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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #425,261
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:53am Feb 24, 2016 10:53am
Quoting ez0770
{quote} Good stats, keep up the good work
​
Thank you for your kind words - I wish you well in your trading too
  • #425,262
  • Feb 24, 2016 11:04am Feb 24, 2016 11:04am
Quoting suneth2
{quote} awesome results, do you follow price action or other strategy trade.
Thank you, I appreciate you taking time to observe and comment. I believe more transparency into traders' records should be provided on forums like these - the stats don't lie.

Mind, I'm sure there are easier ways to trade - For my sins I've always been biased to reversal trading and the method I deploy is a price action based method often referred to as 'mean reversion'.


Like you, I'm a bit of a price action scalper at heart - all the best
  • #425,263
  • Feb 24, 2016 11:31am Feb 24, 2016 11:31am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} Thank you, I appreciate you taking time to observe and comment. I believe more transparency into traders' records should be provided on forums like these - the stats don't lie. Mind, I'm sure there are easier ways to trade - For my sins I've always been biased to reversal trading and the method I deploy is a price action based method often referred to as 'mean reversion'. Like you, I'm a bit of a price action scalper at heart - all the best
Totally agree too - prefer to put my trades up live as i make em .. its a great learning curve
  • #425,264
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:19pm Feb 24, 2016 1:19pm
we are chasing our tail, until we catch the big move, thing is the dog gets a bite every now and again, you can make pips ,in any direction,
  • #425,265
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:23pm Feb 24, 2016 1:23pm
todays mail,,, check out morgan stanley ??


GBPUSD and EURGBP

GBPUSD
Bearish below 1.4155.

Societe Generale: We are likely to see further sterling weakness ahead of the [Brexit] vote itself, as the debate rages and uncertainty undermines confidence. Opinion polls moving decisively enough in either direction for clarity to emerge before June 23.
In the process, [] expect to see GBP/USD break 1.40 and EUR/GBP break 0.80 between now and then possibly both at the same time. On a Brexit [] look for GBP/USD to trade to 1.30, at least.

Morgan Stanley: We expect GBP to trade lower going into the referendum in June, our bear case for GBPUSD is 1.30 for year-end.

LCG: GBPUSD traded below 1.40 for the first time since March 2009 on the heel of mounting Brexit risks. The negative momentum gains traction, next technical levels to watch are 1.3935 and 1.3855. At this point, the RSI (31%) shows that Cable will soon hit the oversold region, any upside attempt is expected to remain capped at 1.4153 (Feb 23rd top) and 1.4260 (this weeks high).

Market price 1.3977
Bearish case: resistance at 1.4155, drop expected to 1.3935, then to 1.3855.
Bullish case: if 1.4155 surpassed, recovery to 1.4260.
  • #425,266
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:32pm Feb 24, 2016 1:32pm
possible fail to 3806 , if fail
  • #425,267
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:50pm Feb 24, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Remember you called for bearish cable last week, v.good call.The PA this morning has been some kind of compression, I.e. steady pushing to one direction, on my chart it is basically constraintment by LTF short MAs, normally that will lead to a spring up and erase the entire compression move, what happens next is to be determined by HTF PA though
Hi Darkforce,yes I get dizzy now looking at the 1hr, sometimes get very confused.
But might stay contained, need a break up for bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 23 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #425,268
  • Feb 24, 2016 1:52pm Feb 24, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ....Nice trades you got going there Sir. Ill-b-back, nice going....like usual....
Thank you Sir, sorry I left you with that stranger in the other bar.
got to go Sir, off to work. Starting back at Uni on Monday, so will be quiet for a while.
Have a drink for me Sir, will check in soon
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #425,269
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:06pm Feb 24, 2016 2:06pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 69 KB
mmmmm
  • #425,270
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:20pm Feb 24, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting elbert3
todays mail,,, check out morgan stanley ?? GBPUSD and EURGBP GBPUSD Bearish below 1.4155. Societe Generale: We are likely to see further sterling weakness ahead of the [Brexit] vote itself, as the debate rages and uncertainty undermines confidence. Opinion polls moving decisively enough in either direction for clarity to emerge before June 23. In the process, [] expect to see GBP/USD break 1.40 and EUR/GBP break 0.80 between now and then possibly both at the same time. On a Brexit [] look for GBP/USD to trade to 1.30, at least. Morgan Stanley: We...
Useful stuff, I still haven't see any sign of stopping on daily, maybe it will do what these banksters say
  • #425,271
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:23pm Feb 24, 2016 2:23pm
A break below 1.394 level will call for further short position with a target at 1.394. Since the pivot is at 1.4021, Buy positions will only be ideal upon a clear breakout above this pivot with our target at 1.4079.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #425,272
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:30pm Feb 24, 2016 2:30pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Useful stuff, I still haven't see any sign of stopping on daily, maybe it will do what these banksters say
Just play your own trade buddy the scope in that mail is big ,its like a weather forcast, got you pm, lol that was weeks ago lol.Davit was right usa is not as good as gb on the tec, its sellers selling gb short, and thats it, when we get the good news then get on board big main is 5678 ,
  • #425,273
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:51pm Feb 24, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting elbert3
possible fail to 3806 , if fail
Hey B,

