EURUSD

Commitments of Traders Report – Week 10 2016 ( ending 11th March)

This data is compiled post March NFP and Average Earnings reported during first week of March. It doesn’t include ECB news from last Thursday.
After a sharp decrease of long positions (3.6K) last week and the week before, we see that non-commercial traders held them unchanged this week.
It looks like traders were positioning for a drop in Euro as they were expecting Drahi to introduce more QE, as he did. It’s fair to say that many of them were caught on the wrong side this week.

At the moment non-commercial traders hold 104K long positions in Euro Futures. This is up from 65K at the beginning of 2016. For now, I don’t see them becoming bullish in Euro. This might change next week when ECB news are priced in.
From the short side, non-commercials added 3.5K new short positions. This is after they added a huge chunk (18K) in the previous week. And again, it was probably a positions taken before ECB conference.

Non-commercial traders now hold 176K short contracts. This is down from 160K at the beginning of 2016.
For now, we are still technically bearish here but the Drahi’s hangover might kick in in the coming weeks. FED’s remarks will play a role too.
We need to see much more long positions and a significant drop in shorts in order to take a long bias in this market.

this thread very familiar with crop charts
eu 4h

see blue chanel.price under it is bearish
eu week

K

GS.

Took back what I have stated....samo samo... looking for support to fund his blog.

Shorted here eu at 1.1166

I've been on a long EU since friday... lets see how it plays out.

neither should a live account :-)

markets not going anywhere today. But this is a really really busy week ahead. Make sure to catch part of the cake!

the market goes down today

EURUSD. Moved my stop.

Dont miss this week full f surprises.. Enjoy the killing 😈😈

If Japan pulls a good one it could bring back Euro to drop when Draghi first spoke because the YEN needs that drop. Asian export numbers are bad now.

That could work too.

so apparently 1.1300/1250 play on board before next leg down towards 1.077 down to 1.065. take care while playing in a bear set up . fontu

+1000 for this remark. true veteran traders see account balance as just figures and %s. nothing more.

wating for london to set the tone. now flat. looking to sell under wedge and long above it. lol very advanced stuff here.
gl all! and have fun!

Still sitting in.

Weekly Chart Analysis – 13 March 2016

EURUSD: 30min – 4h – Daily view
It was a big day for EURUSD. Drahi definitely fooled the markets. At first ECB delivered expected liquidity and then, during the press conference talked about less room for cuts in the future. EURUSD dipped initially towards the former support at 1.0820 right after the announcement and than staged a huge rally on Drahi’s comments. After reaching 1.1210, it closed the week near highs at 1.1145.
It’s really difficult to analyse the chart after such a move. Drahi’s comments were definitely a surprise for the market and the reaction was impulsive. Many traders were caught on the wrong side of the market and we saw massive short covering on the way towards 1.12.

There is no evidence suggesting that markets are turning bullish on Euro. Commitments of Traders data suggest that bearish bias is pretty much intact. Although, I see many Non-commercial traders were positioned on the short side of the market last week.
From technical perspective EURUSD is in uptrend since 1.820 support and long positions should be considered on pullbacks.

Bulls should wait for a pullback towards 1.1050. The former resistance now becomes a support and could provide opportunity to enter long positions. This level is also 50% Fib retracement measured between low 2nd March and high 10th March. If market reacts to this level and buys, this would print another higher low.

Bears would have to wait for 1.1050 to be broken to the downside and a pullback towards same level to consider short positions.
Seems like there are more reasons to seek long positions then shorts.
Bulls @ 1.1050
Bears @ have to wait for the break below 1.1050

Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP

Anyone here watching DAX? Just hit 9,999.. Seems a bit overbought now, no? Just broke 10,000 as I type now

This random selloff giving me headache. Bull turning into bear randomly. Technical analysis failing due to central bank's continuous control over exchange rate.
I don't see any fking reason to fall down at this important situation.