Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 21213 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #424,242
  • Feb 16, 2016 5:27pm Feb 16, 2016 5:27pm
what were looking at is that swing low may 2010 ,price just spent 8 hours on a possible tl ,price would have to move up first few hours of new day ,away from support ,to build confidence
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 USD (DFB).png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 USD d1 (DFB).png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 USD h8 (DFB).png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,243
  • Feb 16, 2016 6:07pm Feb 16, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting Bones
what were looking at is that swing low may 2010 ,price just spent 8 hours on a possible tl ,price would have to move up first few hours of new day ,away from support ,to build confidence {image} {image} {image}
Yesterday.once more, lol
  • #424,244
  • Edited 7:37pm Feb 16, 2016 7:19pm | Edited 7:37pm
Jeeze people... You don't start thinking about buying the day after a major reversal... Bulls will be demoralized for days.

This 1.43 area finding a little support is interesting, but it's technically insignificant... I am either going to wait until the H4 trend recovers, or price penetrates this swing low before looking to trade long.

Might not trade GU long until next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: firstBuyZone.png Size: 17 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,245
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:30pm Feb 16, 2016 7:30pm
Here is a great way to think about risk and reward... Do you really think that the bulls are going to be bidding up the GU in excitement the day after a market rout like that? If there isn't likely to be a big move, only a retrace rally, don't bother.

Hourly trend has recovered. If you want to try to play a 50-75 pip retrace rally, go ahead with it. Nobody can stop you!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hourlyRecovered.png Size: 10 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,246
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:31pm Feb 16, 2016 7:31pm
3 solid weeks of rejection from the 23.6 fib of the significant weekly swing high/low (June or july to January) is hard for me to ignore.
A strong spike to 4425 daily resistance area and I am selling
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,247
  • Feb 16, 2016 7:57pm Feb 16, 2016 7:57pm
really you say buying there because of the indicator ?
btw for the mo better to view the entire area as consolidation ,keep in mind many tried buying in that tight box above
often the case market will push to the limit ,you think no way
Its gone to that tl on my chart for past couple of weeks
its where it could bounce ,but still a break up is best to trade if that happened
I'm looking for bullish candles cause its exactly where I thought and it stopped

Quoting meanvel
Jeeze people... You don't start thinking about buying the day after a major reversal... Bulls will be demoralized for days. This 1.43 area finding a little support is interesting, but it's technically insignificant... I am either going to wait until the H4 trend recovers, or price penetrates this swing low before looking to trade long. Might not trade GU long until next week. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,248
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:05pm Feb 16, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting Bones
really you say buying there because of the indicator?{quote}
No, just a old rule of thumb. Like how S&P bull market corrections are around three weeks... A reversal like this isn't likely to find real support for around three days at minimum including this reversal day. *Three days which test new lows.*
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,249
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:29pm Feb 16, 2016 8:29pm
I might add although usd has opened and gone up from the pivot,
its now at that swing 2009 ,I cant be sure its not going back to top but then again been acting bearish



Quoting Bones
usd, ,on pivot {quote} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDLFXWeekly.png Size: 23 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,250
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:30pm Feb 16, 2016 8:30pm
You all know about the Magic-T theory, right? Basically... It's a theory that the futures trader Martin Schwartz adopted and it was invented by some crazy Harvard grad or something. Let me summarize the only worthwhile part of the theory. The theory is that the market spends the same amount of time rising as falling. A good period will be followed by a equivalent length bad period.

However, I find this is only roughly true... The amount of time the market spends rising and falling is only equal if the market trend is sideways. In an uptrend it will nearly always spend more time rising than falling, and in a downtrend more time falling than rising.

While the theory is good, the markets are slightly more complicated... A violent market move like a buying frenzy will pull everyone in real fast and make for a shorter lived move, while a lower intensity move can last longer.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,251
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:35pm Feb 16, 2016 8:35pm
M I just trade what I see ,I am waiting for bullish ,normally I admit 100 pip + fall ,I wait next day ,
nothing against you but I'm not interested in all the quotes ,you can read it and digest it ,but I doubt it will help much


