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AUD/USD

  • #95,641
  • Edited 10:01pm Feb 18, 2016 9:29pm | Edited 10:01pm
Looks like it's going for the re-test.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #95,642
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:10pm Feb 18, 2016 11:10pm
i cant figure the level past 72, waiting for some proper data in march, as for now its a bit of a slow and boring trade after it moved so much from 80 cents. generally a 4 cent range and retest but lately has been so slow compared to other markets, I wonder if it has anything to do with the reserve bank hedging who knows what exact level they want, they went silent after it reached 70 cents. I'm waiting for a good buy on the aussie although i could be too late depends what the figures show in march.
  • #95,643
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:13pm Feb 18, 2016 11:13pm
Quoting skyhok
So many tops tested hard to tell if there are higher ones coming? {image}
well i was looking at a 73.58 or something but american data was good and aussie data bad, so now its a squeeze match or just rigid movement until a march I believe, although its never too late for a proper test, I have a gut feeling it my go up to 80 cents by the end of the year but when to buy and if that is way off i'm waiting for march and some more data.
  • #95,644
  • Feb 18, 2016 11:17pm Feb 18, 2016 11:17pm
oh wait i just got an email the reserve bank speaks on the paper saying the Aussie is too high lol no more silence, here it is

Australian dollar again too high, says RBA board member John Edwards
{C}JAMES GLYNN
{C}THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
{C}FEBRUARY 19, 2016 12:47PM
{C}SAVE
{C}PRINT
Dollar should certainly be lower, says RBA board member John Edwards.
The Australian dollar is again too high and risks are growing that it will start to climb as major central banks embrace negative interest rate policies to lift growth while the Federal Reserve postpones further US rate increases, a senior policy maker said.
John Edwards, a board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia, told The Wall Street Journal hed be more comfortable with the Australian dollar trading around US65c, rather than the current US71.50, but added he wasnt confident a downward movement to that level would occur.
Mr Edwardss comments are the first indication for some time of unease on the central bank board over the level of the Australian dollar.
The board members remarks come amid growing speculation that the RBA will lower rates this year to ensure that the Australian dollar isnt allowed to creep up. A stronger Aussie dollar could crunch an Australian economy that is increasingly reliant on a solid export performance to support growth.
Mr Edwards said the decline in the Australian dollar from records levels in 2011 looks to have ended, and action by other central bank could push it higher.
It does look like it (the Australian dollar) has found a base, and I guess I would say I still think it is a bit too high, Mr Edwards said. If it was driven entirely by commodity prices, it certainly should be lower, he added.
If the rest of the world moves further into negative rates territory then the differential with Australias current policy stance would widen, and that would put upward pressure on the currency, he warned.
Having jawboned the Australian dollar heavily when it appeared stubbornly high above US80c in 2014, the RBA has been more relaxed lately, saying the currency had been adjusting to economic circumstances.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens told MPs a week ago that he had noted the fact the Australian dollar was little changed recently, even as commodity prices had fallen.
Some commentators are starting to point to Australias increasing vulnerability as central banks like the Bank of Japan adopt negative interest rates policies, while the European Central Bank looks prepared to announce more stimulus.
Mr Edwards said he expects a further postponement of interest hikes in the US.
In contrast, the RBA has held its cash rate target at a record low 2.0 per cent for almost a year, and has signalled over recent months its contentment with that policy position.
Tim Toohey, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, Australia, warned this week that a rising Australian dollar would be the catalyst for interest rate cuts by the RBA this year.
The problem with leaving interest rates unchanged in Australia while other major central banks are contemplating easing is that it will risk the Australian dollar entering a damaging appreciation, he said. We now expect 25 basis points of easing in May and 25 basis points of easing in July.
Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at AmpGFX, based in Singapore, said it is getting increasingly hard to sell the Australian dollar in the face of negative rates policy abroad, and a US Federal that has stepped back from hiking.
The Australian dollar has risen from a six-year low in mid-January of around US68.50c and has been trading this week around US71.60c.
A low Australian dollar is needed to support the Australian economy to withstand a recent savaging of commodity prices and support growth in exports in areas of the economy such as tourism, education and health care.
Still, Mr Edwards said that services exports were continuing to grow strongly, despite renewed concerns over the overvalued currency.
Id be a lot more concerned about this level if it was not that our export performance on the whole has been pretty good, Mr Edwards said.
Wall Street Journal
  • #95,645
  • Edited 12:19am Feb 19, 2016 12:06am | Edited 12:19am
Wow, RBA's Edwards wants 0.65, he's more ambitious than the technical ...................... 0.67 is as far as I can project it down.
At least he's on the right track ..... or I'm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4 19Feb16.png Size: 38 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #95,646
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:52am Feb 19, 2016 12:52am
China’s central bank will boost the amount of reserves some banks must lock away as it moves to contain risks after a January surge in credit by smaller lenders.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-fast-iktagqob

