apr 22, 2016 6:17pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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getting there
  • #429,275
  • Apr 22, 2016 9:15pm Apr 22, 2016 9:15pm
cable hast to break the channel or resistances, whatever paradigm you prefer. i expect a retrace on monday morning, followed by an explosion.
  • #429,276
  • Apr 23, 2016 4:39am Apr 23, 2016 4:39am
I am expecting the week to start bearish for cable until Wednesday, when a NO RATE HIKE decision should take it up to 1.46500. Gain should be limited as it has already moved up for no real reason (Probably anticipating no rate hike). Expecting a couple of Bullish week.
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #429,277
  • Apr 23, 2016 7:51am Apr 23, 2016 7:51am
Quoting Shiv999
I am expecting the week to start bearish for cable until Wednesday, when a NO RATE HIKE decision should take it up to 1.46500. Gain should be limited as it has already moved up for no real reason (Probably anticipating no rate hike). Expecting a couple of Bullish week.
excellent observation.Smart thing to do is buying the dips provided things unfold accordingly.
After Obama's firm persuasion of UK Not exit Euro pound is feeling little more stable.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #429,278
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:38am Apr 23, 2016 8:38am
I am learning and just wanted to see if this analysis makes sense.

On the H4 I identified an uptrend indicated by the 'Impulsive' red line, or at least bullish sentiment and all this activity is above the 200 EMA.
I can see a bullish channel appearing in the M30 and confirmed with a 38.2 fib retrace.

Is this prediction and analysis correct and my predication that it will rally out and up?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #429,279
  • Apr 23, 2016 8:41am Apr 23, 2016 8:41am
Quoting trademb
I am learning and just wanted to see if this analysis makes sense. On the H4 I identified an uptrend indicated by the 'Impulsive' red line, or at least bullish sentiment and all this activity is above the 200 EMA. I can see a bullish channel appearing in the M30 and confirmed with a 38.2 fib retrace. Is this prediction and analysis correct and my predication that it will rally out and up? Thanks {image}
what you are missing is fundemetal angle.
Your thinking should be Weds huge Fed reserve interest rate decision and depending on that I would plan my trades.
Don't make trades before major events
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #429,280
  • Apr 23, 2016 9:14am Apr 23, 2016 9:14am
Thanks Davit.

I am not looking to enter the trade until it breaks pattern, but I just wanted to check that my analysis and identification of trend and pattern makes some sense..

Okay thanks for that advise and it makes perfect sense. So depending on what the market sentiment is after the FED interest rate decision on Wednesday, the price could be break the pattern either way..?

I would naturally wait until the pattern is broken then trade that direction. Plotted a long potion on my chart (assuming news makes gbp strong against dollar)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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