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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #423,561
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:04am Feb 7, 2016 9:04am
I would challange anyone to make a channel ,thats technically correct
anyway I've had a go assuming up is the next move ,
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,562
  • Feb 7, 2016 10:11am Feb 7, 2016 10:11am
This is my scribbles, not really looing at pridicting where it'll go, either up, down or side ways is my thoughts, looking fairly unsure tbh my guess is bouncing between either of those two coloured trangles. trying to come back into that longer term trend, broke throu but still unsure at the moment?

Disclaimer, I'm a complete newb, just curious as to your thoughts?
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  • #423,563
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:46am Feb 7, 2016 11:46am
Quoting seosamh
This is my scribbles, not really looing at pridicting where it'll go, either up, down or side ways is my thoughts, looking fairly unsure tbh my guess is bouncing between either of those two coloured trangles. trying to come back into that longer term trend, broke throu but still unsure at the moment? Disclaimer, I'm a complete newb, just curious as to your thoughts? {image}
Hey seosamh, I currently like longs in GBP/USD. I've posted my analysis on my weekly outlook here if you're interested: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...look-2-7-2016/
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #423,564
  • Feb 7, 2016 12:22pm Feb 7, 2016 12:22pm
Thanks Geppy, I'll take a look.
  • #423,565
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:54pm Feb 7, 2016 3:54pm
Cable for the week in one chart
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HumbleTraders
  • #423,566
  • Feb 7, 2016 4:47pm Feb 7, 2016 4:47pm
Quoting seosamh
This is my scribbles, not really looing at pridicting where it'll go, either up, down or side ways is my thoughts, looking fairly unsure tbh my guess is bouncing between either of those two coloured trangles. trying to come back into that longer term trend, broke throu but still unsure at the moment? Disclaimer, I'm a complete newb, just curious as to your thoughts? {image}

I like this analysis.
  • #423,567
  • Feb 7, 2016 5:36pm Feb 7, 2016 5:36pm
Quoting seosamh
Quick question, you all always seem to know when the relevant news events for cable are? Is there a good source for finding this stuff out? (Apart for when you are all mentioning events!) I can find calendars, but that's still an awful lot of events (about 40 or 50 over the next week), how do you know which ones are important? I'm not really looking to trade on the news, but just want to be aware of big events I should be taking note of? Edit: Actually just noticed I can filter, so should I take note of all the events, just the high? Should the...
Just filter the calendar down... Take off the Kiwi (NZD/USD) unless you trade it. Leave on all the others. Even the CNY data causes movement in the EU and GU.

Remove the medium and low impact events. Bank holidays cause very slow price action, so leave on the zero impact events.

The low to medium impact events when the data surprises only cause a few people to be impulsive push through a short burst of buy or sell orders... They can cause a like a 5-15 pip reaction with regresses back. Most movement five minutes after low/medium impact news has nothing to do with the news. Any positive or negative effects mostly die off within five minutes, then the trading pattern goes back to doing what it was doing.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,568
  • Edited 6:40pm Feb 7, 2016 6:06pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting Bones
I would challange anyone to make a channel ,thats technically correct anyway I've had a go assuming up is the next move , {image} {image}
If something isn't obvious, it doesn't exist... Not enough people will trade off it to matter at all. But, just for fun because I'm bored... I will join the entertaining tea-leaves fun and draw some lines.

Some sellers will come in at the 1.49 area just because of this trendline between the highs, that is "if" we get up there. Next month that area will be about 1.475. I'm really skeptical enough institutional players and fund managers trade off trendlines or channels in Fx to matter... In stocks, sure, but here... I am skeptical. Weekly pit pivot reactions do not even occur in Forex like in stocks. It can be proven that there are large order pockets at even numbers and major Fibs. Show me order book data as a market approaches and interacts with a major trendline.

If you have ever been in the TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim chatrooms, you will see why pit pivots still matter in stocks... Half the people in those chatrooms are watching classic pit pivot levels as they trade, and mentioning them as they are hit. Self-fulfilling prophecy the market reacts to them!

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That is odd... I just checked my old FXCM Data in SierraChart, it puts the number at 1.5184 for this month. Weird... (I only use Oanda MT4 now, so I have not renewed my FXCM data subscription.)

