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Trading Made Simple

  • #66,341
  • Feb 29, 2016 1:08pm Feb 29, 2016 1:08pm
Quoting makron
Hi to all! A have a question about H4. Do you recommend open orders only in London session or we can do it in asian session? Todays night i skipped opportunity open in asian session and opened during early London and have loss {image}
Hi makron, I'm just starting to trade H4 as well, my take on it is to open a trade in any session as long as it meets my trading plan. Hope this helps.
  • #66,342
  • Feb 29, 2016 1:23pm Feb 29, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting makron
Hi to all! A have a question about H4. Do you recommend open orders only in London session or we can do it in asian session? Todays night i skipped opportunity open in asian session and opened during early London and have loss {image}
If a pair that is correlated to it's trading session and I have a perfect setup, I normally take the trade. On your chart, you got in on the 3rd candle. The entry rules still apply to candle #1 and #2. Hope this helps.
  • #66,343
  • Feb 29, 2016 4:50pm Feb 29, 2016 4:50pm
Hi , i've known about these forums a couple of years now. A week or two ago I started trading the TMS method .. so i finally decided to make an account here.

Emmanual, you really seem to know your stuff.

please have a look at the following image, am I doing everything right?

daily AUD/USD CHART
[i took this trade around 11pm gmt time sunday (the candle had opened at 10PM but spread was too high)]



brown horizontal line = resistance
yellow trendline = 5 MA shift 3
purprle trendline = 10 expotential applied to close, shift 0

sold when the candle closed below the yellow and purple trendlines, TDI had crossed down and was at a good angle. noted that i sold just after the bearish engulfing outside bar formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMSrightornotforums.png Size: 39 KB
  • #66,344
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:15pm Feb 29, 2016 5:15pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi LL, Simply use the ATR(52) on Weekly chart for the average weekly range for 52-weeks. It should be ~268pips. Usually, we target 60% of this weekly range. But in some weeks when market is narrow range, we may not get that. But 40% is sure thing in the past 2 weeks on H4. When market starts to trend and breaks out, then we look at 100% and even 120% of that range. This is provided we pick our 5-Method entries using APB#1 and #2. Attached chart below shows the swing highs and swing lows of the past 2 weeks with the swing range in shown in...

update to the above post:

AJ moves lower and yesterdays's high is now this week's high. Taking the average weekly range (52-weeks) of 268pips, we target this 100% of this range would be 78.50. But if we target 60% of this, our target would be 79.60. Keep in mind the two recent swing low to the left which we need to look at the market reaction to the previous 2 weeks low. Not to forget the RN in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ H4 swing range in pips 1 Mar update.png Size: 67 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,345
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:39pm Feb 29, 2016 5:39pm
Quoting kain775
Hi , i've known about these forums a couple of years now. A week or two ago I started trading the TMS method .. so i finally decided to make an account here. Emmanual, you really seem to know your stuff. please have a look at the following image, am I doing everything right? daily AUD/USD CHART [i took this trade around 11pm gmt time sunday (the candle had opened at 10PM but spread was too high)] brown horizontal line = resistance yellow trendline = 5 MA shift 3 purprle trendline = 10 expotential applied to close, shift 0 sold when the candle...

Hi kain,

WELCOME to this TMS thread. It takes a lot of realtime practice to become proficient.

You have a good trade taken. There is Price Action at Support & Resistance PASR and with TMS 5-Method entry .

There was consolidation at the BRN .7200 seen with the Wide Range Bar WRB. The price action attempted several times to break in the previous WSRB seen farther left but did not move higher. Feb month high has been set with that double tops last week. With a WRB and that huge beakout Bearish Engulfing Outside Bar to close last Friday, that is a good PASR setup.

Your initial Stop Loss at the last swing high which is above that WRB High is safe.
Your task now is to manage this trade. A 1R trade look good but we try manage for more multple R's.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Kain775 AUDUSD D trade.png Size: 158 KB



Trade Well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,346
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm
R and R-Multiple trade management

AUDUSD example.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUSUSD R and R-Multple management.png Size: 42 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,347
  • Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm Feb 29, 2016 5:52pm
Hi emma, would you mind discussing the reason why all the TDI crosses in the picture below (taken from your TMS-II notes) is not good entries?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 386 KB


I have been thinking about this since yesterday but still feel quite confused. I can see perhaps one reason is the market momentum, most of the previous candles changed color with TDI crosses are quite small or in consolidation

Another question, would you mind discussing how to determine the trading bias (bullish or bearish) for every week? I think it is crucial to trading successfully. ME/ME is only an entry technique, if one gets in the wrong side of the market it is difficult to succeed even with the ME/ME.

