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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #424,161
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:18pm Feb 15, 2016 8:18pm
Analyzing the trend strength levels on the weekly... Complicated picture right now. The downtrend is still in place, but it's got a very strong divergence.

I don't think it's a good idea to short GU. The best risk/reward is in long trades if this daily pattern breaks downward and retraces most or all of the way back down.

At the rate this divergence is proceeding, we could transition to an uptrend in around a month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: divergenceVsTrend.png Size: 17 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,162
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:36pm Feb 15, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Could do. The daily is wedged in between, dare I say it, support and resistance lines. 38.2 fib maybe all the love bears get, who knows, could easily be a shake out with no news trigger... Except bad GBP numbers (from yesterday) {image} {image}
I think we will keep finding support within this pattern before the weekly sends it north
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,163
  • Feb 15, 2016 10:40pm Feb 15, 2016 10:40pm
Yes, I'm keeping eyes on 1.4340 or even 1.4300 areas for support or termination of correction 2.
Most likely an advance of 3rd leg of ending diagonal from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 16Feb16.png Size: 41 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #424,164
  • Feb 15, 2016 10:55pm Feb 15, 2016 10:55pm
Morning all
At London open will place sell on GBPUSD at 4395 target 3942
Forex, awful to watch, AWESOME to play
  • #424,165
  • Feb 15, 2016 11:49pm Feb 15, 2016 11:49pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I think we will keep finding support within this pattern before the weekly sends it north
There are a lot of people that want GU down around 1.42-1.43 to pick it up cheaper... People are not going to start buying hand over fist unless they see it can't get down there after a couple more attempts.

I really don't recommend getting bullish the GU until one or both of these bull defensive points are tested.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: notBuyingUntil.png Size: 14 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,166
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:40am Feb 16, 2016 12:40am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} There are a lot of people that want GU down around 1.42-1.43 to pick it up cheaper... People are not going to start buying hand over fist unless they see it can't get down there after a couple more attempts. I really don't recommend getting bullish the GU until one or both of these bull defensive points are tested. {image}
Same here. I took a short at 1.44095.
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #424,167
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:43am Feb 16, 2016 12:43am
Buy Zone entering with pound dollar will confirm buy trade price later on in the trading day.
  • #424,168
  • Feb 16, 2016 12:45am Feb 16, 2016 12:45am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} There are a lot of people that want GU down around 1.42-1.43 to pick it up cheaper... People are not going to start buying hand over fist unless they see it can't get down there after a couple more attempts. I really don't recommend getting bullish the GU until one or both of these bull defensive points are tested. {image}
How do you know this?
4358ish area looks like good support
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,169
  • Edited 1:07am Feb 16, 2016 12:55am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} How do you know this? 4358ish area looks like good support
I dont know - you dont know but this we both know lol - we can look at charts and take a calculated risk of what we believe

By outlining our trades when we go in and when we exit.

Agree with 143 500 zone might have an early indication at 143 800.
  • #424,170
  • Edited 1:23am Feb 16, 2016 1:04am | Edited 1:23am
Lets just say on our side of the fence no one - no one knows where price is going, especailly here in this group - no body can know - is it staying, resting, or moving too, we know almost nothing but we can guess wait and see by using our perceived intelligence and working with a system which we have faith with.

If some one says its going to this price its a guess, if someone says i am trading at this price its an open guess with a higher level of confidence.

But we all know this already lol
  • #424,171
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:24am Feb 16, 2016 1:24am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} How do you know this? 4358ish area looks like good support
I know this because this is where I want to pick up some GBP/USD. Trading is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm assuming most currency hedge funds managers and institutionals players are thinking about picking up GU down there somewhere.

Everyone intelligent is just sitting here their hands waiting to see if it drops before buying...
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,172
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:25am Feb 16, 2016 1:25am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} There are a lot of people that want GU down around 1.42-1.43 to pick it up cheaper... People are not going to start buying hand over fist unless they see it can't get down there after a couple more attempts. I really don't recommend getting bullish the GU until one or both of these bull defensive points are tested. {image}
There's entirely nothing wrong with people entering at a cheaper price, when they can do it closer to where they place a stop loss.
In another words, trading with a tight stop loss for a better risk/reward ratio.
If that's what you mean?
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #424,173
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:31am Feb 16, 2016 1:31am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} I dont know - you dont know but this we both know lol - we can look at charts and take a calculated risk of what we believe By outlining our trades when we go in and when we exit. Agree with 143 500 zone might have an early indication at 143 800.
who knows lol...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,174
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:32am Feb 16, 2016 1:32am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} I know this because this is where I want to pick up some GBP/USD. Trading is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm assuming most currency hedge funds managers and institutionals players are thinking about picking up GU down there somewhere. Everyone intelligent is just sitting here their hands waiting to see if it drops before buying...
ok then
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #424,175
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:35am Feb 16, 2016 1:35am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} who knows lol...
u know who knows - he knows everything lol ..
have faith in ones system lol and let the messengers of this world carry messages whilst keeping us entertained
now then lets do some trading ..
  • #424,176
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:39am Feb 16, 2016 1:39am
Ok, simple linear daily trend analysis...
Downtrend is starting to confirm, there is a downward divergence, price pressure is starting to confirm negative.

Why would anyone bid up price aggressively here?

In speculation, the point is to buy and sell higher... Or bid up price, and sell to buyers that are attracted. Or vice versa. If price isn't rising, why buy if you don't think you can sell higher in the near future? Why bid up price if you don't think you can attract buyers?

There could always be some unknown like a hedge fund desperately defending a long position who slams the market with a few yards to desperately try to trigger a breakout rally.

Salomon Brothers traders would do things like slam the market with half a yard to a yard at different times to try to trigger or defuse rallies. Big institutional players like Soros always do exploratory trading. Like Soros said, if he wanted to buy 300mil in bonds, best to sell 50mil first to see if he could break the market down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyTrendFactors.png Size: 19 KB
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,177
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:47am Feb 16, 2016 1:47am
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  • #424,178
  • Feb 16, 2016 1:49am Feb 16, 2016 1:49am
Just over an hour and a half until CPI data. That could be a market mover...
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,179
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:23am Feb 16, 2016 2:23am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} The GU is kinda in a coin flip situation technically. When the technicals don't point to a direction, very commonly news catalyzes the next direction. We have CPI data coming out on Tuesday. That may give the GU a good kick. Which direction... Don't bother to speculate!
I see your point of view but in the medium to the long run the pair GBP/USD is bearish so the probability is to continue in the same direction.
  • #424,180
  • Feb 16, 2016 2:27am Feb 16, 2016 2:27am
Quoting meanvel
Just over an hour and a half until CPI data. That could be a market mover...
I've noticed that pound moves before the news, so when the news is out the move is already done. It happened quite frequently before.
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