Commitments of Traders Report – Week 10 2016 ( ending 11th March)
This data is compiled post March NFP and Average Earnings reported during first week of March. It doesn’t include ECB news from last Thursday.
After a sharp decrease of long positions (3.6K) last week and the week before, we see that non-commercial traders held them unchanged this week.
It looks like traders were positioning for a drop in Euro as they were expecting Drahi to introduce more QE, as he did. It’s fair to say that many of them were caught on the wrong side this week.
At the moment non-commercial traders hold 104K long positions in Euro Futures. This is up from 65K at the beginning of 2016. For now, I don’t see them becoming bullish in Euro. This might change next week when ECB news are priced in.
From the short side, non-commercials added 3.5K new short positions. This is after they added a huge chunk (18K) in the previous week. And again, it was probably a positions taken before ECB conference.
Non-commercial traders now hold 176K short contracts. This is down from 160K at the beginning of 2016.
For now, we are still technically bearish here but the Drahi’s hangover might kick in in the coming weeks. FED’s remarks will play a role too.
We need to see much more long positions and a significant drop in shorts in order to take a long bias in this market.
This data is compiled post March NFP and Average Earnings reported during first week of March. It doesn’t include ECB news from last Thursday.
After a sharp decrease of long positions (3.6K) last week and the week before, we see that non-commercial traders held them unchanged this week.
It looks like traders were positioning for a drop in Euro as they were expecting Drahi to introduce more QE, as he did. It’s fair to say that many of them were caught on the wrong side this week.
At the moment non-commercial traders hold 104K long positions in Euro Futures. This is up from 65K at the beginning of 2016. For now, I don’t see them becoming bullish in Euro. This might change next week when ECB news are priced in.
From the short side, non-commercials added 3.5K new short positions. This is after they added a huge chunk (18K) in the previous week. And again, it was probably a positions taken before ECB conference.
Non-commercial traders now hold 176K short contracts. This is down from 160K at the beginning of 2016.
For now, we are still technically bearish here but the Drahi’s hangover might kick in in the coming weeks. FED’s remarks will play a role too.
We need to see much more long positions and a significant drop in shorts in order to take a long bias in this market.
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