Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#95,641
Edited Feb 19, 2016 12:01am Feb 18, 2016 11:29pm | Edited Feb 19, 2016 12:01am

bogus
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Symbol | 2,788 Posts

Looks like it's going for the re-test.

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#95,642
Feb 19, 2016 1:10am Feb 19, 2016 1:10am

exofabulous
| Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 90 Posts

i cant figure the level past 72, waiting for some proper data in march, as for now its a bit of a slow and boring trade after it moved so much from 80 cents. generally a 4 cent range and retest but lately has been so slow compared to other markets, I wonder if it has anything to do with the reserve bank hedging who knows what exact level they want, they went silent after it reached 70 cents. I'm waiting for a good buy on the aussie although i could be too late depends what the figures show in march.

#95,643
Feb 19, 2016 1:13am Feb 19, 2016 1:13am

exofabulous
| Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 90 Posts

Quoting skyhok

Disliked

So many tops tested hard to tell if there are higher ones coming? {image}

Ignored

well i was looking at a 73.58 or something but american data was good and aussie data bad, so now its a squeeze match or just rigid movement until a march I believe, although its never too late for a proper test, I have a gut feeling it my go up to 80 cents by the end of the year but when to buy and if that is way off i'm waiting for march and some more data.

#95,644
Feb 19, 2016 1:17am Feb 19, 2016 1:17am

exofabulous
| Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 90 Posts

oh wait i just got an email the reserve bank speaks on the paper saying the Aussie is too high lol no more silence, here it is

Australian dollar again too high, says RBA board member John Edwards
{C}JAMES GLYNN
{C}THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
{C}FEBRUARY 19, 2016 12:47PM
{C}SAVE
{C}PRINT
Dollar should certainly be lower, says RBA board member John Edwards.
The Australian dollar is again too high and risks are growing that it will start to climb as major central banks embrace negative interest rate policies to lift growth while the Federal Reserve postpones further US rate increases, a senior policy maker said.
John Edwards, a board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia, told The Wall Street Journal hed be more comfortable with the Australian dollar trading around US65c, rather than the current US71.50, but added he wasnt confident a downward movement to that level would occur.
Mr Edwardss comments are the first indication for some time of unease on the central bank board over the level of the Australian dollar.
The board members remarks come amid growing speculation that the RBA will lower rates this year to ensure that the Australian dollar isnt allowed to creep up. A stronger Aussie dollar could crunch an Australian economy that is increasingly reliant on a solid export performance to support growth.
Mr Edwards said the decline in the Australian dollar from records levels in 2011 looks to have ended, and action by other central bank could push it higher.
It does look like it (the Australian dollar) has found a base, and I guess I would say I still think it is a bit too high, Mr Edwards said. If it was driven entirely by commodity prices, it certainly should be lower, he added.
If the rest of the world moves further into negative rates territory then the differential with Australias current policy stance would widen, and that would put upward pressure on the currency, he warned.
Having jawboned the Australian dollar heavily when it appeared stubbornly high above US80c in 2014, the RBA has been more relaxed lately, saying the currency had been adjusting to economic circumstances.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens told MPs a week ago that he had noted the fact the Australian dollar was little changed recently, even as commodity prices had fallen.
Some commentators are starting to point to Australias increasing vulnerability as central banks like the Bank of Japan adopt negative interest rates policies, while the European Central Bank looks prepared to announce more stimulus.
Mr Edwards said he expects a further postponement of interest hikes in the US.
In contrast, the RBA has held its cash rate target at a record low 2.0 per cent for almost a year, and has signalled over recent months its contentment with that policy position.
Tim Toohey, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, Australia, warned this week that a rising Australian dollar would be the catalyst for interest rate cuts by the RBA this year.
The problem with leaving interest rates unchanged in Australia while other major central banks are contemplating easing is that it will risk the Australian dollar entering a damaging appreciation, he said. We now expect 25 basis points of easing in May and 25 basis points of easing in July.
Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at AmpGFX, based in Singapore, said it is getting increasingly hard to sell the Australian dollar in the face of negative rates policy abroad, and a US Federal that has stepped back from hiking.
The Australian dollar has risen from a six-year low in mid-January of around US68.50c and has been trading this week around US71.60c.
A low Australian dollar is needed to support the Australian economy to withstand a recent savaging of commodity prices and support growth in exports in areas of the economy such as tourism, education and health care.
Still, Mr Edwards said that services exports were continuing to grow strongly, despite renewed concerns over the overvalued currency.
Id be a lot more concerned about this level if it was not that our export performance on the whole has been pretty good, Mr Edwards said.
Wall Street Journal

#95,645
Edited 2:19am Feb 19, 2016 2:06am | Edited 2:19am

skyhok
Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts

Wow, RBA's Edwards wants 0.65, he's more ambitious than the technical ...................... 0.67 is as far as I can project it down.
At least he's on the right track ..... or I'm.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades

#95,646
Feb 19, 2016 2:52am Feb 19, 2016 2:52am

synapsez
| Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 19 Posts

China’s central bank will boost the amount of reserves some banks must lock away as it moves to contain risks after a January surge in credit by smaller lenders.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-fast-iktagqob

bad for au ?

