AUD last chance mofu to the micro pip for 0.7605 and 0.7827 fyi
love buying/selling those
love buying/selling those
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The Really Useless Thread
- #138,501
- Jan 8, 2016 5:39pm Jan 8, 2016 5:39pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #138,502
- Jan 8, 2016 5:41pm Jan 8, 2016 5:41pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #138,503
- Jan 9, 2016 3:50am Jan 9, 2016 3:50am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
Viewer Discretion Is Advised.
With my current higher time frame signals, the map is the following for me (until opposite direction signals arrives):
In case of falling back, the closer I can buy to point 'C' (might even under it...), the happier I will be:
With my current higher time frame signals, the map is the following for me (until opposite direction signals arrives):
In case of falling back, the closer I can buy to point 'C' (might even under it...), the happier I will be:
f(z)=z2+c
- #138,504
- Edited Jan 10, 2016 5:09am Jan 9, 2016 5:30am | Edited Jan 10, 2016 5:09am
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
...and I will take that ...Clearing final short term swing in equites on the test 1917xx. In strictly technically sense there are a couple of points left to 1911.x but given the circumstances 'don't be a dick for a tick rule apply' and its worthless to hold over the weekend. Euro still with crumbs left ... but there is a extra 45 mins left in currencies ... sisse
P.S.: as fool suggested do u agree with this: the equities are pretty much "predestined" to make this mid term swing down no matter what? If china cracks more/oil capitulates =) they gonna go down. Even if this does not happen =) If macro numbers show slowdown in US economy - gonna go down due to the economy/global growth issues - if not we get a hike so they go down too. But what about if we get some goepolitical shock - e.g. iran/Saudi arabia war - the oil is gonna spike up so that should be positive for equities but they will be harmed by the risk-off. So it seems all the scenarios are alined against them.
- #138,506
- Jan 10, 2016 12:23pm Jan 10, 2016 12:23pm
Hello sisse, Ive been trying to put all the pieces together about global economy, I think I am starting to understand a little bit better money flows, but I am not sure if I am leaving something out of equation.
My assumptions on Money Flows:
China crisis:
As we can see Retails has lead S&P 500 for the last bull market. We can see it clearer with a relative performance chart:
As we can see it is outperforming extremely S&P500, which talks a lot about the wealth of US economy.
Lets see the same index performance in the years preceding 2007 market top.
Absolute performance:
We can see the two index divergence between on 2007 both index diverged when S&P500 made a new high while Retail didnt.
Lets see relative performance:
Retail stocks started to underperform S&P months before the market top developed, giving early signals. This is not the same situation today.
We can see that from this standpoint the US economy is much stronger than in 2007 and it can make it through the China crisis without long term implications.
If market goes through the crisis and US doesnt change its monetary policy then we can expect equities to make new highs when crisis fear disappears, and with so low Oil prices a great bull market for the next years will be coming.
Generally, strong dollar is good for equities. If emerging markets have trouble for getting up after this crisis, commodities will stay low for a while. So a double boost for equities may be forming.
As Euro economy turns stronger and recovers from the crisis, EUR will recover some lost ground against USD and world economy risk will disappear, and the next great trends will come in EUR stocks.
As emerging markets fix their economies, commodities will stay in a range for years while their economies dont turn up.
What does this mean for me as a trader?
I have to expect the downtrend in EURUSD to continue while we dont see more optimistic news coming from euro countries. When eurozone recovery becomes clear, this should break the euro downtrend.
I have to expect a downtrend in commodities currencies, the duration will depend a lot on Yuan devaluation. When the downtrend breaks, we should expect a ranging market for a while until China and emerging countries recovers, because dominant economies like USD and EUR will be at full steam, ruling the markets for a while.
If inflation doesn't pick up, this could mead a change in the US monetary policy, wich could change all of the previous forecast.
And this is all. Maybe Ive underestimate some market forces, but well, this is my view and economy is not an exact nor easy science after all.
Thank you so much.
troneras.
