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  • #139,361
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:06pm Feb 29, 2016 3:06pm
Flat. Took profit at the .0878 area. S&P losing 1932 handle. Closed out EU due to NY not taking .0890 area. Lost .0900 handle in both sessions.

Roll Play sisse to the .081X area now during Asian session? gator was looking at .1012 before .084X most times. I was looking at .0806/.0790 before NFP play but thought we might test .0940 at least today. But, .0900 handle was not taken back. Just my thoughts.............
  • #139,362
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:42pm Feb 29, 2016 3:42pm
...strange coincidence or maybe not in FF ...key close and prolly the most important for the next few months in the currency board in play and mostly crickets in the boards....

In any case, Euro is going to hold very strong 1.097x for the close. We have a very bearish M close one more time (as expected on outlook strong sell). Bulls are hanging by a thread and a test 1.081x will leave them naked for the rest of the Q.

For the first time since the consolidation started exactly 1 year ago with the FED flop on rates the mid term momentum map has finally been cleared. Euro losing the 1.07xx handle will unlock sharp non stop momentum to the 2015 lows and below. It wont come back to pick up the crumbs and laggers if triggerred...

TA wise after today's M close , the consolidation range looks ready to blow. We wont hold much longer beyond the next M candle. Bulls need a mega FA hand from the FED, ECB or China collapsing (risk off) to avoid breakdown till June and even then a potential Brexit will push up Dollar on risk while Euro (& CABLE) will get hammered on Europe crumbling in uncertainty ....

On the short term, as widely expected all day long, Euro fighting v. hard to hold 1.088x ....here tracking the roll today in currencies....


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,363
  • Feb 29, 2016 3:58pm Feb 29, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...indeed. Flawless day in the S&P top to bottom and for those trading/planning to trade the swing the traditional: Choose your poison time for the close .... sisse
The bears did just enough to leave question marks just below the Feb open but a strong rejection candle covering the 2015 low and 1912 swing low close.

Very weak inflation numbers failed to ignite DAX via QE though and equities (despite oil) generally looking anemic as China flirts with the lows again.

Potentially rough externalities coming into play for later this year and we've already been off to such a shaky start. Going to be really interesting following Brexit and the US elections later on.
  • #139,364
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:04pm Feb 29, 2016 4:04pm
...and we rolled . A rather bearish daily close unlocking a further short term extension to 1.073x with a hand of NFP. Euro in a hurry to kill the move before ECB (sell the rumour buy the news....).

For strictly technical reasons changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell till employment numbers.

Not much to do here with this close so same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,365
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:29pm Feb 29, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} The bears did just enough to leave question marks just below the Feb open but a strong rejection candle covering the 2015 low and 1912 swing low close. Very weak inflation numbers failed to ignite DAX via QE though and equities (despite oil) generally looking anemic as China flirts with the lows again. Potentially rough externalities coming into play for later this year and we've already been off to such a shaky start. Going to be really interesting following Brexit and the US elections later on.
Neither the increased possibility of more QE/monetary stimulus from the ECB, the announced 50bps cut to the RRR by PBoC or the solid performance of crude could lift equities. A bearish close on SPX - same as Friday's session. As you say, Chinese equities are on the edge.
  • #139,366
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:54am Mar 1, 2016 3:54am
Very soft numbers from China showing hard landing is far from over. A bunch of mediocre numbers from the EuroZone and the UK manufacturing catching up with the rest of the world. Oil has its 'minutes' counted on the demand side and only noise from the OPEC/Russia will keep it afloat...

Quoting gammase1
{quote} Neither the increased possibility of more QE/monetary stimulus from the ECB, the announced 50bps cut to the RRR by PBoC or the solid performance of crude could lift equities. A bearish close on SPX - same as Friday's session. As you say, Chinese equities are on the edge.
Agree.

Very dark clouds in the horizon. However, I wouldn't override QE/CBs just yet [currently in play] as US numbers are still very solid and a small push from CBs will trigger an extended pullback leg that nobody would want to miss (prolly the last consistent rally of the year).

