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AUD/USD

  • #95,601
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:45pm Feb 16, 2016 9:45pm
Australian shares are on shakey grounds as the earnings start coming in and its not all pretty.

With that in mind lets cast our mind back to the unemployment rate improving.

What CEO hires more people when revenues are subsiding ? None.

Its all coming home to roost.
  • #95,602
  • Edited 10:08pm Feb 16, 2016 9:48pm | Edited 10:08pm
An alternate view on daily:

Unless the upper channel line resistance is invalidated @ 0.7215, yesterday's high @ 0.7182 set the stage for more downside PA, at least finding new low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 17Feb16.png Size: 64 KB


https://i.gyazo.com/60c3e582c6d8ac2d...0721bc320e.png
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #95,603
  • Feb 16, 2016 10:23pm Feb 16, 2016 10:23pm
Just wanna share my thought, the black line (trend line) acts as a strong s/r level, the price bounced after touching this trend line, I'm expecting the price to move lower around 0.7070 and at the same time looking for any bullish divergence before going long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing"
  • #95,604
  • Feb 17, 2016 12:39am Feb 17, 2016 12:39am
Quoting Mr.cool
Just wanna share my thought, the black line (trend line) acts as a strong s/r level, the price bounced after touching this trend line, I'm expecting the price to move lower around 0.7070 and at the same time looking for any bullish divergence before going long. {image}
very good chance you will see price lower than 0.7070 today (imho, don't take it seriously). However, you did an interesting chart analysis. Clean and simple.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #95,605
  • Feb 17, 2016 12:58am Feb 17, 2016 12:58am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} very good chance you will see price lower than 0.7070 today (imho, don't take it seriously). However, you did an interesting chart analysis. Clean and simple.
well i guess i didnt write it clearly,
when i said 'move lower' meaning move lower than current price, not lower than 0.7070. people laugh for something that is not happening now,but cry for something that has happened.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing"
  • #95,606
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:06am Feb 17, 2016 1:06am
Quoting andoseg2
Interesting H&S pattern. {image}
Update:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.png Size: 32 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #95,607
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:14am Feb 17, 2016 1:14am
Quoting Mr.cool
{quote} well i guess i didnt write it clearly, when i said 'move lower' meaning move lower than current price, not lower than 0.7070. people laugh for something that is not happening now,but cry for something that has happened.
My apology. I am saying you are good, and we have very good probability price will go lower and break the stalemate. Sorry if i offended you, but i am on your side of trade too. We can't possibly know the future, but i am totally agree with your analysis.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #95,608
  • Feb 17, 2016 3:36am Feb 17, 2016 3:36am
double bottom + engulfing 1h + divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #95,609
  • Feb 17, 2016 6:00am Feb 17, 2016 6:00am
hi guys i am from South Africa and i have been trading the audusd for about a month now. In terms of actually trading the pair is there a certain time when movement of the pair is abit more liquid.
  • #95,610
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:06am Feb 17, 2016 7:06am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you never know if it was too early or late until things happen this was a good run after exhaustion. i reversed the trade and took small long at 7089 with 10 pip sl target 30 pips to utilize the bounce
7089 died at BE. reentered later 7093 and then added one more. initial target reached. now can close the first position for 40 pips and ride the free trade. i really want to see it go higher for better shorting opportunity
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.png Size: 22 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #95,611
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:19am Feb 17, 2016 7:19am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} 7089 died at BE. reentered later 7093 and then added one more. initial target reached. now can close the first position for 40 pips and ride the free trade. i really want to see it go higher for better shorting opportunity {image}

IMHO, i won't rule out what you had said, but i feel that the retracement back up won't go as high as .719x region. Just my opinion, the retracement back up could already be done by now. (.7120 currently, down from highs of .7140)

Cheers!
  • #95,612
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:29am Feb 17, 2016 7:29am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} IMHO, i won't rule out what you had said, but i feel that the retracement back up won't go as high as .719x region. Just my opinion, the retracement back up could already be done by now. (.7120 currently, down from highs of .7140) Cheers!
even a spike to 7150-60 would do it. if we are in a leg down, need to see how 7070-80 will react. we have some support built up there
As Above, So Below
  • #95,613
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:45am Feb 17, 2016 7:45am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} even a spike to 7150-60 would do it. if we are in a leg down, need to see how 7070-80 will react. we have some support built up there

Won't rule that out for a spike to the levels you had mentioned. Current strength seems weak. Well, i will be expecting range till FOMC minutes later. Until strong support at .7070-80 region breaks, we can expect more days of ranging movement.
  • #95,614
  • Feb 17, 2016 7:54am Feb 17, 2016 7:54am
Quoting JohnDalio
{quote} Hey Fx 35 thanks for sharing your chart, please can you tell more details about the King's Crown or if you have a link to share pls? many thks!
Or maybe its a secret? ...
  • #95,615
  • Feb 17, 2016 11:22am Feb 17, 2016 11:22am
just got in at .7176 going short!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #95,616
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:20pm Feb 17, 2016 1:20pm
taking some shorts around 7170-80. hopefully will workout.
As Above, So Below
  • #95,617
  • Feb 17, 2016 1:26pm Feb 17, 2016 1:26pm
taking short 7174 hope go down
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  • #95,618
  • Feb 17, 2016 2:19pm Feb 17, 2016 2:19pm
I think the pair might touch 0.7195 area before going down (from the 1 hour chart). The aussie dollar has rallied against most major currencies. So there may be another bounce in the upward direction.
  • #95,619
  • Feb 17, 2016 2:39pm Feb 17, 2016 2:39pm
this pair still has much more legs to the up side 0.7235 first target if breaks the 0.7350's
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #95,620
  • Feb 17, 2016 3:34pm Feb 17, 2016 3:34pm
Australian unemployment out today.

I wonder what the ABS will BS us today with ?

There is a private operator who calculates statistics more accurately. ( see below )

http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/...mates-detailed

Not so much interested the number but the trend which actually mirrors the Australian economic performance.

Enough rant there.

As for the currency there was some solid buying interest last week and no doubt this has had impact on the shorts being squeezed.
The higher the currency goes the more likely the RBA will cut.
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