My assumptions on Money Flows:
China crisis:
- China equities collapse because China is forced to devaluate Yuan for paying debt:
- Currencies linked to Chinese economy fall. AUD, NZD
- Money escaping equities moves to safer assets (Bonds, Gold, USD)
- Chinese Bonds is not a safe option so money buys Bonds overseas, on the most stable economies, EUR and USA
- As a result of this, EUR and USD appreciates
- China seems to buy more EUR than USD bonds as EURUSD trends favorably to EUR
- China sells some of their offshore wealth
- Rallies on EUR and USD
Falling Oil price:
- Commodities linked currencies (CAD, NOK, MXN, RUB, BRL) fall.
- Falling oil prices are good for equities, but if Oil fells too much, too quick, can hurt inflation and economy. As a result, money flows out of equities into safer assets like money and bonds during the storm.
This is what money does when risk in global markets is detected. However, this happens every now and then and doesnt drives directly into a bear market or a crash in equities. It depends a lot on the capacity of US economy to receive hits.
State of US Economy
One of the best indicators of US Economy is the Retail Index. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US Economy.
Absolute performance of S&P Retail index during the last 3 years. As we can see Retails has lead S&P 500 for the last bull market. We can see it clearer with a relative performance chart:
As we can see it is outperforming extremely S&P500, which talks a lot about the wealth of US economy.
Lets see the same index performance in the years preceding 2007 market top.
Absolute performance:
We can see the two index divergence between on 2007 both index diverged when S&P500 made a new high while Retail didnt.
Lets see relative performance:
Retail stocks started to underperform S&P months before the market top developed, giving early signals. This is not the same situation today.
We can see that from this standpoint the US economy is much stronger than in 2007 and it can make it through the China crisis without long term implications.
If market goes through the crisis and US doesnt change its monetary policy then we can expect equities to make new highs when crisis fear disappears, and with so low Oil prices a great bull market for the next years will be coming.
Generally, strong dollar is good for equities. If emerging markets have trouble for getting up after this crisis, commodities will stay low for a while. So a double boost for equities may be forming.
As Euro economy turns stronger and recovers from the crisis, EUR will recover some lost ground against USD and world economy risk will disappear, and the next great trends will come in EUR stocks.
As emerging markets fix their economies, commodities will stay in a range for years while their economies dont turn up.
What does this mean for me as a trader?
I have to expect the downtrend in EURUSD to continue while we dont see more optimistic news coming from euro countries. When eurozone recovery becomes clear, this should break the euro downtrend.
I have to expect a downtrend in commodities currencies, the duration will depend a lot on Yuan devaluation. When the downtrend breaks, we should expect a ranging market for a while until China and emerging countries recovers, because dominant economies like USD and EUR will be at full steam, ruling the markets for a while.
If inflation doesn't pick up, this could mead a change in the US monetary policy, wich could change all of the previous forecast.
And this is all. Maybe Ive underestimate some market forces, but well, this is my view and economy is not an exact nor easy science after all.
Thank you so much.
troneras.
Live and Keep Calm
- #138,507
- Edited 4:03pm Jan 10, 2016 2:17pm | Edited 4:03pm
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
Great job troneras! Interesting to see the SP500 compared to retail index. However, Im not that good to evaluate the assumptions. Hope someone will 
A little bit (off topic) on E/U: I think you have perfect intuitive grasp of E/U pair in 2016/2017. And I bet it perfectly makes sense given the cyclical development of economies as eurozones economic uptrend is way overdue and shall be here very soon. However, I think the political risks are extreme here and from my political intuitive sense EU is just gonna go into stronger and stronger spasm (unless miracle happens), which is gonna suppress the economic growth - catalonia may secess from spain, britain may leave EU (very probable), hungary/slovakia is completely on anti-EU trajectory, poland (very stong force) has just had its constitutional coup and soon be faced with stop of eu-membership, migrant crisis (discussion just getting new juice with the attacked women on silvestr). These are just the most obvious examples but there is generall shift in the european discussion. The reason: there are problems, which the EU institutions are not designed to solve (for example some of them need quick solution - and yes EU institutions are able to solve problem but of different kind) and do not provide a platform, which could generate consensus on EU lvl, which ultimately leads to indentification with/re-discovery of "national interests" and most importantly the idea of integration loses the core, which is solidarity and cooperation. So lets just wait for a few rounds of national elections and the EU-patient may be very soon on a verge of death. And we have not mentioned the problem of euro/optimum currency area/absece of common fiscal policy (absence of surplus re-distribution mechanism between "north" and south" = this is something, which is gonna drag EU down until the elites federalize it (not probable in this situation) or the anti-EU parties crash it because I believe that the europeans everyday pay huge price for the state of the system as it is right now. Greeks are the ones who have so far paid the most.