The ebb and flow until Jun/Jul will be set by CBs bar China collapsing before. If ECB pull the trigger this month (doubtful) and US numbers hold we have a farewell rally on the making before the risk play come in Q3/Q4 (Brexit and US elections) for a "sell in May and go away play". While a pussy ECB with a dovish FED will leave us in wide volatile ranges until the summer ....

I personally starting to think that CB (ECB/BOE/FED) will hold any bazooka for the risk plays given China jitters and the self-inflicted uncertainty from the Brexit in Europe ....For now eyes on NFP as last mover and shaker before the ECB/FED combo....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,367
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:21am Mar 1, 2016 4:21am
Quoting sisse
Very soft numbers from China showing hard landing is far from over. A bunch of mediocre numbers from the EuroZone and the UK manufacturing catching up with the rest of the world. Oil has its 'minutes' counted on the demand side and only noise from the OPEC/Russia will keep it afloat... {quote} Agree. Very dark clouds in the horizon. However, I wouldn't override QE/CBs just yet [currently in play] as US numbers are still very solid and a small push from CBs will trigger an extended pullback leg that nobody would want to miss (prolly the last consistent...
Actually this is interesting: do you think that there are bigger odds ECB doing nothing than going all in?

The argument u use is pretty strong: there is much more problems ahead (brexit, china) and the effect of further easing can be gone in a few days (like last easing in Japan) + there is not much space to ease anyway so It may be strategic to wait for some risk-off situation where the easing can really have big impact and ECB does not stay with empty hands.

But on the other hand: the recent E/U short term leg: I would say its composed of 3 components:

1. depricing of the risk-off we had shooting to 1,136x.
2. pricing in a slight expectation of a interest rates rise in US - as the macro trend still holds and pushes back the headline recession talk + inflation coming.
3. pricing in of an ECB move in March.

From these 3 I would say that the ECB action could be like 70-75% of this pretty strong swing - we did not even get any short term retrace as the macro numbers kept printing and exagerrating the leg. And so I completely agreed that if ECB moves = it can pan out as "sell the rumour, buy the news".

And so if ECB does not move we could see something like after DEC 2015 meeting - very strong retrace; we may see it if they move as the "buy the news effect" but much smaller retrace.

So do you think ECB would go for this given the strong deflationary print in CPI - guess its a question whether they are in "crisis-expecting mode" or nor - but waiting for Q2/Q3 could risk much much further fall into deflation - and they are scared of it like hell as they all think that once you get in u doomed
  • #139,368
  • Mar 1, 2016 4:45am Mar 1, 2016 4:45am
The consensus in the market is for the ECB next week to definitely cut their key deposit rate by at least 10bps. It is more of a mixed picture on whether there will be an increase in the amount of assets purchased under its QE program.

There still exists a big disconnect - albeit one that has narrowed slightly in recent weeks - between the Fed's dot plot chart and the path the market expects the Fed to take regarding future interest rate increases. Only a couple of weeks ago, Fed Funds futures were pricing in no interest rate increases in 2016, but this has since changed to an above 50% chance of one further increase this year.

If the economic data from the US continues to be reasonably solid in the face of the prevailing gloom - particularly the hourly earnings and the NFP print, and commodities continue to look solid, then a repricing in Fed Fund futures to an outlook more closely aligned with the Fed's could be extremely supportive for big gains in the dollar against the euro and sterling. My guess is that the Fed will move twice in 2016, with an increase of 25bps in June and December.
  • #139,369
  • Edited 5:07am Mar 1, 2016 4:51am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Actually this is interesting: do you think that there are bigger odds ECB doing nothing than going all in?..
Yes. ECB is weighting between risk and deflation. Deflation is the mandate, however, China derailing could trigger major shakeouts worldwide and Brexit uncertainty could threat the existence of the whole EU and EZ itself...

Quote
... its composed of 3 components: 1. depriving of the risk-off ....h. From these 3 I would say that the ECB action could be like 70-75% ...

Sure but don't forget we are not 'interested' in IF but WHEN. The odds of ECB action are +90% in my view...the odds of ECB action next week is a whole different issue ..... basically is about timing of the ECB as both deflation is real & here and the risk plays are already on the table (China, Brexit)

Quote
And so I completely agreed that if ECB moves = it can pan out as "sell the rumour, buy the news". ...

