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  • #424,121
  • Feb 15, 2016 6:54am Feb 15, 2016 6:54am
how much better would a dynamic system work with pa edge ,expectation
example -
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,122
  • Feb 15, 2016 6:59am Feb 15, 2016 6:59am
Over anticipation quite commonly leads to problematic behavior. If you anticipate a rally too much, you end up buying into the initial false starts before it takes off, or you are likely to up buying into the middle of the legs up, rather than properly waiting for a dip or support test to get in.

If you don't anticipate too much, you don't end up with impulsive FOMO trades.

But, everyone's psychology is different. You may not have a problem with anticipation causing entry timing issues.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,123
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:02am Feb 15, 2016 7:02am
no only if you don't know how to do it

Quoting meanvel
Over anticipation quite commonly leads to problematic behavior. If you anticipate a rally too much, you end up buying into the initial false starts before it takes off, or you are likely to up buying into the middle of the legs up, rather than properly waiting for a dip or support test to get in. If you don't anticipate too much, you don't end up with impulsive FOMO trades. But, everyone's psychology is different. You may not have a problem with anticipation causing entry timing issues.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,124
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:04am Feb 15, 2016 7:04am
I anticipate eur will fall ,I am right so far ,I'm on the right side straight away ,until I see something new

Quoting Bones
so I think eu is this for the mo at major res {image} {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,125
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:05am Feb 15, 2016 7:05am
following ,then after the event


Quoting meanvel
Like for example... The euro has been sliding right now before the Mario Speech like expected. Everyone is scared and pulling their longs before the speech. Market sentiment is sliding. Everyone expects him to say something to crash the euro. That may or may not happen, but that expectation is driving the market at the moment. There is no need to predict price. If price crashes to 1.11, or crashes hard to 1.1, all there is to do is wait for it to stabilize a bit, then start playing long as price regresses back up. Nobody knows exactly how big of...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,126
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:13am Feb 15, 2016 7:13am
markets far more predictable than you think ,only your experience is its not ,

its only your opinion and then mine but we are poles apart
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,127
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:14am Feb 15, 2016 7:14am
Ergh, stupid USD/CAD... It just can't break past the 25 strongly. I'm offloading the last little bit of my long position.

I'm starting to think I should have played the EU down tonight, instead of the USD/CAD long. Well, actually, nothing has been moving that much.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,128
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:20am Feb 15, 2016 7:20am
UC
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,129
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:23am Feb 15, 2016 7:23am
I thought the USD/CAD would manage more of a bid than that in the uptrend after failing to break 1.38, but it just completely lost a bid every time it tried to break over the 25... Now it's divergent.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,130
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:31am Feb 15, 2016 7:31am
Oh, When it comes to the USD/CAD in the bigger picture, this is where it's most likely going in the next couple weeks. Somewhere in the 1.36-1.35 area before it mounts a solid rally. I'm a extreme USD/CAD bear long term.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,131
  • Edited 7:54am Feb 15, 2016 7:38am | Edited 7:54am
how much would it be worth to be able to add weight to something ,
then say something with confidence ,grounded opinion not made up from my own short experience so far

Quoting Bones
I totally believe this ,in all probability, it can only retrace that down ,but now challenging a up tl {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,132
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:53am Feb 15, 2016 7:53am
I don't think you can say anything with much confidence when it comes to price. However, I think that time is quite predictable. Eg, making predictions that price will try to press downward for the next couple hours, or try to press upward for the next couple hours. That is something that can consistently be done.

However, predicting how many people join the move... That is unpredictable. The USD/CAD might not have rallied strongly just because some coincidence where a bunch of hedge fund managers are on a vacation and not at their desks, and if they were here, they would have provided just a little more fuel which would have catalyzed the move straight up to to the 50.

Tonight is strangely quiet...
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,133
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:54am Feb 15, 2016 7:54am
144 600 target 145 quick scalp on new system
  • #424,134
  • Feb 15, 2016 7:55am Feb 15, 2016 7:55am
hour gives few hours
daily gives..
etc ,in a fractal market /chart


Quoting meanvel
I don't think you can say anything with much confidence when it comes to price. However, I think that time is quite predictable. Eg, making predictions that price will try to press downward for the next couple hours, or try to press upward for the next couple hours. That is something that can consistently be done. However, predicting how many people join the move... That is unpredictable. The USD/CAD might not have rallied strongly just because some coincidence where a bunch of hedge fund managers are on a vacation and not at their desks, and if...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,135
  • Edited 8:15am Feb 15, 2016 8:00am | Edited 8:15am
monthly ,maybe not you but is the money chart ,
that dark cloud with upper wick ,brought price down 3k pips ,therefore someone had predicted thats the end for a long time on a super trend
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,136
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:02am Feb 15, 2016 8:02am
There is a unique thing about the relationship between time and price... The higher intensity a move away from average, (Measured via ranges, standard deviations, etc...), the shorter the move will last.

Which makes perfect sense. A slow move can last, but a fast move everyone gets excited about... Well, everyone is going to get on board or out of the way of that one quite fast.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #424,137
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:04am Feb 15, 2016 8:04am
http://www.bloomberg.com/live/europe

Draghi speech live. Let's see how SuperMario moves the market.
  • #424,138
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:04am Feb 15, 2016 8:04am
forward planning ?
high prob dark cloud in great location
fractal market could be a 2 min chart
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #424,139
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:18am Feb 15, 2016 8:18am
Quoting Bones
forward planning ? high prob dark cloud in great location fractal market could be a 2 min chart {image}
Your charts always look cool there Tony ..
  • #424,140
  • Feb 15, 2016 8:29am Feb 15, 2016 8:29am
This system i name thee Elbert 1 .. a scalpers dream - any one for arrows lol
Thanks god that presidents day means only one day .. more action on this pair later one presumes..
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