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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #426,761
  • Mar 25, 2016 3:25am Mar 25, 2016 3:25am
Quoting Shiv999
{quote} Probably bcoz of holiday...
yeah exactly GU spread 5 points currently. taking a day off anyway.
  • #426,762
  • Mar 25, 2016 3:29am Mar 25, 2016 3:29am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} H4 and D1 didn't close yet.
Surfing the 1.4085 long and praying for a clean wave up to the 50-day moving average @ 1.4279.

Happy Easter every one.
  • #426,763
  • Mar 25, 2016 3:31am Mar 25, 2016 3:31am
Quoting Shiv999
{quote} Yeah, I can see that... Not only G/U but A/U & U/C have increased spread, check the pic Any Idea why ? {image}
strange thing i never faced that before, i thought its temporary but it still exists, I asked from broker but they didn't give clear answer but they said send a screen of spreads to their support. its very hard to trade with 6pip spread specially on low volatility. i think they increase spreads against scalpers.
Failure is not failure if you learn from it...
  • #426,764
  • Mar 25, 2016 3:47am Mar 25, 2016 3:47am
because of German - UK bank holidays...
  • #426,765
  • Mar 25, 2016 4:24am Mar 25, 2016 4:24am
Quoting suneth2
{quote} strange thing i never faced that before, i thought its temporary but it still exists, I asked from broker but they didn't give clear answer but they said send a screen of spreads to their support. its very hard to trade with 6pip spread specially on low volatility. i think they increase spreads against scalpers.
Spread really is not necessary - sadly when you look at it you realise how much the odds are not in your favour - so today is a holiday right - spreads dont know that - market is low ok but people are trading so why increase the spread - you will find the answer sadly is because we can - where else can you start on zero place a trade for money and immedialty be in debt and close if you can with a profit that marks you at an opposite spread cost to the one you entered and thats just to close the trade - i figured this out generally -

0 = - 1.5

5 pips profit = 3.5 pips profit (after close price which is opposite price to your trade right -

so on a range of 6.5 pips you make on average 50 percent - broker gets the same - just a simple comparision thats all

and today was what 12 pips spread - and why - BECAUSE WE as in they CAN - there is no need for it ever .. biggest scam invented thats for sure ..
  • #426,766
  • Mar 25, 2016 4:31am Mar 25, 2016 4:31am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Spread really is not necessary - sadly when you look at it you realise how much the odds are not in your favour - so today is a holiday right - spreads dont know that - market is low ok but people are trading so why increase the spread - you will find the answer sadly is because we can - where else can you start on zero place a trade for money and immedialty be in debt and close if you can with a profit that marks you at an opposite spread cost to the one you entered and thats just to close the trade - i figured this out generally - 0 =...
Failure is not failure if you learn from it...
  • #426,767
  • Mar 25, 2016 4:54am Mar 25, 2016 4:54am
Quoting suneth2
{quote} strange thing i never faced that before, i thought its temporary but it still exists, I asked from broker but they didn't give clear answer but they said send a screen of spreads to their support. its very hard to trade with 6pip spread specially on low volatility. i think they increase spreads against scalpers.
I just got spread as high as 9.4 on G/U. I checked Hotforex, Fxpro and Octafx MT4s, they all have high spreads.

Like mentioned before, probably because of holiday, should be normal from Monday.
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #426,768
  • Mar 25, 2016 4:55am Mar 25, 2016 4:55am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} yeah exactly GU spread 5 points currently. taking a day off anyway.
Same here, No trading today because if I trade today (Scalp), my broker would earn more than me, Lol
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #426,769
  • Mar 25, 2016 6:02am Mar 25, 2016 6:02am
Quoting Shiv999
{quote} Yeah, I can see that... Not only G/U but A/U & U/C have increased spread, check the pic Any Idea why ? {image}
All major banks are closed due to easter holidays. So that spread can be much higher
Cham
  • #426,770
  • Edited 11:30am Mar 25, 2016 6:16am | Edited 11:30am
#10 Trade Setup

Since I got stopped out at breakeven and my outlook didn't change. I have a new long setup.

If candle opens above 1.41350 and closes below 1.41850 this wil be my entry signal to place a buy stop above the trendline @1.4185.
I will place my S/L @ 1.4135 (-50PIPS) so it will be below the previous candle.
T/P will be at the 50% fib line @1.4285 (+100 PIPS) since I could be trading a retracement on a new downtrend.
-> This gives me a setup with a Risk/Reward of 1:2.

I will risk 1% of my account.

If EMA 5 crosses SMA 8 downward I will wait for a new LL to be formed and trade the trendline breakout below 1.4040.
If it crosses again upward this will be a direct entry signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
  • #426,771
  • Mar 25, 2016 6:24am Mar 25, 2016 6:24am
Buy Terminated. Look for 500pip down on coming weeks.
Never follow/blame others,Patience is the key skill for Succesfull trading.
  • #426,772
  • Mar 25, 2016 9:18am Mar 25, 2016 9:18am
Seems this crappy doesn't wanna fall anymore, isn't it?
Don't give up
  • #426,773
  • Mar 25, 2016 9:43am Mar 25, 2016 9:43am
Quoting geomink
Seems this crappy doesn't wanna fall anymore, isn't it?
I expect a leg down to 1.41075 to close my shorts
let's see
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  • #426,774
  • Mar 25, 2016 9:45am Mar 25, 2016 9:45am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} I expect a leg down to 1.41075 to close my shorts let's see {image}
waiting me too but it's pivoting on the daily instead
Don't give up
  • #426,775
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:11am Mar 25, 2016 10:11am
there's not going go be a "500 pips drop" in GBPUSD not until the Brexit (if ever) is actually voted for and announced.
Trading strat right now: sell short upon breaking weak resistance. Until 3960. Then I'm looking for a turning point on GBP USD to be confirmed.
Once we turn, first target on long trade is 4360.

Open up monthly chart we are sitting right @ the tripple bott, GU won't move unless something big (negative) will happen.
  • #426,776
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:19am Mar 25, 2016 10:19am
here's EURGBP monthly chart -90% correlation with GBP USD. So for GBP USD to drop 500 points, EUR GBP will have to break above 8000 level, which is not
realistic in the current downtrend setup EURGBP is trading.

I'd say once we reach 8000 on EG, GU would be @ 3920-60 approx, and both will reverse. Let's wait and see what happens, this should be good within a week.
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  • #426,777
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:23am Mar 25, 2016 10:23am
remember in FX markets:
fundamentals > technicals

1 month = 4 weeks.
your monthly analysis may be proven wrong.

"realistic" is not the right word for forex trading

edit: EURGBP is in a clear bull trend.
___

anyway I'll close shorts soon
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  • #426,778
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:30am Mar 25, 2016 10:30am
also let's run through average year range on EUR GBP. 2015 930 pips 2014 648 pips 2013 711 pips 2012 741 pips 2011 799 pips 2010 1060 pips.
Average run from high/low is 800 pips rounded. So far this year EURGBP low was 7314 + 800 points we get a topping in range of 8000-8100.

Once EURGBP tops out, GBP USD will reverse that's my point, so far this year EURGBP staged an amazing bullish rally due to weakness in pounds. But we are not far from the top now.
  • #426,779
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:31am Mar 25, 2016 10:31am
Quoting openyoureyes
EURGBP is in a clear bull trend.
no it's not. check the monthly chart above. and the previous post also.
  • #426,780
  • Mar 25, 2016 10:35am Mar 25, 2016 10:35am
EUR GBP weekly chart EW review, EW also pointing to a potential turning point at/near 8000 level
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