That's the beauty of preempting a move. Bastards have mastered taming and squeezing every penny out CB QE since 2008. We have seen it every single time with FED, ECB, BOE and BOJ QE.

Basically preempt buying any QE announcement while the main news headlines flood us with risk and doom scenarios and the average Joe investor and soft money run for cover.

On the day of the announcement if flop just sell the news and rinse & repeat until is confirmed. If confirmed, just hold and ride the pig while the involved currency (call it dollar,euro,yen,sterling, etc) receive the full blown .... when bastards are one step ahead of CBs policies, you just squeeze expectations until they are confirm ...is a win win in any outcome ....QE It has been literally a free ATM for those who ride the pig on time.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,370
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:20am Mar 1, 2016 5:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes. ECB is weighting between risk and deflation. Deflation is the mandate, however, China derailing could trigger major shakeouts worldwide and Brexit uncertainty could threat the existence of the whole EU and EZ itself... {quote} Sure but don't forget we are not 'interested' in IF but WHEN. The odds of ECB action are +90% in my view...the odds of ECB action next week is a whole different issue ..... basically is about timing of the ECB as both deflation is real & here and the risk plays are already on the table (China, Brexit) {quote}...
lol, so basically markets are jumping through expectations on the CBs heads until they get what they want and the same it can be this time with ECB.

in any case well see - if ECB holds I bet its gonna be messy in E/U.

There are 3 macro/monetary moments - NFP, ECB, FED - I would prefer a combination which sends us up short term (e.g. ECB holding) to load mid term cuz if there is strong combination of strong NFP + big action from ECB (-(-IR) + QE) + neutral/hawkish FED = we could get what u call "clean sweep on weeklies" (ehm, an I right??) and I dont like those!!!

However, I think that combination is pretty much unlikely - NFP cannot do it by itself as the trend is super strong already (= na "game changer" to break 1,07x)+ ECB is most likely gonna keep some of the powder hidden as we discussed (no action/small expected action sends us up) + FED is most likely gonna stay with its diplomatic language ==== so the biggest probability is for the short term pull back.

Actually I think FED could be the big suprise in the house - on the hawkish side due to inflation - but still not doing the clean sweep on weeklies by itself without the combination of all 3!
  • #139,371
  • Mar 1, 2016 5:30am Mar 1, 2016 5:30am
Quoting chester123
{quote} lol, so basically markets are jumping through expectations on the CBs heads until they get what they want and the same it can be this time with ECB. in any case well see - if ECB holds I bet its gonna be messy in E/U. There are 3 macro/monetary moments - NFP, ECB, FED - I would prefer a combination which sends us up short term (e.g. ECB holding) to load mid term cuz if there is strong combination of strong NFP + big action from ECB (-(-IR) + QE) + neutral/hawkish FED = we could get what u call "clean sweep on weeklies" (ehm, an I right??)...
Marginal rate cut will be enough to unlock rate differentials support 1.073x. Thereafter, a strong NFP can have a saying on the dollar side on how shallow or deep will be the pullback in Euro.

A super strong NFP will pretty much kill extreme dovish FED voices for the foreseeable future, leaving any wind to push through the floor in the Euro..any other combination is up we go for a wide but choppy range for the rest of the Q....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,372
  • Edited 6:01am Mar 1, 2016 5:41am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Marginal rate cut will be enough to unlock rate differentials support 1.073x. Thereafter, a strong NFP can have a saying on the dollar side on how shallow or deep will be the pullback in Euro. A super strong NFP will pretty much kill extreme dovish FED voices for the foreseeable future, leaving any wind to push through the floor in the Euro..any other combination is up we go for a wide but choppy range for the rest of the Q.... sisse
Its very complex with these 3 events - but I understand and agree.

Just to clarify:

NFP is before ECB =) but the NFP print is gonna have the saying through determining the FED dovish/hawkish position after ECB, right? Thus determining the structure of potentional short term leg after ECB.