I like 3830 if....But what the heck, posted a few larger too.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #425,274
  • Feb 24, 2016 2:59pm Feb 24, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey B, I like 3830 if....But what the heck, posted a few larger too.
Hey S . Pips here pips there pips evey f,,ing where lol. William shakspeare ,, i will find a pip in a seedless grape ???? Lol.
  • #425,275
  • Feb 24, 2016 3:14pm Feb 24, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Remember you called for bearish cable last week, v.good call.The PA this morning has been some kind of compression, I.e. steady pushing to one direction, on my chart it is basically constraintment by LTF short MAs, normally that will lead to a spring up and erase the entire compression move, what happens next is to be determined by HTF PA though
hi Darkforce, sorry thx very much for the compliment, was just in a rush this morning getting out the door.Have a great week
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #425,276
  • Feb 24, 2016 4:14pm Feb 24, 2016 4:14pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} hi Darkforce, sorry thx very much for the compliment, was just in a rush this morning getting out the door.Have a great week
  • #425,277
  • Feb 24, 2016 4:55pm Feb 24, 2016 4:55pm
Weekly Fed Watch – NO RATES HIKES in 2016 stands firm.

No major change since the last week. The global situation has not improved and it is not showing any signs of recovery.
The monetary policy essence indicators are not showing any improvement either.
Inflation has not performed at all. With low oil prices I dont see this changing any time soon.
Average Earnings has ticked up a bit this month. The index printed 0.5% vs 0.3% expected. This is a good sign but nowhere near enough for FED to raise interest rates.
Employment came out as a big disappointment at 151K vs 189K expected. Big set back in expectation in February.
As WSJ says:
Fed officials including Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen have signalled in recent weeks a cautious stance amid recent market turmoil, tightening financial conditions and uncertain global growth and inflation outlook.
The above could be confirmed by Commitments of Traders reports, which suggest that big guys are running from dollar in a big way. Dollar longs have been cut drastically by non-commercial traders in recent weeks. The market does not believe the hype after Decembers hike crashed equities all over the place.
Looking at probabilities, they are slightly better than previous week but still very poor.



Based on below data, my prediction NO RATES HIKES IN 2016 stands firm.
March is priced in @ 8%. This is up from 2% previously
April is priced @ 18%. This is up from 11% previously
June is priced @ 25%. This is up from 14% previously
July is priced @ 27%. This is up from 14% previously
September is priced @ 32%. This is up from 26% previously
November is priced @ 33%. This is up from 31% previously.
December is priced @ 42%. This is up from 40% previously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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HumbleTraders
  • #425,278
  • Feb 24, 2016 6:24pm Feb 24, 2016 6:24pm
Quoting USDollar
#GBPUSD On the sideline watching pound for now..... PA is below 2x1 so I'm staying away from it for now.... it has not closed below 1-21-16 =1.4079 Low yet..... but does not mean it cant happen.... 2-24-16 could shake the cage for pound, so in the mean time it could go sideways in a range and pop or drop on the 24th...... that is the next price and time date i will be watching.... {image}
24th is here and what a day...... lets see how the pound PA starts the next candle
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #425,279
  • Feb 24, 2016 9:50pm Feb 24, 2016 9:50pm
Bulls attempting to take back control now. Bears are out of steam for a bit.

Cable at 1.40 is next stop, 1.41 is possible once the 4H trend turns... Should be confirmed in about a day. It's just a retrace rally, not a uptrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bullsRetaking.png Size: 18 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #425,280
  • Feb 25, 2016 12:17am Feb 25, 2016 12:17am
anyone else seeing 4065 next or am I jumping the gun here
Come with me if you want to live....
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