bad for au ?
"Nothing comes easy"
  • #95,647
  • Feb 19, 2016 12:57am Feb 19, 2016 12:57am
Quoting tashkent
taking some shorts around 7170-80. hopefully will workout.
​Bit of a slow grind until 7144 was cleared but then a smooth run down - a very good entry off the mid timeframes - well done
  • #95,648
  • Feb 19, 2016 2:38am Feb 19, 2016 2:38am
Quoting JohnDalio
{quote} Hey Fx 35 thanks for sharing your chart, please can you tell more details about the King's Crown or if you have a link to share pls? many thks!
Hi John, sure I can, I'm just currently busy with exams and work, but I'll my best next week to post something about the king's crown

Fx 35
  • #95,649
  • Feb 19, 2016 2:53am Feb 19, 2016 2:53am
Quoting skyhok
Wow, RBA's Edwards wants 0.65, he's more ambitious than the technical ...................... 0.67 is as far as I can project it down. At least he's on the right track ..... or I'm. {image}
And BOJ wants USDJPY @ 130 and look what is happening after each action they take
  • #95,650
  • Feb 19, 2016 3:33am Feb 19, 2016 3:33am
Could be about to break some...? ​
  • #95,651
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:13am Feb 19, 2016 4:13am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} ​Bit of a slow grind until 7144 was cleared but then a smooth run down - a very good entry off the mid timeframes - well done
Indeed, shorts had to wait for pressure to built up, it was slow, but happened. i decided to add one more big position around 7160 which i was saving for 7210. at around 7100 closed half and right now waiting how 7135 will react, may add there if bull shows weakness.
happy pipping
As Above, So Below
  • #95,652
  • Feb 19, 2016 4:35am Feb 19, 2016 4:35am
​
All markets are prone to manipulation, and currencies are no different. RBA and other forces try to pull it in different directions. The RBA guy can given an opinion, and it might temporarily get the pair to spike up or down a little bit, but PA calls the last shot.

There are two market mover events tonight.. The Canadian and the US CPI release. Both may have an impact on the pair. Currently the pair is in a channel (from the 1 hour chart). I believe oil prices will keep falling because of Iran and current over supply in the market. I believe that the CPI releases may also not be favourable given that it is January. If you couple them both there might be a sharp move downwards breaking the channel in the one hour chart. The pair is trading towards the bottom of the channel. At the most it may spike up to 0.7130 to 0.7140. But then it is heading downwards I think. Again, this is just my guess.
Attached Image
  • #95,653
  • Feb 19, 2016 6:07am Feb 19, 2016 6:07am
Quoting trader700
{quote} And BOJ wants USDJPY @ 130 and look what is happening after each action they take
Well, for USDJPY, the market is gona take it up close to 130 in about 6 months time, not the BOJ.
Just a general plan- price alert set near 110.90 for long term longs, pending a reversal there.

https://i.gyazo.com/e781b32fb85ed183...8170be00ce.png
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #95,654
  • Feb 19, 2016 9:13am Feb 19, 2016 9:13am
Yesterday downs AUD / USD to the 0.7133 support area attracted the interest on the purchase, but the bulls effort was not enough to absorb the Ofer placed in the area of 0.7180. In the Asian session, members of the Board comments about still high Australian dollar was subjected to the sale, and he dropped to the level of 0.7093.

The pressure is maintained, and with it the risks of testing 0.7000. This can contribute to the acceleration of inflationary pressures in the United States, but in the case of deceleration in inflation will be supported by the pair.
  • #95,655
  • Feb 19, 2016 9:37am Feb 19, 2016 9:37am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} right now waiting how 7135 will react, may add there if bull shows weakness.
this is still valid
As Above, So Below
  • #95,656
  • Feb 19, 2016 11:55am Feb 19, 2016 11:55am
I think that the price will reach 0.719547 level. After that, the price will go to the level of 0.6979 or further.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.png Size: 36 KB
  • #95,657
  • Feb 20, 2016 10:57am Feb 20, 2016 10:57am
Quoting Fx 35
{quote} Hi John, sure I can, I'm just currently busy with exams and work, but I'll my best next week to post something about the king's crown Fx 35
Hey Fx 35, thank you very much, I couldn't find much material online, I look forward to it much appreciated good luck with your exams
  • #95,658
  • Feb 20, 2016 11:21am Feb 20, 2016 11:21am
Good move last week.
  • #95,659
  • Feb 20, 2016 11:40am Feb 20, 2016 11:40am
I would enter short trade at 0.72250 for 50-70 pips...
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #95,660
  • Feb 21, 2016 8:11am Feb 21, 2016 8:11am
Commitments of Traders report is now ready.
Non-Commercial traders are NET LONG AUD FUTURES. First time since March 2014.
HumbleTraders
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