Quoting meanvel
You all know about the Magic-T theory, right? Basically... It's a theory that the futures trader Martin Schwartz adopted and it was invented by some crazy Harvard grad or something. Let me summarize the only worthwhile part of the theory. The theory is that the market spends the same amount of time rising as falling. A good period will be followed by a equivalent length bad period. However, I find this is only roughly true... The amount of time the market spends rising and falling is only equal if the market trend is sideways. In an uptrend it will...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,252
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:38pm Feb 16, 2016 8:38pm
Quoting meanvel
A violent market move like a buying frenzy will pull everyone in real fast and make for a shorter lived move, while a lower intensity move can last longer.
Look at all the recent pound slides... Low intensity ones have moderate duration, high intensity ones, or ones that eventually develop high intensity, they are short lived at that point. At that point... Everyone long that is going to panic has about panicked, and everyone that is going to get sucked in short, has gotten sucked in and their selling pressure is all burned into the market already.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: intensityDemonstration.png Size: 26 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,253
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:43pm Feb 16, 2016 8:43pm
its really simple ,its got break up ,down end of idea ,its just a thought
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 USD (DFB).png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,254
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:47pm Feb 16, 2016 8:47pm
I do admit though, the market did burn the candle on both ends in the short term. On the H4, we burned the hell out of the very short term selling pressure, so there is decent reason to be very short term bullish for tonight.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: burnedHot.png Size: 16 KB


But, when it comes to the bigger picture like the daily, this was just a calm little dip... There is no panic, and there is no hype, no fear in those holding longer term swing positions. They are just sitting there calmly for the moment just a little surprised by the break, but enough time with price down here, they will start to get scared.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,255
  • Feb 16, 2016 8:57pm Feb 16, 2016 8:57pm
Good support on the GBPUSD at the 1.4300 area, but price could break it and try to visit the 1.4200.
  • #424,256
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:08pm Feb 16, 2016 9:08pm
Quoting meanvel
You all know about the Magic-T theory, right? Basically... It's a theory that the futures trader Martin Schwartz adopted and it was invented by some crazy Harvard grad or something. Let me summarize the only worthwhile part of the theory. The theory is that the market spends the same amount of time rising as falling. A good period will be followed by a equivalent length bad period. However, I find this is only roughly true... The amount of time the market spends rising and falling is only equal if the market trend is sideways. In an uptrend it will...
Equal "time" rising and falling will only produce a sideways market if the buying and selling velocity are the same
(not realiztic) so the market can spend equal "time" rising and falling and still trend
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,257
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:17pm Feb 16, 2016 9:17pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Equal "time" rising and falling will only produce a sideways market if the buying and selling velocity are the same (not realiztic) so the market can spend equal "time" rising and falling and still trend
Yep, I mentioned that.

"While the theory is good, the markets are slightly more complicated... A violent market move like a buying frenzy will pull everyone in real fast and make for a shorter lived move, while a lower intensity move can last longer."

However, if you chart markets using volume or tick charts... (Futures Only)... You will find the theory is highly valid... Because for some reason futures consistently require close to the same amount of volume to move the same number of ticks through the day.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,258
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:21pm Feb 16, 2016 9:21pm
It's an interesting concept rising and falling, price fluctuations with trends within trends and corrections. Economic forces on price and price forces on economic activity, (since the pendulum swings both ways) it wouldn't surprise me one bit if markets spent equal time rising and falling when averaged out over years
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,259
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:23pm Feb 16, 2016 9:23pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
It's an interesting concept rising and falling, price fluctuations with trends within trends and corrections. Economic forces on price and price forces on economic activity, (since the pendulum swings both ways) it wouldn't surprise me one bit if markets spent equal time rising and falling when averaged out over years
Only currency markets... Equities indices generally are always secular bulls and commodities are mostly secular bears.

Stocks have historically burned up their selling pressure in spectacularly violent crashes in the last half century, leading to long bull markets with very long rises. Commodities for some reason have done the opposite... Explosive rises, and very long slow bear markets.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,260
  • Feb 16, 2016 9:24pm Feb 16, 2016 9:24pm
Quoting meanvel
{quote} Yep, I mentioned that. "While the theory is good, the markets are slightly more complicated... A violent market move like a buying frenzy will pull everyone in real fast and make for a shorter lived move, while a lower intensity move can last longer." However, if you chart markets using volume or tick charts... (Futures Only)... You will find the theory is highly valid... Because for some reason futures consistently require close to the same amount of volume to move the same number of ticks through the day.
what you are talking about in the first paragraph are moves that last for different times not same time. So no, you didn't mention it
Come with me if you want to live....
1,645 traders viewing now, 1 is registered: