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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #427,221
  • Apr 2, 2016 12:28pm Apr 2, 2016 12:28pm
Hello, i trade using a Hedging strategy, and i have too many trades open now, can some body here help me and tell How is the trend in next 150-200 pips, please.
  • #427,222
  • Apr 2, 2016 12:32pm Apr 2, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting She1
Hello, i trade using a Hedging strategy, and i have too many trades open now, can some body here help me and tell How is the trend in next 150-200 pips, please.
see attached. use proper risk management. hedging sounds good.
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  • #427,223
  • Apr 2, 2016 12:39pm Apr 2, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} see attached. use proper risk management. hedging sounds good. {image}
Thank you. helpful.
  • #427,224
  • Apr 2, 2016 1:18pm Apr 2, 2016 1:18pm
IMHO, 4250/80 and then to 4130/4100.

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This will be do more to Pound weakness rather than Dollar strength. Truth is they're both falling hard. Pound just harder and faster atm.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #427,225
  • Apr 2, 2016 1:50pm Apr 2, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting albchr
IMHO, 4250/80 and then to 4130/4100. {image} This will be do more to Pound weakness rather than Dollar strength. Truth is they're both falling hard. Pound just harder and faster atm. {image} {image}
Hi Chris good to see you here
Should it fall 38S 4063 has strong support.Personally prefer Euro fall harder...EG is at critical 80 either continues going up or corrects to Pivot at 7880
Interesting and challenging month in terms of Feds, Brexit and possible RBA cut.We'll see.I am aiming at AU short since I see it as overextended.
regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #427,226
  • Apr 2, 2016 2:06pm Apr 2, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Chris good to see you here Should it fall 38S 4063 has strong support.Personally prefer Euro fall harder...EG is at critical 80 either continues going up or corrects to Pivot at 7880 Interesting and challenging month in terms of Feds, Brexit and possible RBA cut.We'll see.I am aiming at AU short since I see it as overextended. regards {image}
Hello Davit. Good to see you as well my brother.

EUR has been in a stubborn sideways range with an upward lean to it .... From what I see it has room to move up (in it's own special way ) a bit more.
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Yes, my GU target above is not the bottom overall but what I'll be looking at for this week. We have data that could make the ride a touch bumpy but we'll see.

Hope all is well man. We'll have to get back to some emails again.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #427,227
  • Apr 2, 2016 4:42pm Apr 2, 2016 4:42pm
I'll see your 1.45 and raise to 1.47?

The more I look at the monthly chart, the more convinced it needs a greater correction to retest the falling wedge breakout I have been watching for quite sometime.

I think it will be a vicious but brief spike (to take out Feb high) before more down

Yellen speaks Thurs.

After a good NFP, perfect opp for the Feds to yet again wrong foot the market with more dovish tones from yellen.

I will struggle to buy into it unless I see clear direction, but will have shorts waiting up there for sure
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #427,228
  • Apr 3, 2016 12:13am Apr 3, 2016 12:13am
wow view from monthly chart
i don't have enough margin
you all long term traders?
Don't trust me. I'm still newbie
  • #427,229
  • Apr 3, 2016 2:16am Apr 3, 2016 2:16am
Quoting niubee
wow view from monthly chart i don't have enough margin you all long term traders?
I dabble in a bit of both It's not a matter of margin if you manage your lot size relative to your account and watch lower TF PA at perceived point of interest.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #427,230
  • Apr 3, 2016 2:20am Apr 3, 2016 2:20am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} yeah we really seem to be in consolidation zone looking at weekly. Looks unusual and yep I think the up move willbe quite explosive, this is winding up in a real whipsaw way with contradicting weekly candles. I'm looking to get in short around 4280 targetting 4160 as a get in, get out trade.night all and green pips
not sure about this 4280 short as we are resting on 50fib support. If we just continue to drift down to 4140-50 area without a real retrace, will look for PA reasons to try a small long
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #427,231
  • Edited 2:36am Apr 3, 2016 2:23am | Edited 2:36am
[quote=Ill-b-back;8849925]I'll see your 1.45 and raise to 1.47? The more I look at the monthly chart, the more convinced it needs a greater correction to retest the falling wedge breakout I have been watching for quite sometime. I think it will be a vicious but brief spike (to take out Feb high) before more down
potential AB-CD on the daily to 1.47xx
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #427,232
  • Apr 3, 2016 4:38am Apr 3, 2016 4:38am
Quoting niubee
wow view from monthly chart i don't have enough margin you all long term traders?
What about the monthly chart? It looks like it will continue falling, but that much has been obvious for weeks now?
  • #427,233
  • Apr 3, 2016 4:43am Apr 3, 2016 4:43am
not much to see on monthly besides the fact that GBPUSD got into heavy demand zone / call it a potential tripple bottom setup.