"Nothing comes easy"

#95,647
Feb 19, 2016 2:57am Feb 19, 2016 2:57am

FXClarity
Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 952 Posts

Quoting tashkent

Disliked

taking some shorts around 7170-80. hopefully will workout.

Ignored

Bit of a slow grind until 7144 was cleared but then a smooth run down - a very good entry off the mid timeframes - well done

#95,648
Feb 19, 2016 4:38am Feb 19, 2016 4:38am

Fx 35
| Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 118 Posts

Quoting JohnDalio

Disliked

{quote} Hey Fx 35 thanks for sharing your chart, please can you tell more details about the King's Crown or if you have a link to share pls? many thks!

Ignored

Hi John, sure I can, I'm just currently busy with exams and work, but I'll my best next week to post something about the king's crown

Fx 35

#95,649
Feb 19, 2016 4:53am Feb 19, 2016 4:53am

trader700
| Joined Sep 2014 | Status: watching | 114 Posts

Quoting skyhok

Disliked

Wow, RBA's Edwards wants 0.65, he's more ambitious than the technical ...................... 0.67 is as far as I can project it down. At least he's on the right track ..... or I'm. {image}

Ignored

And BOJ wants USDJPY @ 130 and look what is happening after each action they take

#95,650
Feb 19, 2016 5:33am Feb 19, 2016 5:33am

Don96
Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 7,803 Posts

Could be about to break some...?

#95,651
Feb 19, 2016 6:13am Feb 19, 2016 6:13am

tashkent
Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts

Quoting FXClarity

Disliked

{quote} Bit of a slow grind until 7144 was cleared but then a smooth run down - a very good entry off the mid timeframes - well done

Ignored

Indeed, shorts had to wait for pressure to built up, it was slow, but happened. i decided to add one more big position around 7160 which i was saving for 7210. at around 7100 closed half and right now waiting how 7135 will react, may add there if bull shows weakness.
happy pipping

As Above, So Below

#95,652
Feb 19, 2016 6:35am Feb 19, 2016 6:35am

wisemonk
| Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 30 Posts

All markets are prone to manipulation, and currencies are no different. RBA and other forces try to pull it in different directions. The RBA guy can given an opinion, and it might temporarily get the pair to spike up or down a little bit, but PA calls the last shot.

There are two market mover events tonight.. The Canadian and the US CPI release. Both may have an impact on the pair. Currently the pair is in a channel (from the 1 hour chart). I believe oil prices will keep falling because of Iran and current over supply in the market. I believe that the CPI releases may also not be favourable given that it is January. If you couple them both there might be a sharp move downwards breaking the channel in the one hour chart. The pair is trading towards the bottom of the channel. At the most it may spike up to 0.7130 to 0.7140. But then it is heading downwards I think. Again, this is just my guess.

Attached Image

#95,653
Feb 19, 2016 8:07am Feb 19, 2016 8:07am

skyhok
Joined Feb 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,796 Posts

Quoting trader700

Disliked

{quote} And BOJ wants USDJPY @ 130 and look what is happening after each action they take

Ignored

Well, for USDJPY, the market is gona take it up close to 130 in about 6 months time, not the BOJ.
Just a general plan- price alert set near 110.90 for long term longs, pending a reversal there.

https://i.gyazo.com/e781b32fb85ed183...8170be00ce.png

Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades

#95,654
Feb 19, 2016 11:13am Feb 19, 2016 11:13am

DonaldB
| Joined Feb 2016 | Status: 1001 | 45 Posts

Yesterday downs AUD / USD to the 0.7133 support area attracted the interest on the purchase, but the bulls effort was not enough to absorb the Ofer placed in the area of 0.7180. In the Asian session, members of the Board comments about still high Australian dollar was subjected to the sale, and he dropped to the level of 0.7093.

The pressure is maintained, and with it the risks of testing 0.7000. This can contribute to the acceleration of inflationary pressures in the United States, but in the case of deceleration in inflation will be supported by the pair.

#95,655
Feb 19, 2016 11:37am Feb 19, 2016 11:37am

tashkent
Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts

Quoting tashkent

Disliked

{quote} right now waiting how 7135 will react, may add there if bull shows weakness.

Ignored

this is still valid

As Above, So Below

#95,656
Feb 19, 2016 1:55pm Feb 19, 2016 1:55pm

Flieldel
| Joined Aug 2015 | Status: Trader | 138 Posts

I think that the price will reach 0.719547 level. After that, the price will go to the level of 0.6979 or further.

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#95,657
Feb 20, 2016 12:57pm Feb 20, 2016 12:57pm

JohnDalio
| Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2014 | 196 Posts

Quoting Fx 35

Disliked

{quote} Hi John, sure I can, I'm just currently busy with exams and work, but I'll my best next week to post something about the king's crown Fx 35

Ignored

Hey Fx 35, thank you very much, I couldn't find much material online, I look forward to it much appreciated

good luck with your exams