Well, all that is just guessing - no conspiration theory, just some critical realism - maybe over-critical. Well see. But as it usually happens with big historical moments: the changes come slowly and unrecongized but once it comes: the EU-integration project can go to fire (hopefully not ashes) very very quickly and the implications for euro are quite clear.
A little bit (off topic) on E/U: I think you have perfect intuitive grasp of E/U pair in 2016/2017. And I bet it perfectly makes sense given the cyclical development of economies as eurozones economic uptrend is way overdue and shall be here very soon. However, I think the political risks are extreme here and from my political intuitive sense EU is just gonna go into stronger and stronger spasm (unless miracle happens), which is gonna suppress the economic growth - catalonia may secess from spain, britain may leave EU (very probable), hungary/slovakia is completely on anti-EU trajectory, poland (very stong force) has just had its constitutional coup and soon be faced with stop of eu-membership, migrant crisis (discussion just getting new juice with the attacked women on silvestr). These are just the most obvious examples but there is generall shift in the european discussion. The reason: there are problems, which the EU institutions are not designed to solve (for example some of them need quick solution - and yes EU institutions are able to solve problem but of different kind) and do not provide a platform, which could generate consensus on EU lvl, which ultimately leads to indentification with/re-discovery of "national interests" and most importantly the idea of integration loses the core, which is solidarity and cooperation. So lets just wait for a few rounds of national elections and the EU-patient may be very soon on a verge of death. And we have not mentioned the problem of euro/optimum currency area/absece of common fiscal policy (absence of surplus re-distribution mechanism between "north" and south" = this is something, which is gonna drag EU down until the elites federalize it (not probable in this situation) or the anti-EU parties crash it because I believe that the europeans everyday pay huge price for the state of the system as it is right now. Greeks are the ones who have so far paid the most.
Well, all that is just guessing - no conspiration theory, just some critical realism - maybe over-critical. Well see. But as it usually happens with big historical moments: the changes come slowly and unrecongized but once it comes: the EU-integration project can go to fire (hopefully not ashes) very very quickly and the implications for euro are quite clear.
- #138,508
- Edited 6:09pm Jan 10, 2016 4:06pm | Edited 6:09pm
- Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
{quote} On my map I have 188x as this month low. Followed by 188x -> 198x/201x -> 178x till april. That will be a soft landing for ES before switching from normalization mode to buy and hold mode. But friday session ended with a smell of capitulation on equities : that's often how panic/risk leg ends so we may get some bounce from there. {image}
Hmm, just jumped into platform to see how sydney, with tokyo on holiday, is boring! Not the calmest start of the week. Bet china has some violent stuff for us - with circuit breakers off we finally gonna see if governmental agencies rule the market
- #138,509
- Edited 4:11am Jan 11, 2016 2:36am | Edited 4:11am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #138,510
- Edited 4:24am Jan 11, 2016 3:30am | Edited 4:24am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: #welcomebackGator | 2,418 Posts
- #138,511
- Jan 11, 2016 6:31am Jan 11, 2016 6:31am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #138,512
- Jan 11, 2016 6:32am Jan 11, 2016 6:32am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #138,513
- Edited 8:37am Jan 11, 2016 8:10am | Edited 8:37am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,718 Posts
- #138,514
- Jan 11, 2016 9:01am Jan 11, 2016 9:01am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: #welcomebackGator | 2,418 Posts
- #138,516
- Jan 11, 2016 9:31am Jan 11, 2016 9:31am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: #welcomebackGator | 2,418 Posts
- #138,517
- Jan 11, 2016 9:49am Jan 11, 2016 9:49am
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
{quote} They have at least 300 million women of child bearing age,
brb moving to china to do my part in kicking off the baby boom
- #138,520
- Jan 11, 2016 10:12am Jan 11, 2016 10:12am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: #welcomebackGator | 2,418 Posts
{quote} That's all I needed. brb moving to china to do my part in kicking off the baby boom