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AUD/USD

  • #95,941
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:29am Mar 9, 2016 2:29am
Quoting SkyrEk
Hi all traders
nice post regardless of the direction of AU. I like your thought process. You might be right also. If we push above 50% on my chart next up is 7660. AU currently very closely following copper prices, which burst up 20% Monday, clear sign that might be more gains to follow.

I'm still not convinced that AU is changing to uptrend from downtrend. Revised strat here is breakout above 50% long until 7660-80 and then upon resistance I'd look to short sell, but that might be few weeks away from now.
  • #95,942
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:03am Mar 9, 2016 3:03am
moody's report on Australian economy report is lock but here are some points

 

  1. 2015 GDP Growth Defies and shows resilience to external shocks
  2. Australia's robust GDP growth is credit positive

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,943
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:04am Mar 9, 2016 3:04am
Quoting blue_z_zz
moody's report on Australian economy report is lock but here are some points 2015 GDP Growth Defies and shows resilience to external shocks Australia's robust GDP growth is credit positive
good post!
  • #95,944
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:06am Mar 9, 2016 3:06am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} good post!
thanks mate
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,945
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:11am Mar 9, 2016 3:11am
Consolidation ahead.
  • #95,946
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:14am Mar 9, 2016 3:14am
here is something for the contrarians

retail traders has shifted to net short this pair since mid feb and short position is increasing and on the flip side big speculators and leveraged funds have flipped to net long at the same period and increasing as shown in weekly COT report

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
http://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/a...osition-ratios
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,947
  • Mar 9, 2016 3:16am Mar 9, 2016 3:16am
Quoting blue_z_zz
here is something for the contrarians retail traders has shifted to net short this pair since mid feb and short position is increasing and on the flip side big speculators and leveraged funds have flipped to net long at the same period and increasing as shown in weekly COT report https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment http://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/a...osition-ratios

Can confirm this. 71% of retail traders using cTrader are short.
  • #95,948
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:31am Mar 9, 2016 4:31am
Quoting blue_z_zz
{quote} good luck chisel
Thanks. I'll see you at .65.
  • #95,949
  • Mar 9, 2016 4:34am Mar 9, 2016 4:34am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Thanks. I'll see you at .65.
hopefully I be on the short side when that happens
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,950
  • Mar 9, 2016 5:16am Mar 9, 2016 5:16am
Aussie making new multi-year highs
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HumbleTraders
  • #95,951
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:22am Mar 9, 2016 9:22am
Not touching Aud/usd with a ten foot pole.... the daily is so far over-bought and continues to rise. At least need some consolidation
forex forex forex
  • #95,952
  • Mar 9, 2016 9:39am Mar 9, 2016 9:39am
Quoting SkyrEk
Hi all traders, Been busy scalping and lazy to post any entries in the forum in recent weeks. Anyways, if you are still bearish on this pair, there are only two possibilities why you are a bear. 1) You are short since .80. 2) You have really deep pockets. Much as i do not want to hold a bias when i trade, but i can't help but to let you guys know something. This is my daily chart. .7380 is a level that was tested FOUR times. On its fifth attempt, it finally mange to broke through it and went upwards. I hope this allows traders over here to have...

An update.
Took partial profit, let the rest run and SL at BE.

Good trading week!
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  • #95,953
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:25am Mar 9, 2016 10:25am
Quoting starscapital
once we break 7500 the shorts will be squeeeezed... shooting for 7530
I love being right
  • #95,954
  • Mar 9, 2016 10:37am Mar 9, 2016 10:37am
negative divergence is showing on the 4hr timeframe for the last 2 highs and now the 3rd high also showing negative divergence compared to the the last 2 highs

So we are most probably coming to an end of this up move but I need more confirmation with price action to start shorting the Aussie

One more thing we have a strong resistance level at 0.7590-7600 level
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,955
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:01am Mar 9, 2016 11:01am
Quoting blue_z_zz
negative divergence is showing on the 4hr timeframe for the last 2 highs and now the 3rd high also showing negative divergence compared to the the last 2 highs So we are most probably coming to an end of this up move but I need more confirmation with price action to start shorting the Aussie One more thing we have a strong resistance level at 0.7590-7600 level
so do you just use the negative divergence to close your longs for now?
What is your preferred confirmation for shorts?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #95,956
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:05am Mar 9, 2016 11:05am
Quoting dab
{quote} so do you just use the negative divergence to close your longs for now? What is your preferred confirmation for shorts?
I need to see the resistance level tested 07590 or we start making LL and LH on the higher time frames 4hr or even hourly
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,957
  • Mar 9, 2016 11:14am Mar 9, 2016 11:14am
Quoting dab
{quote} so do you just use the negative divergence to close your longs for now? What is your preferred confirmation for shorts?
One of the first signs I look for mate is divergence it tells you a lot about the bull or bear momentum it doesn't tell you the high or low but it give you a sign an indication
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,958
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:03pm Mar 9, 2016 1:03pm
I think there is no stopping for AU. it should touch 0.76 level soon but not before testing 0.738 level, it has retraced from that point already during the week start but still i smell it would retrace down before going up.
Also NZD news will be out today, expecting to see some change in trend after that.
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #95,959
  • Mar 9, 2016 1:58pm Mar 9, 2016 1:58pm
2nd signal is just being confirmed the 4hr candle close
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,960
  • Mar 9, 2016 2:21pm Mar 9, 2016 2:21pm
I think the pressure will be on for the RBA to cut rates now that the sheep shaggers have just cut theirs.
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