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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #423,521
  • Feb 6, 2016 9:16am Feb 6, 2016 9:16am
Quoting Bones
lol ,I do just not the best structural pattern spotter ,Cad is a tricky thing thats for sure maybe that monthly just catching my eye too much {quote}
Yes she tricky, she have risk, oil, commodities..... But the monthly is signal. She large so need room, she bounce crab/shark combo, that one definitely in thread.
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  • #423,522
  • Feb 6, 2016 2:21pm Feb 6, 2016 2:21pm
This is important what he said right here...

Quoting Bones
im working on the principle $ will weaken medium term {quote} {image}
If there is dollar weakness from a sentiment shift like I think too, there will be causation with or without correlation. The dollar slide will effectively "levitate" the GU pattern upward more than it technically should rise in this situation, correlation coefficient high or not.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,523
  • Feb 6, 2016 2:33pm Feb 6, 2016 2:33pm
My take on USD/CAD... About 3-5 years before it makes it's way back down to 1.1, possibly lower. It should bounce back before the real shift starts. Oil and commodities are not going to recover on a dime. Once oil is back over $80, CAD will be pretty much back where it was. Just a temporary supply glut caused by over-financed fracking companies desperate to produce oil to keep their debt serviced.

As for the fed... Big interest rate hikes to keep the dollar up are not going to happen. Mark my words, they can't do it...

Quoting Bones
thats a 700 pip wick to the upside ,already broke its rare for the chart ,I understand the connection to oil ,but in my mind it will go lower, {image}
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,524
  • Feb 6, 2016 3:47pm Feb 6, 2016 3:47pm
Buy order for next week at 1.44805 with a tp: 1.46700 and sl: 1.44344
  • #423,525
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:44pm Feb 6, 2016 8:44pm
Everyone here who has not watched it needs to watch the Mind Over Money Video from PBS Nova. It's on youtube.

It explains perfectly why markets pattern the way they do. Bubbles within bubbles, within bubbles. They did experiments putting groups of people into a room and had them trade a asset declining in fundamental value to zero over fifteen minutes, and wanted to see what pattern they traded it in. It went up, then topped out, then slide down in a disastrous crash into the end of the game without fail...

Even when they used groups of supposedly rational securities traders.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,526
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:46pm Feb 6, 2016 8:46pm
1.5 looks like as good a spot as any to start looking for long term shorts
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  • #423,527
  • Edited 1:31am Feb 7, 2016 1:03am | Edited 1:31am
Quoting Ill-b-back
1.5 looks like as good a spot as any to start looking for long term shorts {image}
I caution people about getting attached to price targets because of how markets work... A market goes up until it stops finding a bid then it turns over and it goes down until it stops finding an ask, then it reverses and repeats the process over. You cannot estimate highly accurately how many buyers or sellers will come into a move until the move is in progress. With experience you can have an approximate idea, but that is as close as you can get. My current conviction is that we will find a moderate or a strong bid the middle to late part of this coming week, but I would not be shocked if we only find a weak bid.

When the GU tries to head up again, it might only find a few buyers, or it might find a flood of buyers... I don't know, and nobody knows for certain how much money will get pulled in on the next move. Some of it depends upon if random news articles coming out hyping the move and attracting attention to it. News additionally provides rationalizations so that even more logical people start to buy in.

Also, if a news article comes out during a rally which provides a good argument that a currency will go much higher, it has a deflationary effect as it influences people not to sell at what they would otherwise perceive as high prices.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,528
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:35am Feb 7, 2016 2:35am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} I caution people about getting attached to price targets because of how markets work... A market goes up until it stops finding a bid then it turns over and it goes down until it stops finding an ask, then it reverses and repeats the process over. You cannot estimate highly accurately how many buyers or sellers will come into a move until the move is in progress. With experience you can have an approximate idea, but that is as close as you can get. My current conviction is that we will find a moderate or a strong bid the middle to late part...
Hi meanvel, I know what you mean about price attachments. My analysis is done purely on Pattern breakouts, Fibs and Fractals. What you have described for me has too many variables for me to digest and utilise effectively. I now trade off weekly and monthly charts and sometimes drill down to daily TF. I will actually start my shorting around 4775 and put another short just below 1.5 if it spikes up.
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  • #423,529
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:42am Feb 7, 2016 2:42am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hi meanvel, I know what you mean about price attachments. My analysis is done purely on Pattern breakouts, Fibs and Fractals. What you have described for me has too many variables for me to digest and utilise effectively. I now trade off weekly and monthly charts and sometimes drill down to daily TF. I will actually start my shorting around 4775 and put another short just below 1.5 if it spikes up.
The amplification effects of most news are not really much, but certain influential people can have a decent effect.

There is a reason a commodities investor like Jim Rodgers had his lawyer advise him in a TV interview not to make a positive or negative comment on Silver because it can move the market and he can get in legal trouble because of his short term positions. His lawyer did allow him to make comments about the general commodities market.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,530
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:46am Feb 7, 2016 2:46am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} The amplification effects of most news are not really much, but certain influential people can have a decent effect. There is a reason a commodities investor like Jim Rodgers had his lawyer advise him in a TV interview not to make a positive or negative comment on Silver because it can move the market and he can get in legal trouble because of his short term positions. His lawyer did allow him to make comments about the general commodities market.
Do I need a Lawyer?
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  • #423,531
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:53am Feb 7, 2016 2:53am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} The amplification effects of most news are not really much, but certain influential people can have a decent effect. There is a reason a commodities investor like Jim Rodgers had his lawyer advise him in a TV interview not to make a positive or negative comment on Silver because it can move the market and he can get in legal trouble because of his short term positions. His lawyer did allow him to make comments about the general commodities market.
sorry I'm just kidding around. I just didn't really know what to say in the context of our conversation and my initial response
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  • #423,532
  • Feb 7, 2016 2:57am Feb 7, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} sorry I'm just kidding around. I just didn't really know what to say in the context of our conversation and my initial response
i hope you're on time with your excuses ..... the last time someone offended meanvel they only found the offenders left shoelace
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #423,533
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:00am Feb 7, 2016 3:00am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} i hope you're on time with your excuses ..... the last time someone offended meanvel they only found the offenders left shoelace
And that was after reading Meanvels traders blog of course
  • #423,534
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:02am Feb 7, 2016 3:02am
NOw wheres Elbert its been one whole day and nothing ....

Bought at 144 800 on Friday and taking this little puppy north.

Be cool to see some charts Billy.
  • #423,535
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:08am Feb 7, 2016 3:08am
No long from 1.415x?
  • #423,536
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:24am Feb 7, 2016 3:24am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} i hope you're on time with your excuses ..... the last time someone offended meanvel they only found the offenders left shoelace
I have very strong opinions. Don't anyone take it personally. If you are a wishy washy, the market will rip you apart...

My beliefs about the market do get updated from time to time, like that PBS Nova - Mind Over Money video and the university experiments on patterns created by traders in a simulated trading environment. That definitely reinforced and updated one of my beliefs about market behavior.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,537
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:29am Feb 7, 2016 3:29am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} i hope you're on time with your excuses ..... the last time someone offended meanvel they only found the offenders left shoelace
I'll be sure to watch my step.....
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #423,538
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:30am Feb 7, 2016 3:30am
Quoting Ken A
No long from 1.415x?


hmm ... advanced patterns (still on my todo list)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #423,539
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:54am Feb 7, 2016 3:54am
Yep something like that but subject to UK eco data and BOE

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  • #423,540
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:54am Feb 7, 2016 3:54am
Personally I'd wait for a breakout above 1.4500 before I open longs.
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