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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,381
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:23am Mar 1, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} There is a quote I can't seem to find. A point in which you said the markets don't trade politics, the markets trade risk and expectations (paraphrasing badly). Really need to bookmark that- I see potential to post it every. single. day. If you find it sometime, let me know. I've looked
hmm ...I may have a few dozen quotes related to that I am not sure which phrase exactly you are referring. Try googling with [site:www.forexfactory.com sisse "quote xxx" ].... The last 2 i found are below ...if you track back the chat from there you may find the exact phrase you are looking for ...

Quoting sisse
{quote} ....We PRIMARILY trade EXPECTATIONS (in any market) before news (in stocks from p/e to supply/weather in orange juice futures) so you will need to go a bit further {image}
Quoting sisse
..Brexit is an actual IN or OUT referendum. An OUT will have unforeseeable consequences in the short, mid and long term.
As you know markets don't care about politics but CARE and HATE A LOT uncertainty. Thus, as traders we must adapt and trade accordingly....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,382
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:41am Mar 1, 2016 11:41am
Quoting chester123
{quote} .... in unlocks the lvl to be broken mid term via the force on interest rates differential? P.S.: u have one more follower on twitter!! nice activity there
thx for pointing that out !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,383
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:41am Mar 1, 2016 11:41am
Lots of noise from the OIL front with a real pcc deal in the supply side triggering Imminent break up alerts. All eyes on 34.7x for this week. Lots of hard stop on the highs. A break will trigger a sharp momentum leg +10/15% non stop ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,384
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:44am Mar 1, 2016 11:44am
Latest test of .0833 and didn't break so exited at .0840 (+25).....just scalping today...looking to SHORT again at .087X one last time to see if we can break it today. I was surprised we didn't break thru with USD/JPY breaking thru 4hr TF Resistance at 114.XX

I am hoping to get a better position later this week before NFP. If not, will have to decide how to play it.
  • #139,385
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:48am Mar 1, 2016 11:48am
Quoting IMARICH1
Latest test of .0833 and didn't break so exited at .0840 (+25).....just scalping today...looking to SHORT again at .087X one last time to see if we can break it today. I was surprised we didn't break thru with USD/JPY breaking thru 4hr TF Resistance at 114.XX I am hoping to get a better position later this week before NFP. If not, will have to decide how to play it.

081x for the break , 088x for nfp play , 094x for intermediate stops ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #139,386
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:18pm Mar 1, 2016 12:18pm
...and that was pretty much it for the day.

Politics and US elections for the first time this year entering into the picture from the closing session with Super Tuesday.

For today, markets only looking on the side to clear the playing field. Clinton and Trump winning big (today and in the following week) will trigger the usual short-lived certainty play until the real deal starts later in the summer. Expecting a soft risk on moves especially after NFP and CB's plays have passed.

However, in my opinion Trump winning the primaries will bring a lot of uncertainty later on the real campaign if he get stuck with nearly 'third world populist/nationalistic' politics and zero clear policies as markets usually don't like election noise and political BS over clear economic policies (whatever the political side is coming from) ...

Tracking tangentially today results more out of interest than market impact.

As usual in US elections ...GL for the rest of us who don't have a saying in this but always get affected when Americans make a bad [or a good] choice...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,387
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:07pm Mar 1, 2016 2:07pm
Quoting sisse
....Clinton and Trump winning big (today and in the following week) will trigger the usual short-lived certainty play until the real deal starts later in the summer. Expecting a soft risk on moves especially after NFP and CB's plays have passed. However, in my opinion Trump winning the primaries will bring a lot of uncertainty later on the real campaign if he get stuck with nearly 'third world populist/nationalistic' politics and zero clear policies as markets usually don't like election noise and political BS over clear economic policies
Trump will likely clean up on Super Tuesday. Very interesting to see how that plays out as the GOP establishment may reject him and force him out into an independent bid - in which case the GOP has no chance in November and is possibly damaged for years to come. If the GOP rallies behind Trump and we see a real Trump vs. Hillary race, I'd have to bet he will be crushed in November. If Wall Street calls it the same we will see US equities rally to last Summer's highs and beyond. A dovish Fed and rising oil will make that possible before the end of Q2, Brexit be damned....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,388
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:13pm Mar 1, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting sisse
...As usual in US elections ...GL for the rest of us who don't have a saying in this but always get affected when Americans make a bad [or a good] choice... sisse
Have to admit, I laughed at this. So damn true, and so sorry for ya. hahaha- really I am. It's comical the power the US not only holds, but is able to effect on the entire world..