Does the "sell the rumour, buy the fact" applies usually only to QE or also to rates? Because when you say it unlocks the rate differentials support 1,073 = it does NOT necesarilly mean we get there in short term flows post-ECB reaction to cut, right? it means in unlocks the lvl to be broken mid term via the force on interest rates differential?

P.S.: u have one more follower on twitter!! nice activity there
  • #139,373
  • Edited 8:00am Mar 1, 2016 6:43am | Edited 8:00am
For anyone in this thread: (maybe Imarich could comment as mentioned getting into G/U)

Im looking for some technical setup to enter/join into short/mid term leg down (as it seems - from sisse posts - it has some big potential!!) - its kind of hard as its already in progress and the tred is very strong - so Im looking for a bounce to sell into.

If we look at the recent short term leg down from 1,46x to 1,38x - its bouncing this month brom the low on 1,38x. First short term resistence (limit of the bounce) is 1,403x = 23,6 FIB of short term down, previous bounce top, 200 EMA on H1.

Basically I do not see any reason for it to go higer than that as the G/U forces are strong short/mid/long term = on GBP side:

macro: soft trend
BoE: hawkish talk out of question
risk: brexit

Only upside in G/U can come from US and we have only US macro numbers coming this week, which are expected to follow US strong macro trend. So the general short term strong sell should prevail and not allow any short term leg up/correnction.

The question is whether this 1,403x lvl is the right one to sell into on weakness as it gets there (today/tomorrow). So far im in. Any comments welcomed

P.S.: chart 2 shows further technical short term resistences. But as I say I dont see much reason to go there.
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  • #139,374
  • Edited 8:18am Mar 1, 2016 8:00am | Edited 8:18am
chester123,

Great comments and analysis to think about and get a better clarification on the CB, ECB, NFP and FED from sisse! Good discussion!

On the GBP trade, I am leaning more towards trading this currency more than EU to get more reward and less risk. However, I am looking at the same area as you for a SHORT position. But, I am always shy of taking a trade with GBP as if that is not the spot, then, it could easily retrace further UP. I am watching and trying to sort thru some levels on Bigger TF.

I agree with your level for a retrace at .403X; but, I would be more comfortable with a retrace to .45XX ( doubt it will get there) as we may retrace only to .4223 if that even.....it appears it found support at .3835. .4223 would be the area I would really be more focused on. I can see .403X; but, as my luck stands, it would go higher.

On the EU----I entered into a position at .0885 (Short) for a play to .0811-.0806 with extension to .073X. I am thinking we range from .0890 to .0848 to .0806 until NFP. I have played the range 2x already to .085X.

I was looking at NFP to drive us to .0730 for a test or sending us thru the Floor of the .700 handle. Maybe .073X in play before NFP but not how I am looking at it at the moment due to lack of NEWS. If NFP misses; then, we could be back to test .097X level. This is my MAP; this is my design.....

EDIT: I believe gator has a number of .1012 before .0846 but I don't see it. However, I am not doubting just because I can't. I don't understand why PA would go UP that far unless something in the Markets push it there before NFP.
  • #139,375
  • Edited 8:44am Mar 1, 2016 8:20am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, Great comments and analysis to think about and get a better clarification on the CB, ECB, NFP and FED from sisse! Good discussion! On the GBP trade, I am leaning more towards trading this currency more than EU to get more reward and less risk. However, I am looking at the same area as you for a SHORT position. But, I am always shy of taking a trade with GBP as if that is not the spot, then, it could easily retrace further UP. I am watching and trying to sort thru some levels on Bigger TF. I agree with your level for a retrace at .403X;...
yes, the H1 chart I posted is very low TF. The levels are much more nicely visible on D1 (see chart). From down side: first lvl for the bounce, second lvl for retrace and mid of the short term swing down for extension of the short term retrace. As u say 1,45xx is very overstreched - locked for me. 1,42x possible - close to my mid of the short term swing down.