Thank you.
  • #66,348
  • Edited 6:31pm Feb 29, 2016 6:20pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting antonym
Hi emma, would you mind discussing the reason why all the TDI crosses in the picture below (taken from your TMS-II notes) is not good entries? {image} I have been thinking about this since yesterday but still feel quite confused. I can see perhaps one reason is the market momentum, most of the previous candles changed color with TDI crosses are quite small or in consolidation Another question, would you mind discussing how to determine the trading bias (bullish or bearish) for every week? I think it is crucial to trading successfully. ME/ME is only...

Hi,

it very simple actually and people add all sorts of stuff to TMS and make trading speculative rather than being technical.

the answer to that chart you posted is in Post#647.

<quote> Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term...<unquote>

if your trading chart timeframe is H4, then what is the chart timeframe you want to use for the Primary Trend? I look at the Weekly and then the Daily.

and making sure all 3 timeframes are align or in agreement.

when the market is not trending, it can either be sideways ranging in narrow range or in wide range. Do not trade narrow range sideways market type.
TMS is a trend trading methodology and it can also be traded in wide range sideways market type.

Look at EURUSD, start with the Monthly chart. What is the market type?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MN Week 09 1 Mar.png Size: 22 KB


Then look at the Weekly chart, it is trading within the high-low of that Monthly range of ~790pips.
If we follow the Weekly chart candles, we would be selling this week. This is the Bias for H4 trading this week.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD W1 Week 09 1 Mar.png Size: 27 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,349
  • Feb 29, 2016 6:37pm Feb 29, 2016 6:37pm
Quoting MaxZen
{quote} ​That is an excellent idea! I wish the same could be found for MT4...

like Big E did, he open Japanese candles charts along side his TMS trading charts. why did he look at J candles?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post4570374

but using Japanese candles has a warning from the man.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post4517204
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,350
  • Feb 29, 2016 7:35pm Feb 29, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, it very simple actually and people add all sorts of stuff to TMS and make trading speculative rather than being technical. the answer to that chart you posted is in Post#647. <quote> Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term...<unquote> if your trading chart timeframe is H4, then what is the chart timeframe you want to use for the Primary Trend? I look at the Weekly and then the Daily. and making sure all 3 timeframes are align or in agreement. when...
Hi emma,

Thanks for answering. Here's my attempt to answer using the post 647:

Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term..

Long term, weekly chart, we are in a downtrend since price broke the 0.9600 level in May 2013, the sell trade is on 2013.10.22, which is in fact a resistance level, plus a daily 200MA.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 63 KB


Short term, daily we are in an uptrend since price breaks the high around 0.9200 around Sept 10 2013. That's why we don't trade against the daily trend, so no sell trade until we met a longer term key resistance support level to turn the short term trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 73 KB


Please provide any feedback on my answer to the question. Am I correct?


On the second question, I think the market type is wide ranging? How should one distinguish between a wide and narrow ranging market? Like "wide" would be > 500 pips from range high to range low, and "narrow" would be otherwise?

I got a bit confused by the following:

If we follow the Weekly chart candles, we would be selling this week. This is the Bias for H4 trading this week.

So to be specific, the bias is down because the 2nd weekly candle (counting from the right) is bearish and closes below the low of the 4th candle, confirming it being a swing high?

What if it is a week ago, what would the bias be? i.e., erasing the first two candle in the weekly chart, there is an engulfing candle, so the bias is down? or perhaps one should have a neutral bias?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1456798833
  • #66,351
  • Feb 29, 2016 7:37pm Feb 29, 2016 7:37pm
EURAUD Mar 2016 Big Picture Planning

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD Big Picture Plan Mar 2016.png Size: 48 KB


Would be an interesting month for EURAUD position trading. Last month we saw market driven down to BRN 1.500 and consolidates for many days with that D1 WRB.
With March Cash Rate fixed at 2.0%, we may see some correction to 1.54 and 1.55 region inside that WRB range.
A breakout may see further fall lower mean we can see the targets regions - - 1.52 and 1.51 and further down to 1.48 and 1.46. That may take weeks should this happen.