Forex data varies quite a bit between providers... A bit more than stock data. I have even seen FXCM and Oanda trade 20 pips apart for minutes after major economic data is released. The data may simply vary too much across brokers and providers to have any consistent market reactions to things like trendlines... As people are always perceiving them to be at slightly different prices.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,569
  • Feb 7, 2016 6:32pm Feb 7, 2016 6:32pm
I get the feeling the emerging bear market is going to be a big USD driver after this retrace is over
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #423,570
  • Feb 7, 2016 6:41pm Feb 7, 2016 6:41pm
I'm thinking we will retest the broken GU monthly wedge , spike up towards resistance, (and 50 fib), then close the month back down outside before continuing down
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #423,571
  • Feb 7, 2016 6:51pm Feb 7, 2016 6:51pm
Most markets really do not behave enough like a chaotic system for things like trendlines and channels to matter that much...

If you really wanted to figure out if trendlines and channels matter, you would have to go into the market and buy yards of currency at say a daily channel bottom and see if kicking the market a quarter way up through the channel is enough to trigger others to follow through and push price to the top of the channel.

A few people here can do those kind of exploratory trading experiments in small stocks, but nobody has the capital to test how chaotic Forex behaves but big firms and hedge funds. The interviews with ex-Salomon Brothers provide evidence it's moderately chaotic. This means it's subject to the butterfly effect... One firm can trigger a market move which lasts days. (Sometimes, and in the right market conditions.)
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,572
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm
Quoting meanvel
Most markets really do not behave enough like a chaotic system for things like trendlines and channels to matter that much... If you really wanted to figure out if trendlines and channels matter, you would have to go into the market and buy yards of currency at say a daily channel bottom and see if kicking the market a quarter way up through the channel is enough to trigger others to follow through and push price to the top of the channel. A few people here can do those kind of exploratory trading experiments in small stocks, but nobody has the...
As retail traders it is not our job to move the market. It is our job to jump in the hedge fund stream and let it take us from point A to point B during their chaotic experiment
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #423,573
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:35pm Feb 7, 2016 9:35pm
Short pattern detected =))

Saying it now guys...Before its too late.
  • #423,574
  • Feb 8, 2016 12:47am Feb 8, 2016 12:47am
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morning bought a few last night looking to sell back
  • #423,575
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:12am Feb 8, 2016 2:12am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} As retail traders it is not our job to move the market. It is our job to jump in the hedge fund stream and let it take us from point A to point B during their chaotic experiment
No, what I am saying is trendlines and channels might be 100% useless. Aggressive orders hitting the market causing a bounceback when it touches the levels may not cause the market to continue the other way from the line hardly at all in Forex... Not with any followthrough.

If that is the case, then the market is not very chaotic, and that means positive feedback mechanisms are driving the short term price action primarily, either that or asset flows which are non-responsive, or a combination.

Anyway, who cares, gotta focus on the market!
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,576
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:45am Feb 8, 2016 2:45am
That open was a little bubbly with too much euphoria. People are getting ahead of themselves... The real rally shouldn't be until midweek.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,577
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:50am Feb 8, 2016 2:50am
What did I say guys... GBP gonna crash boyzzz
  • #423,578
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:05am Feb 8, 2016 3:05am
A little analysis for tonight... The 4H downtrend is weakening. It's just a consolidation downtrend, counter to the daily uptrend. By morning we might see a bit more solid of a bid come in on rallies.

But, still be aware of a dangerous breakdown zone below at 1.44. I don't think we will make it down there. A massive sell stop pocket is around there if we were to get close, so memorize that level over the next couple days until we pull upward.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,579
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:08am Feb 8, 2016 3:08am
Quoting ForexAuthor
What did I say guys... GBP gonna crash boyzzz
LoL, the market surged nearly fifty pips straight vertical to near 1.4550 after your call to short.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,580
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:11am Feb 8, 2016 3:11am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} No, what I am saying is trendlines and channels might be 100% useless. Aggressive orders hitting the market causing a bounceback when it touches the levels may not cause the market to continue the other way from the line hardly at all in Forex... Not with any followthrough. If that is the case, then the market is not very chaotic, and that means positive feedback mechanisms are driving the short term price action primarily, either that or asset flows which are non-responsive, or a combination. Anyway, who cares, gotta focus on the market!...
Hi Meanvel, it's a lot more complicated than that. Which TLs'?, which TF? We need to understand what TFs' is the market cycling in at the moment? Overall GU is in a multi year downtrend, but is currently in a bullish retrace off a significant weekly breakout retest. (Chart I posted yesterday I think or day before). Hence, 1hr and 4hr and even daily TL or patterns may not hold as much significance as they might at other times. Unless a larger view is analysed first, it may all just appear random as TLs' give way to a greater force behind the move. For this reason, I study mainly weekly and sometimes monthly charts as they will show the bigger story and avoid fake outs etc.
Come with me if you want to live....
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