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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #427,861
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:10am Apr 11, 2016 9:10am
even the 1hr breakout structure is clean as a whistle.

Also very overstretched.

London has had it's fun, got in at a great price and has made it's money.

Now time to hand the reins over to NY to do the same?
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  • #427,862
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:15am Apr 11, 2016 9:15am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} you got that right Approaching the retest {image} {image}
what if price enters the triangle (on your chart)? does it means it will ignore 4380?
  • #427,863
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:15am Apr 11, 2016 9:15am
asgcorp: that's one way to look at it, but on the next few bars, is there any high up volume in this area, that doesn't move price very much(absorption)? Is the next up vol very small relative to the red candle before it(no interest)? Point is Direction change takes time to form, it usually isn't found in 1 bar, but a series of a story it is conveying. Breakouts are actually easier to determine as significantly higher vol at the breakout has a high probability of being correct, like in the chart before..
Because I see a red candle now, I do nothing. The next series of bars and the vol story will make it much clearer what the "intention" is.
  • #427,864
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:21am Apr 11, 2016 9:21am
Quoting nealpek
asgcorp: that's one way to look at it, but on the next few bars, is there any high up volume in this area, that doesn't move price very much(absorption)? Is the next up vol very small relative to the red candle before it(no interest)? Point is Direction change takes time to form, it usually isn't found in 1 bar, but a series of a story it is conveying. Breakouts are actually easier to determine as significantly higher vol at the breakout has a high probability of being correct, like in the chart before.. Because I see a red candle now, I do nothing....
ok got it thank you for the explanation. Do you use volume cut off / trigger levels, let's say vol < 2000 no trade taken or is it not worthwhile?
  • #427,865
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:23am Apr 11, 2016 9:23am
Quoting nixdem
{quote} what if price enters the triangle (on your chart)? does it means it will ignore 4380?
Sorry mate, I'm not sure what you are getting at.

4380 area resistance has been retested and firmly rejected the week before last. Why does it need to go there again?

Price can pierce into the triangle and it's still a valid pattern to short from, but a candle close inside would indicate it's likely to be invalid
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  • #427,866
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:25am Apr 11, 2016 9:25am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} ... Price can pierce into the triangle and it's still a valid pattern to short from, but a candle close inside would indicate it's likely to be invalid
didn't look at it like that, thanks

let's see if 4235 gets defended
  • #427,867
  • Edited 10:11am Apr 11, 2016 9:26am | Edited 10:11am
never say never ,the fed thing out the blue I don't know ,do I want to change that daily ? no way percentage wise Im saying its low to be a reversal this one ,have a look at examples yourself ,


Quoting sharpshoot
{quote} It won't reverse even bad fed news , today maximum up target is 1.4380 based on daily trading range , is it correct ?
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  • #427,868
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:26am Apr 11, 2016 9:26am
Quoting nixdem
{quote} didn't look at it like that, thanks let's see if 4235 gets defended
no probs
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  • #427,869
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:27am Apr 11, 2016 9:27am
Not necessary. It's relative volume that matters, in the context of the last few bars. 4k is much more relevant to 1k, and would catch my eye more than 14k to 16K.
When previous vol bar is half the height of the next bar, significant, regardless of the actual vol number of the bar!
  • #427,870
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:28am Apr 11, 2016 9:28am
I can see this being pushed to R3 (1.43180). The 10 SMA green line has stuck true so far today since 1.41260.

Does that make sense or am I chatting complete waffle?
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  • #427,871
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:38am Apr 11, 2016 9:38am
Quoting nealpek
Not necessary. It's relative volume that matters, in the context of the last few bars. 4k is much more relevant to 1k, and would catch my eye more than 14k to 16K. When previous vol bar is half the height of the next bar, significant, regardless of the actual vol number of the bar!
ok got it boss, right now I see interest is fading.
  • #427,872
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:40am Apr 11, 2016 9:40am
Quoting nixdem
{quote} didn't look at it like that, thanks let's see if 4235 gets defended
I'd say it will be, we haven't reached the pattern yet.

Last 2 weeks have rejected the first fib ext. and i think this week will also.

I'm looking for a target of 3650 on 1 of my trades

time for bed here, as usual, I'll sleep through all the directional action
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  • #427,873
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:41am Apr 11, 2016 9:41am
trademb: I retired from MA's a long time ago, lol. An average of price over the last 20 bars is meaningless. Look at the green vol clump at the beginning of this nice move, and look at how far price moved. Look at the last set of vol, almost equal, but how far did price move in this clump? Good indication of absorption! Perhaps. It comes down to vol vs reward. If all that vol couldn't move price nearly as much as the first push, who is on the other side of this push? Would make me think lots of sellers coming in. Doesn't mean price will reverse on the spot, it takes time to build positions...
  • #427,874
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:45am Apr 11, 2016 9:45am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} but if her excitement rages and cable moves above 4124 then she can bounce cable t;o meet his mother in law [ daily 20 ma ] at 4225 entirely depending on how mother in law reacts cable might either go up or get thrashed to hell {quote} here the condom [ h1 rsi 14, 50 level ] decides if the excitement continues or breaks naturally she looses interest and cable drops to 4050 or lower
Hi check out the post on the daily chart poster 50ema is the resistance in yellow . Regards http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10378&page=21386
  • #427,875
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:49am Apr 11, 2016 9:49am
not a short setup yet, still trading above 50% of the body of that last tower green candle. can't short that.
  • #427,876
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:52am Apr 11, 2016 9:52am
some bulls are in hurry to close this 1H candle above 4280
  • #427,877
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:54am Apr 11, 2016 9:54am
I wouldn't short it yet, even though its in an area of interest to me. Could be just resting, or not. Don't jump the gun. There are still possible areas north as well. Let the story unfold and show you. Not trading is also an action, and this one can save you a lot of money!
  • #427,878
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:54am Apr 11, 2016 9:54am
Don't think it will get much higher today.
Short setup in place.
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  • #427,879
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:54am Apr 11, 2016 9:54am
too soon for opening a short position, i'll wait to see tomorrow PA...
  • #427,880
  • Apr 11, 2016 9:55am Apr 11, 2016 9:55am
Quoting nixdem
some bulls are in hurry to close this 1H candle above 4280
4300-4310 looks like a nice spot to short sell on thin volume
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