However, I think that very short term leg up can evolve only in case of a NFP flop. Pre-NFP I doubt we can crawl any further than 1,403x as the short term outlook is still strong sell - there would have to be somehting to change it - would even say the risks are on the downside pre-NFP. But really.... its pain to decide when to enter

P.S.: on E/U - nice map. I tried to catch the end of the short term swing down for reverso but I was wrong so great you rode some part of it. I rode the beginning. For now just watching and waiting - not planning to trade pre-NFP/ECB/FED - only in case of some huge suprise because I Still think we gonna get through it with some sort of short term retrace to load mid term - that monthly close is monster (= if u look into E/U history these wicks are very rare - OCT 1998 followed by a huge declice and AUG 2015 but that was china induced risk-off) so the mid term seems cooked pretty much - any short term retrace would be blessing now just from trading point of view (R:R)
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  • #139,376
  • Mar 1, 2016 8:50am Mar 1, 2016 8:50am
chester123,

On the same page with you. I mirror your thinking on the GU. I just would prefer price to go to .42XX for a bigger position.

On the EU I cleared at .0851. Looking for a bounce........or may build support here per gator's .0848 level. I still believe we could break thru here today. It may consolidate for a little bit....just would rather take profit and watch if PA wants to take that level. NY playing now and want to see what direction they decide to go in in next 10 min......

if .0846 breeched to .081X/.0806.....
  • #139,377
  • Mar 1, 2016 9:05am Mar 1, 2016 9:05am
Quoting IMARICH1
chester123, On the same page with you. I mirror your thinking on the GU. I just would prefer price to go to .42XX for a bigger position. On the EU I cleared at .0851. Looking for a bounce........or may build support here per gator's .0848 level. I still believe we could break thru here today. It may consolidate for a little bit....just would rather take profit and watch if PA wants to take that level. NY playing now and want to see what direction they decide to go in in next 10 min...... if .0846 breeched to .081X/.0806.....
And here we go to break it with the hand from manufacturing - interesting to see the soft stabilization in FEB numbers even though still in soft contraction; those are very sensitive data these days I bet as manufacturing is the only black sheep in the US economy family
  • #139,378
  • Edited 10:54am Mar 1, 2016 10:18am | Edited 10:54am
chester123,

I was away dealing with a client but saw my re-entry at .0865 (SHORT) did manage to break thru the .0848 area. Support at .0833 and it took a bounce.....back at it again.....looking to exit my SHORT at .081X---depending on how PA responds. Looking for .0833 to give in.

sisse told me awhile back to watch manufacturing numbers. US is doing better in this area in comparison with global economy but still soft. Have to watch this to make sure we have continued growth/FED play-Dov vs Hawkish
  • #139,379
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:03am Mar 1, 2016 11:03am
Europe going home with the best daily rally this year in European Equities. ECB action is a done deal.

"Buy the rumour, add on QE confirmation or sell the flop" pretty much completed from the European side. Only a ECB Bazooka next week will extend the range. Any further extension will depend on US equities starting with NFP this week and finishing with the FED later the month...

As expected the rest of the board (especially the FX board) subdue to Equities in the driver seat with very dull and slow intraday moves. Choppy Gold and Dollar soft continuation in OIL, Euro while YEN caught in between strong contradictory forces in the very short term...

Eyes on US Equities on the current highs as there is real money sitting on the top until NFP. Without break, no shake, and the board will enter in chop zone rather soon. For now not much to do with same levels, same trades, same all....

Quoting chester123
{quote} ... Just to clarify:
--> YES.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,380
  • Mar 1, 2016 11:05am Mar 1, 2016 11:05am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with the best rally this year in European Equities. ECB action is a done deal. "Buy the rumour, add on confirmation of QE or sell the flop" pretty much completed from the European side. Only a ECB Bazooka next week will extend the range. Any further extension will depend on US equities starting with NFP this week and finishing with the FED later the month... As expected the rest of the board (especially the FX board) subdue to Equities in the driver seat with very dull and slow legs. Choppy Gold and Dollar soft continuation in...
There is a quote I can't seem to find. A point in which you said the markets don't trade politics, the markets trade risk and expectations (paraphrasing badly). Really need to bookmark that- I see potential to post it every. single. day.

If you find it sometime, let me know. I've looked
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