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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #426,001
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:26am Mar 9, 2016 10:26am
Quoting Luzbay
Posting from the pub - so please take with a pinch of salt - but H4 and H1 showing bearish divergence. Given today's price action, I'll be looking to get in a short before close tonight. This post was brought to you by overpriced Peroni.
hmmm. last few sessions are range bound, but I'd stay with buy dips strategy for now on GU. We didn't fill that gap yet, so until then and until we get 4400+ not a great idea to be short this market. sure it can drop from 4220 to 4180, but is it worthwhile?
  • #426,002
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:37am Mar 9, 2016 10:37am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} hmmm. last few sessions are range bound, but I'd stay with buy dips strategy for now on GU. We didn't fill that gap yet, so until then and until we get 4400+ not a great idea to be short this market. sure it can drop from 4220 to 4180, but is it worthwhile?
Depending on your strategy and lot size, yes. But I take your point.

Dean - London Pride a-plenty!
  • #426,003
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:40am Mar 9, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Luzbay
{quote} Depending on your strategy and lot size, yes. But I take your point. Dean - London Pride a-plenty!
Awesome news ..
sold at 142 300 - target aim 141 900 just a short scalp
  • #426,004
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:41am Mar 9, 2016 10:41am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} might be the advent of new systems out there with these algos - totally know where you at - but its not impossible. Found less pips and more of them works these days ..
Ok but what's this new algo reacting to? What piece of shit news caused this new algo to spike up price by 50 pips? That's what I want to know so I can avoid it in the future. For a scalper, those big wipeouts are ridiculous!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #426,005
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:46am Mar 9, 2016 10:46am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Awesome news .. sold at 142 300 - target aim 141 900 just a short scalp
I'm short at 1.4229, target 1.41869.

I'm here for a good time, not a long time! (the trade, that is...)
  • #426,006
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:47am Mar 9, 2016 10:47am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Ok but what's this new algo reacting to? What piece of shit news caused this new algo to spike up price by 50 pips? That's what I want to know so I can avoid it in the future. For a scalper, those big wipeouts are ridiculous!!
Ok dont shoot the piano player just because he only knows one song - but its more than likely just buying or selling back into the range of the day - notice how the high of asia was not taken out .. no news kinda seems like we can and so we do .. and to all you retailers what you gonna do about it .. answer .. exaclty we know this already ..
  • #426,007
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:52am Mar 9, 2016 10:52am
GU is in conso mode, 63 points range today could be likelt prepping for a break higher.
  • #426,008
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:54am Mar 9, 2016 10:54am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Ok dont shoot the piano player just because he only knows one song - but its more than likely just buying or selling back into the range of the day - notice how the high of asia was not taken out .. no news kinda seems like we can and so we do .. and to all you retailers what you gonna do about it .. answer .. exaclty we know this already ..
dean I rode the EG instead of GU yesterday/today. Short was easy since EG got rejected on H4 @ WP. Long today also kinda easy, GU ran out of steam, EU set at support, long EG. Now looks like EU H1 H&S pattern setup, EG likely to continue lower rest of the week. Chances are EU down on ECB and GU somehow up, or flat for that matter.
  • #426,009
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:04am Mar 9, 2016 11:04am
poised for stops and BO pension
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stops.png Size: 53 KB
  • #426,010
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:10am Mar 9, 2016 11:10am
Quoting Luzbay
Posting from the pub - so please take with a pinch of salt - but H4 and H1 showing bearish divergence. Given today's price action, I'll be looking to get in a short before close tonight. This post was brought to you by overpriced Peroni.
Hmm seems Peroni too strong nowadays ? Because I see completely the opposite.
In my chart I can see bearish divergence two days ago, so I think quite late for short.
Now might be hidden bullish divergence, but it's quite ugly I think.
edit: wrong screenshot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-03-09 1949 OANDA-GMT+2 Live - [GBPUSD,H4]_divergence.png Size: 34 KB
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #426,011
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:16am Mar 9, 2016 11:16am
EG short about to be triggered. 10 lots. SL 7780. TP 7560. could take a few trading sessions but.
  • #426,012
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:20am Mar 9, 2016 11:20am
Quoting voty
{quote} Hmm seems Peroni too strong nowadays ? Because I see completely the opposite. In my chart I can see bearish divergence two days ago, so I think quite late for short. Now might be hidden bullish divergence, but it's quite ugly I think. edit: wrong screenshot. {image}
Surely, in your screenshot, it's still making a bearish divergence. The indicator is making a lower low, whilst the price is making a higher high....?

Ps - I can confirm that Peroni is strong!
  • #426,013
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:22am Mar 9, 2016 11:22am
GU bullish news release.
Quote
Asahi Offers About $3.5 Billion for Peroni, Grolsch
  • #426,014
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:30am Mar 9, 2016 11:30am
Quoting asgcorp
GU bullish news release. {quote}
On the money!!
  • #426,015
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:58am Mar 9, 2016 11:58am
short EG @ market x10 lots SL previous high TP 7560. might take a few days it's a keeper anyway.
  • #426,016
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:15pm Mar 9, 2016 3:15pm
Weekly Fed Watch Hike probability increases further

Another pretty busy week behind us. The data for two most important elements of monetary policy were released last Friday.
NFP printed way above expectations. We saw 242K vs 195K prior. This is a huge boost to US employment.
Unfortunately, markets didnt care too much about new jobs.

All eyes were on the Average Earning report. This came as a big disappointment and contracted by negative 0.1%.
Market expected a growth of 0.2%. No wage inflation for US this time.
It seems like inflation is much needed to force FED to deliver promised back in December 2015 -1% discount rate.
At this stage(mid-March), it seems unlikely in 2016.
Having said that, markets increased their expectations of interest rate hike for 4th consecutive week.
It worth mentioning that each month almost doubled in probability since 10th January.
50% probability is now priced for as early as July.
The biggest weekly rate of increase was recorded for September and November.
These months are now priced at 58% and 61% respectively.

March is priced in @ 0%. This is down from 2% previously
April is priced @ 20%. This is unchanged from 20% previously
June is priced @ 44%. This is up from 32% previously
July is priced @ 49%. This is up from 35% previously
September is priced @ 58%. This is up from 43% previously
November is priced @ 61%. This is up from 47% previously.
December is priced @ 72%. This is up from 59% previously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fed watch.JPG Size: 76 KB
HumbleTraders
  • #426,017
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:48pm Mar 9, 2016 3:48pm
I got a feeling stop loss hunt above today highs coming tomorrow so I got sell at 1.4265 with sl 1.4300 and tp 1.4140 lets see.....
  • #426,018
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:40pm Mar 9, 2016 9:40pm
closed sell on pound dollar for 35 pips from last night and euro sell at 40 pips
banged em for 75 total .. have a long appearing for the pound dollar later on - if it works ..
  • #426,019
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:42pm Mar 9, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} dean I rode the EG instead of GU yesterday/today. Short was easy since EG got rejected on H4 @ WP. Long today also kinda easy, GU ran out of steam, EU set at support, long EG. Now looks like EU H1 H&S pattern setup, EG likely to continue lower rest of the week. Chances are EU down on ECB and GU somehow up, or flat for that matter.
alright comrade perastroika .. thats the spirit bang em away safely ..
  • #426,020
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:20pm Mar 9, 2016 10:20pm
Quoting dean1star
closed sell on pound dollar for 35 pips from last night and euro sell at 40 pips banged em for 75 total .. have a long appearing for the pound dollar later on - if it works ..
good morning , did you long now
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