Once again on fundies side, my take is that Brexit is too hyped, it's a binary event scheduled for month of June, today is April, we have good/above average data in UK, definately better then many other places now. Also Brexit currently affects options market, but spot to a lesser extent, yes Brexit is still big risk event, but May-June maybe we see some followthrough, currently Brexit - hyped/ too much attention. GU can still move to 4500-5000 before Brexit.
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  • #427,234
  • Apr 3, 2016 7:52am Apr 3, 2016 7:52am
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ta...-idUSKCN0X0099

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0WZ0T5

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...ade-war-looms/
  • #427,235
  • Apr 3, 2016 8:10am Apr 3, 2016 8:10am
GBP USD 1h if more down new week potential wave 5

on H4 potential 3orC
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  • #427,236
  • Apr 3, 2016 9:40am Apr 3, 2016 9:40am
A technical perspective: 2nd red dot on volume,very heavy volume(hide above this volume offers protection from being hit). Doesn't look like exhaustion or climax vol. Vol after this is weak and divergence is present. Did not close up past the blue arrow(1st red dot) high breakout vol to the left. Still have the .4120's and .4050's levels to clean and sweep. With all of this technical info present, I wish for a gap up, so that I can place shorts, and hide above the .4330 level. Definitely safe for awhile.
Happy trading, just my opinion!!
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  • #427,237
  • Apr 3, 2016 10:56am Apr 3, 2016 10:56am
Quoting asgcorp
not much to see on monthly besides the fact that GBPUSD got into heavy demand zone / call it a potential tripple bottom setup. Once again on fundies side, my take is that Brexit is too hyped, it's a binary event scheduled for month of June, today is April, we have good/above average data in UK, definately better then many other places now. Also Brexit currently affects options market, but spot to a lesser extent, yes Brexit is still big risk event, but May-June maybe we see some followthrough, currently Brexit - hyped/ too much attention. GU can...
A couple of observations if I may. Brexit is not too hyped,in my opinion, as it is a concrete risk for the UK. If it does happen, it would represent a major paradigm shift for the country and as such we could expect to see a deep dive in Sterling, at least initially. Many investors are not yet prepared and hedged for the event and we can expect more downside protection buyers as the date of the referendum approaches. The options market is directly link to the spot market: as investors buy lets say puts on the pound to protect themselves in case of a yes vote on Brexit, the dealers that sell those puts to them will hedge their delta (market) exposure by selling spot. That should put further downside pressure on the pound.

The main driver of the pound strength at the moment is the Fed dovishness and consequent dollar weakness, but as June approaches the pressure to the downside will increase for sterling so selling rallies might be the best strategy until then, I think....
  • #427,238
  • Apr 3, 2016 11:35am Apr 3, 2016 11:35am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} A couple of observations if I may. Brexit is not too hyped,in my opinion, as it is a concrete risk for the UK. If it does happen, it would represent a major paradigm shift for the country and as such we could expect to see a deep dive in Sterling, at least initially. Many investors are not yet prepared and hedged for the event and we can expect more downside protection buyers as the date of the referendum approaches. The options market is directly link to the spot market: as investors buy lets say puts on the pound to protect themselves...
I agree with you, no body can tell how much "Brexit" is already priced in GBP rates right now, it should cause a major short-squeeze after the result in June should the vote be no brexit. So strategy is to sell rally, and buy after the event when the market calms.
  • #427,239
  • Apr 3, 2016 11:47am Apr 3, 2016 11:47am
its a super major support zone thats for sure , with some remarkable similarities to zone prior ,I think that month could break ,could be significant side also



Quoting asgcorp
not much to see on monthly besides the fact that GBPUSD got into heavy demand zone / call it a potential tripple bottom setup. Once again on fundies side, my take is that Brexit is too hyped, it's a binary event scheduled for month of June, today is April, we have good/above average data in UK, definately better then many other places now. Also Brexit currently affects options market, but spot to a lesser extent, yes Brexit is still big risk event, but May-June maybe we see some followthrough, currently Brexit - hyped/ too much attention. GU can...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #427,240
  • Apr 3, 2016 11:47am Apr 3, 2016 11:47am
My outlook on Cable for this week

Cable, also as expected, reversed from the major support as indicated in the last week’s analysis. GBPUSD moved from 1.4050 towards 1.4450 and closed the week at 1.4222 giving up most of the gains. I managed to close some of that rally see GBPUSD short trade setup
I still see cable to be a rather bearish case in the short to midterm. There is no indication from the Commitments of traders that markets are turning bullish yet. The double bottom at 1.3850 could be possible in the next few weeks.
Looking at the technical picture, GBPUSD if forming a consolidation patter around the current levels. The pair has been very volatile recently and printed high daily ranges. I expect this patter to continue with the bearish outlook in mind.
BULLS
I expect cable to range trade. The pair could continue toward lower band of the triangle (see screenshot below). 1.4120 could prove to be a good entry for bulls. I advise to get on the smaller time frame and seek a reversal patter first.
BEARS
Bears could have more opportunities to play. The pair could retrace towards the upper border before printing lower again. Bears could seek a short setup around 1. 4400.If Cable starts the weeks with lower prices, bears should wait for the break 1.4130, after the price pulls back from (1) towards 1.4150, shorts could be established again.
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