Trade Well and Trade Safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #66,352
  • Feb 29, 2016 7:39pm Feb 29, 2016 7:39pm
Quoting antonym
Hi emma, would you mind discussing the reason why all the TDI crosses in the picture below (taken from your TMS-II notes) is not good entries? {image} I have been thinking about this since yesterday but still feel quite confused. I can see perhaps one reason is the market momentum, most of the previous candles changed color with TDI crosses are quite small or in consolidation Another question, would you mind discussing how to determine the trading bias (bullish or bearish) for every week? I think it is crucial to trading successfully. ME/ME is only...
I would also like to add that if you evaluate a signal, look at the last signal of that type. If the price is higher/lower than the price on the last signal, you are going countertrend and probably should not take that entry.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #66,353
  • Feb 29, 2016 8:17pm Feb 29, 2016 8:17pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I would also like to add that if you evaluate a signal, look at the last signal of that type. If the price is higher/lower than the price on the last signal, you are going countertrend and probably should not take that entry.
That's very insightful point. Thanks a lot. I have been thinking about what you said. This rule can be used to filter out bad trade for divergence type trading maybe? Oftentimes I see bearish divergence and I entered on a signal to sell, only then finding out that price retrace against me before finally giving another entry signal and move south.
  • #66,354
  • Feb 29, 2016 10:28pm Feb 29, 2016 10:28pm
Emm -

Thanks for your previous and updated posts for me. I am keeping them for study and application. But I do have another question about your charts on the upper chart timeframe bias. Could you expand or provide more examples? What I think I need are examples of when not to trade. Ideas that should give me huge stop signs instead of the golden opportunities that I seem to find on every chart. I am watching 14 currencies and am compiling weekly, daily, and 4hr biases on them to work on the 4hr trading time frame. Yet all 14 seem to be on my watchlist.... Yeah that's not right....thanks

LazyLobster
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx W2D2.docx   16 KB | 422 downloads
"IN CASH WE TRUST"
  • #66,355
  • Feb 29, 2016 10:28pm Feb 29, 2016 10:28pm
Quoting antonym
{quote} That's very insightful point. Thanks a lot. I have been thinking about what you said. This rule can be used to filter out bad trade for divergence type trading maybe? Oftentimes I see bearish divergence and I entered on a signal to sell, only then finding out that price retrace against me before finally giving another entry signal and move south.
As a general rule, you see bearish divergence in bull markets and bullish divergence in bear markets. If you see divergence, look for the chance to go with trend.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #66,356
  • Feb 29, 2016 11:23pm Feb 29, 2016 11:23pm
Lools like nice trades, isn't it?
AU buy: double bottom, IB break, MC break, off TL, TDI cross
AJ buy: off support line, IB break, MC break, TL break, TDI cross
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.01_AJ.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 03.01_AU.png Size: 57 KB
  • #66,357
  • Mar 1, 2016 12:07am Mar 1, 2016 12:07am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURAUD Mar 2016 Big Picture Planning {image} Would be an interesting month for EURAUD position trading. Last month we saw market driven down to BRN 1.500 and consolidates for many days with that D1 WRB. With March Cash Rate fixed at 2.0%, we may see some correction to 1.54 and 1.55 region inside that WRB range. A breakout may see further fall lower mean we can see the targets regions - - 1.52 and 1.51 and further down to 1.48 and 1.46. That may take weeks should this happen. Trade Well and Trade Safe.
I closed my basket last week. Let's see if we find a better opportunity to start anew. I'm wondering, let's say we get a correction in this WRB. What are the possible ways that will make you start a new basket. What are you looking at exactly?

I would expect that we can look for 4H Setups of the WRB high which would be PASR. Then start these trades with low risk and build them for D1 position? Or would you trade this as regular 4H trade and wait till the D1 shows a breakout from the WRB and then start a basket?

Best,
  • #66,358
  • Mar 1, 2016 1:49am Mar 1, 2016 1:49am
Easy 47 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 271 KB
Price is the leader of the market crowd!
  • #66,359
  • Mar 1, 2016 2:25am Mar 1, 2016 2:25am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} As a general rule, you see bearish divergence in bull markets and bullish divergence in bear markets. If you see divergence, look for the chance to go with trend.
If I may, can I paraphrase what you're saying: so you mean no countertrend trading and only use divergence signal, and the retrace that often comes after the divergence to place do with-trend type trading?
  • #66,360
  • Mar 1, 2016 3:56am Mar 1, 2016 3:56am
Quoting aidinkoloft
hi guys , Please where can i download ADR indicator ? (the best version for ME/ME) Thanks!

Hi,

there is no ADR indicator required for trading with ME/ME.
you simply use your platform standard ATR indicator and set that to the period you want to see and on that chart timeframe.

for example, if you want to see the 52-weeks ATR, just place the ATR indicator on your chart, set the period to 52 and change your chart to Weekly. Read off the value in the indicator window.

regards,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ATR example.png Size: 25 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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