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  • #95,961
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:30pm Mar 9, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting jabbo
sheep shaggers have just cut theirs.
omg
  • #95,962
  • Mar 9, 2016 12:32pm Mar 9, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting jabbo
I think the pressure will be on for the RBA to cut rates now that the sheep shaggers have just cut theirs.
who yous calling a sheep shagger bro
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  • #95,963
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:13pm Mar 9, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting jabbo
I think the pressure will be on for the RBA to cut rates now that the sheep shaggers have just cut theirs.
The RBA doesn't cut or increase them to affect the currency. They usually wait for the effects to filter through the economy and stats like inflation and GDP. So, they haven't really been fighting or joining in the currency wars. They are more likely to increase interest rates than decrease.
  • #95,964
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:15pm Mar 9, 2016 1:15pm
Quoting samgrey
{quote} The RBA doesn't cut or increase them to affect the currency. They usually wait for the effects to filter through the economy and stats like inflation and GDP. So, they haven't really been fighting or joining in the currency wars. They are more likely to increase interest rates than decrease.
It was tongue in cheek mate. Us Aussies can never let a kiwi out-do us.
  • #95,965
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:18pm Mar 9, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting jabbo
{quote} It was tongue in cheek mate. Us Aussies can never let a kiwi out-do us.
But I think they did just recently bro. Rugby World Cup 2015 final New Zealand make history with stunning 34-17 win over Australia
  • #95,966
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:19pm Mar 9, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} But I think they did just recently bro. Rugby World Cup 2015 final New Zealand make history with stunning 34-17 win over Australia
Please don't mention that.
  • #95,967
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:16pm Mar 9, 2016 3:16pm
Weekly Fed Watch – Hike probability increases further

Another pretty busy week behind us. The data for two most important elements of monetary policy were released last Friday.
NFP printed way above expectations. We saw 242K vs 195K prior. This is a huge boost to US employment.
Unfortunately, markets didn’t care too much about new jobs.

All eyes were on the Average Earning report. This came as a big disappointment and contracted by negative 0.1%.
Market expected a growth of 0.2%. No wage inflation for US this time.
It seems like inflation is much needed to force FED to deliver promised back in December 2015 -1% discount rate.
At this stage(mid-March), it seems unlikely in 2016.
Having said that, markets increased their expectations of interest rate hike for 4th consecutive week.
It worth mentioning that each month almost doubled in probability since 10th January.
50% probability is now priced for as early as July.
The biggest weekly rate of increase was recorded for September and November.
These months are now priced at 58% and 61% respectively.

March is priced in @ 0%. This is down from 2% previously
April is priced @ 20%. This is unchanged from 20% previously
June is priced @ 44%. This is up from 32% previously
July is priced @ 49%. This is up from 35% previously
September is priced @ 58%. This is up from 43% previously
November is priced @ 61%. This is up from 47% previously.
December is priced @ 72%. This is up from 59% previously.
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,968
  • Mar 9, 2016 7:53pm Mar 9, 2016 7:53pm
^ combined with RBNZ cutting this morning and putting additional pressure on the RBA to curb the rise of the AUD, I'd sell more around 7500 with anything above 7540 indicating further legs up to fill bigger shorts but inevitably, 67-68 could be the target come budget time in May.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #95,969
  • Mar 9, 2016 8:28pm Mar 9, 2016 8:28pm
Quoting gfscapital
Aussie making new multi-year highs {image}
Multi Year Highs ????
It's trading at a 9-month Hi.
Some perspective needed I think.
  • #95,970
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:53pm Mar 9, 2016 10:53pm
3rd sign a break of 0.7420 level will further confirm we have a short term top on the aussie
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,971
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:18pm Mar 9, 2016 11:18pm
shorter resistance is at todays low 0.7460 a break would be nice place to scalping shorts to the 0.7420 level
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,972
  • Mar 10, 2016 12:23am Mar 10, 2016 12:23am
bull is getting weaker most probably a short term top is in place break of 0.7460 and the 0.7420 will further confirm

good news for shorts
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,973
  • Mar 10, 2016 2:09am Mar 10, 2016 2:09am
I think that if it breaks below 0.7460 it will fall to 0.7400, I have shorts for now.
  • #95,974
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:35am Mar 10, 2016 6:35am
at last Bulls gave up the 0.7460 now most probably we'll be heading to 0.7420 level expect some good demand in this area
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,975
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:57am Mar 10, 2016 6:57am
Quoting blue_z_zz
at last Bulls gave up the 0.7460 now most probably we'll be heading to 0.7420 level expect some good demand in this area
7425 waiting there
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #95,976
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:59am Mar 10, 2016 6:59am
Quoting stulic
{quote} 7425 waiting there
That's were my tp's at

But I wouldn't be buying Aussie think it probably a short term reversal I would like to see it hold up at 0.7250 then I will decide if I long it again
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,977
  • Mar 10, 2016 10:36am Mar 10, 2016 10:36am
I'm also waiting for 0.725
I think the big money managers will close their AUD longs soon.
  • #95,978
  • Mar 10, 2016 6:16pm Mar 10, 2016 6:16pm
TGIF!

Friday, most likely is a pullback day.
Pull back to neutral area before i will know if the bulls are still in charge, won't rule that out until there is a clear reversal sign that the top is formed at .7530.

Have a great weekend to all!
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  • #95,979
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:16pm Mar 10, 2016 7:16pm
if we don't get a new higher high today we most probably got our final sign that a short term top is in place and need to break 0.7420-30 level for further weakness
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,980
  • Mar 10, 2016 7:21pm Mar 10, 2016 7:21pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
if we don't get a new higher high today we most probably got our final sign that a short term top is in place and need to break 0.7420-30 level for further weakness

Agree, as long we don't get a new high today
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