It's no wonder we aren't very popular
  • #139,389
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:13pm Mar 1, 2016 2:13pm
sisse,

Any thoughts to chester123 and I's post on GU? Looking to position around .42XX but not sure it will get there; but, a more reasonable retrace would be around .403X area to position for the ride to .21XX? Our comments is that this would be better R:R but GBP has been a difficult currency for me to trade as you can see the EU is tuff enough. Didn't know if read our comments and could give us some input when you have some time. Thanks

US EQUITIES approaching that 1980 area (currently at 1975) and OIL found support at 34.14 and approaching an attempt at the HIGHS or sisse's # of 34.7X.

Looking for EU to have a NY close under .0860/50 today as did London for the Roll.
  • #139,390
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:16pm Mar 1, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Trump will likely clean up on Super Tuesday. Very interesting to see how that plays out as the GOP establishment may reject him and force him out into an independent bid - in which case the GOP has no chance in November and is possibly damaged for years to come. If the GOP rallies behind Trump and we see a real Trump vs. Hillary race, I'd have to bet he will be crushed in November. If Wall Street calls it the same we will see US equities rally to last Summer's highs and beyond. A dovish Fed and rising oil will make that possible before the...
I'm watching Bernie. He's resonated with me recently, which I didn't expect. I suspect it's the same for many my age....

I know the black community is rallying behind him or Hillary....with an edge on Bernie.
  • #139,391
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:20pm Mar 1, 2016 2:20pm
I would also absolutely LOVE for Hillary to win it, then get put in the slammer by the FBI. Hopefully that could jump start the debate on just how OBVIOUSLY broken our election system is. Tiny chance I know- but oh man I'd watch the world burn just to have front row seats.
  • #139,392
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:53pm Mar 1, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we see a real Trump vs. Hillary race, I'd have to bet he will be crushed in November. If Wall Street calls it the same we will see US equities rally to last Summer's highs and beyond. A dovish Fed and rising oil will make that possible before the...
Think so? It takes just one (Incredulous) look at the competition to see the establishment candidate is on the wrong side of history this cycle. Sanders is almost a protest vote and when he falls by the wayside those votes could be heading to someone equally un-establishment... Think it will be close in the end not to mention ugly as hell.
__________________________________________________________________________________

An equity rally that feels like a breath of fresh air almost for the first time this year. Momentum off the February open on S&P and DAX weekly open 9/2016 after the rejection as equities catch up a bit with oil which is at its 2015 low. US numbers consistently solid and even surprising to the upside in unlikely sectors played a big part in supporting equities, more-so than any CB maneuvering in my book. China looks like the only immediate spoiler on the risk/timing side before the uncertainty later in the year.
  • #139,393
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:05pm Mar 1, 2016 4:05pm
OIL couldn't break up but it's closing very bullish in imminent break up conditions. US equities took the highs and betting on a strong NFP while Euro in a very choppy day as expected and waiting for a push before going any further....

We are aligning for a major move in OIL with the rest of the board getting ready for employment numbers before the FED...

Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Any thoughts to chester123 and I's post on GU? ...
There were plenty of opps to ride the GU leg(s). 1.481x a couple of time and especially 1.437x gave plenty of time to jump on board (check some of the back post for ref). Move is gone for a mid and short term entry....you missed this train. Although you can blindly entry around the current area (1.399x), there is nowhere decent r:r wise at these levels and in the current circumstances so your stops will be hanging on air with lots of risk so....

If you want to play it for the rest of the year. Try to get in synch first. Your best bet will be to wait for a quick test 1.380.x to hold over the NFP/ECB to fade an extension 1.365x later with the FED for a retrace leg short term 1.413x with max ext 1.428x (assuming no changes in FA obviously) for the Brexit jitters play down after...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,394
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:12pm Mar 1, 2016 4:12pm
Weekly chart gives clear picture of price knocking at key resistance, showing potential for a major break higher.
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  • #139,395
  • Edited 5:09pm Mar 1, 2016 4:56pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I would also absolutely LOVE for Hillary to win it, then get put in the slammer by the FBI. Hopefully that could jump start the debate on just how OBVIOUSLY broken our election system is. Tiny chance I know- but oh man I'd watch the world burn just to have front row seats.
Have to say i think they are all out to screw us...but if i had to pick i lean towards bernie....i would love to see that scenario with clinton getting arrested!!! Take monsanto with her!
As far as EU...waiting for news flows to hopefully find short entries around .092x and .104x. Otherwise i am looking for longs around .075x. I am very much still learning and want to thank all involved here for participating. I read this thread everyday while i make glass and look forward to being more involved here. I sincerely thank you all
  • #139,396
  • Mar 2, 2016 3:23am Mar 2, 2016 3:23am
Bunds finally turning a bit, like to see it below 164

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #139,397
  • Edited 4:37am Mar 2, 2016 3:59am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting hathor
Viewer Discretion Is Advised. With my current higher time frame signals, the map is the following for me (until opposite direction signals arrives): {image} In case of falling back, the closer I can buy to point 'C' (might even under it...), the happier I will be: {image}
Update: Move to point D was developed quite nice.Than first daily, later weekly sell signal arrived at D.And we nearly headed back to the previous weekly (buy) signal.But because last monthly signal was buy (its level can be found somewhere in my previous posts), it will form a weekly buy signal soon. Current week is unconfirmed buy, and if this week will not, than next will be the turning week. (daily already arrived).So it has still room to the downside, but be careful Ursidae.Overall:Monthly -buy/Weekly -sell (yet unconfirmed buy)/Daily -buy.Ps: we are also very close to point C
Be water my friend.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #139,398
  • Mar 2, 2016 6:45am Mar 2, 2016 6:45am
Eyes on reports. Equities in a hurry in both sides of the Atlantic. Clean sweep in play in both Equities and Oil so watch-out for a short-circuit short term across the board if it pans out. Direct impact expected for the double ADP/NFP play with all eyes on Equities.

A flop today just put as in wide chop zone until NFP, anything else is continuation.

On the currency board, Dollar in the driver seat and it will move as collateral of the rest of the board. 98.6x for ref as it will unlock 99.3x and put the green back flirting to break up for the third time since March 2015 after the FED flop...

Not much to do here until data so same levels, same trades and same all...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,399
  • Mar 2, 2016 7:19am Mar 2, 2016 7:19am
Slightly better numbers than expected discounting the revision. Watch out floor in the Euro ...a tick below 1.083x for running soft stops with NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,400
  • Edited 8:34am Mar 2, 2016 7:36am | Edited 8:34am
sisse,

Thanks for your input on GBP. I figured I did miss the train. But, thought I could still play the SHORT, MID, LONG TERM LEGS since they are were aligning. It seems this currency might be a better play now. I know gator was looking for it to go UP more in the past when you were posting and since there were good arguments for both, I didn't jump on.

I will track this and try a play to position as you suggested. Thanks for the insight and help!

I am surprised the ADP numbers didn't push it down more or the EU for the NEWS flows (will wait for NY)
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