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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #2,281
  • Mar 7, 2016 11:13pm Mar 7, 2016 11:13pm
Quoting vvFish
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
without high impact NEWS, are you trading?
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,282
  • Mar 8, 2016 2:29am Mar 8, 2016 2:29am
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} without high impact NEWS, are you trading?
Of course
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,283
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:40am Mar 9, 2016 2:40am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes .
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,284
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:22am Mar 9, 2016 7:22am
New Zealand Dollar
Officially it is expected that Reserve bank of New Zealand would keep their OCR rate unchanged at 2.5% which would not have any major affect on the currency pair. While some of the other analysts expect that Reserve bank would cut the OCR by 0.25% and this can be a disaster for Kiwi. Although currently markets are reacting positive on the expectations of no change in the OCR rates. It would be interesting to see if RBNZ does something impetus or not?!!
  • #2,285
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:13am Mar 9, 2016 9:13am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,286
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:16am Mar 9, 2016 9:16am
Quoting payaltaneja
New Zealand Dollar Officially it is expected that Reserve bank of New Zealand would keep their OCR rate unchanged at 2.5% which would not have any major affect on the currency pair. While some of the other analysts expect that Reserve bank would cut the OCR by 0.25% and this can be a disaster for Kiwi. Although currently markets are reacting positive on the expectations of no change in the OCR rates. It would be interesting to see if RBNZ does something impetus or not?!!
We need trade and not to look.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,287
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:34am Mar 9, 2016 9:34am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,288
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:43am Mar 9, 2016 9:43am
NZD

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Markets lay 30% chance of lowering the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the current meeting in March. At the same time the official forecasts are divided in a ratio of 35/65 (35% voted for the analysts is that the RBNZ cut rates now).

This structure fully reflects the current expectations of market participants, who are laying the RBNZ interest rate cut to 0.5% by the end of this year.

According to the latest quarterly growth of inflation in New Zealand amounted to -0.5%, while the annual rate of growth was 0.1%, well below the target level. RBNZ inflation target level is in the range of 1% -3%.

Nevertheless, there is a positive trend of the labor market as unemployment dropped from 6% to 5.3%.

For lower interest rates and stagnant says the dairy sector, at the same time, growth in property prices "vote against" such action by the RBNZ.

Since March, followed by the new data of quarterly GDP growth in New Zealand, the RBNZ can actually pause before the next meeting, when it will be in the center of the attention of its protocols. Probably, the Bank may set the stage for further easing, which will be reflected in the accompanying captions.

Accordingly, when, at a fixed rate, you will see volatility NZD - pay attention to its cause: the accompanying protocols. Do not miss this release, as the RBNZ is on the "balance of action" that can disperse to current projections.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,289
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:09pm Mar 9, 2016 2:09pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,290
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:18pm Mar 9, 2016 2:18pm
Thursday
11:00
10/3/16
NO GOOD The core index of consumer prices
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.

Thursday
14:45
10/3/16
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank (not recommended to trade)
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

ECB, headed by Mario Draghi likes to lay a pig markets - it is his style. No exception and this meeting. We do not recommend using the signal of this release, and here's why ...
Background
Expect new stimulus measures from the European Central Bank. Expectations formed a long time, and from the words of Mario Draghi: March - is the key point when it is decided ...
Expected decline in deposit interest rate from -0.3% to -0.4% while the refinancing rate unchanged. Also, the expansion of QE is expected to at least $ 70 billion.
Total: incentives promised by Draghi, but the main risk is that what they will be?
The main risk of the line
Even despite the fact that monetary policy can be really relaxed, markets may seem like it's not enough! Against this background, the reaction may be inadequate EUR.
For example, imagine that the deposit interest rate has been reduced, but the QE program was not increased. How to behave in the market in such a case? The rate is forecast to strengthen. To strengthen the euro and the fact that QE will not increase, but imagine that on this background Draghi says and extension of QE. As it is now? And this is only part of the ballet. In parallel, the refinancing rate and the deposit rate will be published also Marginal Landing. And if enough of the proposed measures seem to markets?
On the one hand, we have a pullback in oil prices (Mario Draghi promised new measures in January, against a historical low oil prices), on the other hand we have deflation -0.2%.
On the likely actions of the ECB, and Mario can always talk, but the pig will be present with a probability of 60%.
Why not trade
The vast number of tools that can be applied ECB is large enough to build a risky event. Displacement verbal attack can not be predicted, but at the same time may be critical for the reaction. Even in the case of a positive development of the situation, history does not know traders who would be able to exploit the situation to the full (risk even in a uniform movement large enough).
That is why we do not recommend trading this indicator.

Thursday
17:30
10/3/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,291
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:43pm Mar 9, 2016 2:43pm
Change in Ichimoku. 2,48,2
new template.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl !!!!!!!!news_USDJPY_1m.tpl   457 KB | 467 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 !_Signal_Bars_Executive_v1_.ex4   119 KB | 522 downloads

when you change the template do not forget to set the time in the indicator.
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,292
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:48pm Mar 9, 2016 3:48pm
Hi vvfish

RBNZ did say that there may be further cuts on the way in January- and there was no cut in January

The number one indicator RBNZ seems really to consider is inflation and obviously this was way too low

This I think was a big red flag
  • #2,293
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:40pm Mar 9, 2016 4:40pm
Great spike over 350 pips up on NZD Interest Rate in first 10 seconds after announcing the news:

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This is good example, how much trading news on Interest Rate can move the price
Good trading luck to all of us
  • #2,294
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:04pm Mar 9, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
I stuck in CAD, because i took a gamble on Long trade.

Luckily, Get out with BE this morning
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,295
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:48pm Mar 9, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} I stuck in CAD, because i took a gamble on Long trade. Luckily, Get out with BE this morning
.....
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,296
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:02am Mar 10, 2016 12:02am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} .....
If the trend did reverse, i will make about 10%-15%, this is my "2ndSLBI". low probability, high reward.
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #2,297
  • Edited 5:59am Mar 10, 2016 3:47am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting vvFish
Change in Ichimoku. 2,48,2 new template. {image} {file} {file} when you change the template do not forget to set the time in the indicator. {image}
Thanks for the indicator.Do you have mq4 for the signal bars executive?Just wanna modify the balance.I'm not a coder but I would like to give it a try.Or if someone could fix that it will be great.
Attached Image
  • #2,298
  • Mar 10, 2016 4:44am Mar 10, 2016 4:44am
no
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,299
  • Mar 10, 2016 5:04am Mar 10, 2016 5:04am
ECB
You can watch it live here: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,300
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:53am Mar 10, 2016 6:53am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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