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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #428,641
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:11am Apr 17, 2016 5:11am
Downside continue next week i recon. Close below 1.42 on Friday, the 1.4240 was fake push up. Not surprised if on Asia session we go back to 1.4150.
  • #428,642
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:21am Apr 17, 2016 5:21am
same fractal on EUR USD before it started to sell off. This move is far from being complete also.
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  • #428,643
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:22am Apr 17, 2016 5:22am
also EUR USD broke this TL on H4. Do you think this is bullish or bearish? What's the implication for EUR GBP?
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  • #428,644
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:25am Apr 17, 2016 5:25am
do you think trading at top of the 2 year trading range in EUR USD is bullish or bearish?
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  • #428,645
  • Edited 12:49pm Apr 17, 2016 7:43am | Edited 12:49pm
I've looked and eur gbp over a year it has a weak correlation and gbp chf is moderate ,its not a safe stable correlation the trend has skewed things

http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market.../EURGBP-GBPUSD
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...cy-correlation

https://www.tradingfloor.com/tools/f...elations-table
Quoting Bones
well isn't the point that correlation change all the time ,but it is possible for extended periods only last year ,dose not EG uptrend skew things {quote}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #428,646
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:27pm Apr 17, 2016 12:27pm
#GBPUSD still on the sidelines, pound is still in a range and it is getting tighter....... pound right at the 45deg angle..... needs to stay above for me to go long...
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #428,647
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:38pm Apr 17, 2016 12:38pm
​what I posted about AU top being in, evidently I was wrong, I waited for 0.7729, missed it... 0.7733x top atm, bigger picture, AU may have 0.7965 set up valid, EU rise to 1.17 and GU rise to 1.45/6 perhaps? I don't want to see GU close above that 1.4250 I posted yest, id like 1.396x next min along with db before GBP recovers..

I may be wrong (probably will be) albeit only 4 pips on AU but I was wrong
  • #428,648
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:43pm Apr 17, 2016 12:43pm
My levels I watch.
Give or take around 30 pips from the lines.

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  • #428,649
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:49pm Apr 17, 2016 12:49pm
Quoting attilafx
My levels I watch. Give or take around 30 pips from the lines. {image}
​why did you draw the lines where you have?
  • #428,650
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:52pm Apr 17, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​why did you draw the lines where you have?
Because that's where support and resistance should come in to play.

Just check 4 hour charts for failed hammers and inverted hammers how their top become significant support and resistance.
  • #428,651
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:55pm Apr 17, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting attilafx
{quote} Because that's where support and resistance should come in to play. Just check 4 hour charts for failed hammers and inverted hammers how their top become significant support and resistance.
​they seem to be drawn at the closes of the candle, not where the buying or selling ended.. if you get me
  • #428,652
  • Apr 17, 2016 12:55pm Apr 17, 2016 12:55pm
Sometimes, a picture tells more than words.

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  • #428,653
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:01pm Apr 17, 2016 1:01pm
above 4240 GU will turn on bull mode big time, that's top end of the major volume cluster, once GU clears that it's a flawless ride to the next value area @ 4380.
But you know my deal I guess already. if we crack above 4240 with full body H4 then it's all the way to 4520. And then bears can have their next leg south until 3960.

Having said that if GU fails to keep ground above 4200 and will loose momentum below 4180 then we will very likely see 3960.

Probability wise I'd say scenario 1 75% scenario 2 25%.

Charts I posted a whole bunch previously. You know me. I'm more on the H&S side rather then triangle on daily. I see EG / GJ / GCHF at critical decision turning points.
  • #428,654
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:02pm Apr 17, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting attilafx
Sometimes, a picture tells more than words. {image}
​It does, and because I don't know your stops/tps RRR I cant really comment if the boot fits
  • #428,655
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:02pm Apr 17, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​they seem to be drawn at the closes of the candle, not where the buying or selling ended.. if you get me
Expectation for EU.
Same principle everywhere on the 4 hour charts.

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  • #428,656
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:05pm Apr 17, 2016 1:05pm
Quoting attilafx
{quote} Expectation for EU. Same principle everywhere on the 4 hour charts. {image}
yes. finally someone who makes sense on EU.
  • #428,657
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:08pm Apr 17, 2016 1:08pm
Quoting asgcorp
above 4240 GU will turn on bull mode big time, that's top end of the major volume cluster, once GU clears that it's a flawless ride to the next value area @ 4380. But you know my deal I guess already. if we crack above 4240 with full body H4 then it's all the way to 4520. And then bears can have their next leg south until 3960. Having said that if GU fails to keep ground above 4200 and will loose momentum below 4180 then we will very likely see 3960. Probability wise I'd say scenario 1 75% scenario 2 25%. Charts I posted a whole bunch previously....
Ive got 1.432x/3x for best chance shorts, and formed a cluster of resistance after that last swing down here... (red fib biggest, then cyan then yellow)

I'm still advocating for 1,396x if 1.4250 isn't taken and closed above... then I'm out for those levels above
  • #428,658
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:21pm Apr 17, 2016 1:21pm
apparently no deal in Doha Oil-Freeze Talks End in Failure Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran

Risk commod assets to get hit Monday (AU NU UC)
  • #428,659
  • Apr 17, 2016 1:27pm Apr 17, 2016 1:27pm
I prefer to look at sup/res based on volume clusters price will choose the path of least resistance, the bull case is not cast in stone, that's why I'm saying that 4240 and 4180 is key atm, price sliding below 4180 will allow for 3960, however upside momentum buildup above 4240 will have the price travel at the path of least resistance and this means all the way up to 4500.
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  • #428,660
  • Apr 17, 2016 2:37pm Apr 17, 2016 2:37pm
Golden breakout level for a short on a pullback:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8877682

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