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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,181
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:04am Feb 8, 2016 10:04am
buy order triggered, target 116.93 for march's futures
  • #59,182
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:21am Feb 8, 2016 10:21am
I've entered longs on UJ too
  • #59,183
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:48am Feb 8, 2016 10:48am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Add back long - stop below 116
S/O
  • #59,184
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:59am Feb 8, 2016 10:59am
Quoting Bicarus
buy order triggered, target 116.93 for march's futures
Missed the train, Want to enter @ 89-89.5 (soft) (march)was too slow before, have to wait and see Asian session ?
don't get in love with pairs ... up or down is the same pip value
  • #59,185
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:00am Feb 8, 2016 11:00am
That was nice shot, It looks risky to hold as the weekly is very bearish; so it's a counter trade. Who is holding?
  • #59,186
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:41pm Feb 8, 2016 12:41pm
This pairs looks to be heading to 92 longer term. Hopefully I won't get caught long on that day
  • #59,187
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:43pm Feb 8, 2016 2:43pm
Why everyone is always buying temporary bottoms in a downtrend is beyond me. Why would you even think about getting long on this thing right now? Just sell the breakouts or rallies, everything else is bugging the trend and won't be successful over the long haul.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,188
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:48pm Feb 8, 2016 2:48pm
I just sold here.
  • #59,189
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:52pm Feb 8, 2016 2:52pm
Quoting midouch
I just sold here.
Always depends on your timeframe, but without looking I'm giving you
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,190
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:17pm Feb 8, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting Ken A
Sell low Buy high It works until it doesn't
It works forever if you're smart enough to factor in money management techniques. How do you think the big players (i.e. Hedge Funds) are making the money?
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,191
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:24pm Feb 8, 2016 3:24pm
http://www.managedfutures.com/top_cta_rankings.aspx

Decades of live performance updated monthly, almost none of these top performing CTA's in the future's and forex space are doing anything else than selling low and buying high - trendfollowing.
Google the term if you need to know more.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,192
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:43pm Feb 8, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting Slight
http://www.managedfutures.com/top_cta_rankings.aspx Decades of live performance updated monthly, almost none of these top performing CTA's in the future's and forex space are doing anything else than selling low and buying high - trendfollowing. Google the term if you need to know more.
Just curious, have you ever had money in any CTA or read their prospectus to see how they trade?
I've been in probably 20-30 CTAs & very few if any I've been in are "selling low and buying high-trendfollowing".
I just checked a few of the CTAs in the list you provided. Where are all the trendfollowers?
In the titles of the top 3 are "Multi-strategy", "Long-Short Program", "Non-directional Strategy". Doesn't sound like "trendfollowing" to me.
  • #59,193
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:58pm Feb 8, 2016 3:58pm
The name of the strategy does not give you an idea about what they are doing. Looking at the top 3 strategies you are talking about, they haven't even been incepted before 2010, that's ridiculous and doesn't give any clue about their performance. By the way, one of them is pure trendfollowing and the other claims "systematic short term trading" which sort of indicates a similar trading philosophy.
If you were to look through the entire list more closely you would find that trendfollowing performance is backed by decades of positive performance, i.e. Winton Capital , Mark Walsh & Company, Trendstat, Abraham Trading Company, DUNN Capital Management, Eckhardt Trading Company, Drury Capital and so on and so forth...
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,194
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:09pm Feb 8, 2016 4:09pm
I am talking about DECADE-LONG performance and you are giving me the FEBRUARY 2016 leaderboard. Great.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,195
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:15pm Feb 8, 2016 4:15pm
Show us your live trade calls how to buy high and sell low ....... in real time .........

We might learn something from you
  • #59,196
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:26pm Feb 8, 2016 4:26pm
Ken A: 18,806 Posts - and you haven't seen a strategy that is trendfollowing? And all the proof around the net supporting this approach?
Just look at the Trading Systems Forum or my profile and you will find ways to see trades that follow exactly that concept.
Plus, you won't judge trendfollowing or by that means ANY other serious trading approach by some live trade, it seems you haven't understood the whole concept of life-long trading and what's necessary to judge a trading approach. A couple of live trades sure as hell won't do it.

Oh and by the way, since you are "arguing" against buying high/selling low, where is your decade-long performance proof for buying low/selling high?
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,197
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:27pm Feb 8, 2016 4:27pm
Sorry, the statement "Sell high, buy low" does not convince me for a reason. What's "low" and "high" for you? And for the market dynamics? I mean,

EU was once at 1.60 that's high, then it dropped to 1.1 now what about people who were longing during this decline thinking that 1.3 or 1.4 was low? what if we didn't get there in the next 10 years? The market is so dynamic. I only trade counter trend when I feel that the move is "exhausted".

So one could think EU is cheap at these levels, okay, what if it goes back to 0.95? It just does not work like this in FX market. you have to admit that some price areas may not be revisited again and if you placed a trade in these zones without a stop, your account is gone.
  • #59,198
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:34pm Feb 8, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting Ken A
OK nothing more to add. Thought you had something to teach us.
I did give you hints if you didn't notice. Decade-long performance proof for example. You are welcome to do more research on this. I asked you one question (provide decade-long performance proof for what your argument was for) and you are capitulating. Hmmm..


Quote
Sorry, the statement "Sell high, buy low" does not convince me for a reason. What's "low" and "high" for you? And for the market dynamics?

Good point! You actually need a perspective on the market to decide what is high or low, then you can move on placing orders from there. Talking about a trading system.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,199
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:37pm Feb 8, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting Slight
Ken A: 18,806 Posts - and you haven't seen a strategy that is trendfollowing? And all the proof around the net supporting this approach? Just look at the Trading Systems Forum or my profile and you will find ways to see trades that follow exactly that concept. against buying high/selling low, where is your decade-long performance proof for buying low/selling high?
You haven't been watching very closely if you've been here since 2008.:nerd:
His performance would beat any of the "guru" traders on the list you provided. I don't even need a TE to know that. If you watch HOW someone trades long enough you'd understand how well they perform. It's why you need to read a prospectus to understand HOW those traders get the results.
  • #59,200
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:37pm Feb 8, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting Slight
Why everyone is always buying temporary bottoms in a downtrend is beyond me. Why would you even think about getting long on this thing right now? Just sell the breakouts or rallies, everything else is bugging the trend and won't be successful over the long haul.
Then show us how you trade instead of criticizing people on hindsight .............

On hindsight everyone is the best ................
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