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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #423,421
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:12am Feb 5, 2016 5:12am
regarding USDX ,has wedged into 100 ,and broke free down this week ,tricky area most likely to make its way into lower area of box ,against trying 100 again ,any time soon





Quoting Bones
you can see the $ is sold off hard already monthly is engulf , {quote} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,422
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:16am Feb 5, 2016 5:16am
Ohhh man, that is an UGLY dollar pattern. Jesus...

Quoting Bones
regarding USDX ,has wedged into 100 ,and broke free down this week ,tricky area most likely to make its way into lower area of box ,against trying 100 again ,any time soon {quote} {image}
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,423
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:23am Feb 5, 2016 5:23am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Like seriously I have gone from 3% up on one trade, for a retrace back to my SL at 1% and then being stopped out instantly within no more than 3 mins in two other trades and now 2% down today, not to mention I'm a riduclous amount down on my account overall now. Fucking pissed me off, I was going steady when I first started with this account, traded 3 trades without SL which I know I shouldn't have done because ive blown accounts this way before, anf they cost me over 50% luckily I closed them out when I did otherwise id be completely gone,...
Sad to hear Don96. Sometimes looking at these forums it looks like trading is simple but we all know it's grinding. Speaking for myself i made the transition of becoming a breakeven/slightly positive parttime trader. Here's what i to become less of a loser:

 

  1. start trading rules

    1. for example no more than 2% loss a day
    2. max 5% a week

  2. start a tradinglog and analyse your trades (see picture below for example
  3. calculate your R:R

In the past my problems were keeping my losers run overleverage etc... Though my win ratio was over 60% the average loss was twice the average profit.
Still have many issues but i keep grinding!

You can't win them all but good moneymanagement makes a difference

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #423,424
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:24am Feb 5, 2016 5:24am
I am going to get a snack and stop looking at the GU price chart... It's making me seasick. The market is just floating around in thin air.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,425
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:36am Feb 5, 2016 5:36am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Ranging now. Short GU for some profit before NFP. KP
Um, don't take my old rule not to trade long on reversal down day as bearish... It just means I use to wait until the day after reversal down is confirmed to return to trading long again in the direction of the primary uptrend.

Most people swing trading off the daily reversals will have established their shorts by sometime mondays session and all the weak longs should mostly be cleared out.

It's the nature of speculators to speculate on their convictions when the market goes in the direction which their convictions are... Everyone who is bearish the GU for fundamental reasons or other reasons will rush in by monday as they see the market dropping.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,426
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:42am Feb 5, 2016 5:42am
Quoting meanvel
I am going to get a snack and stop looking at the GU price chart... It's making me seasick. The market is just floating around in thin air.
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
  • #423,427
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:47am Feb 5, 2016 5:47am
Good morning. Closed my gj and gu shorts for +122pips. Long ej at 130.80, will see how it goes.
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  • #423,428
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:50am Feb 5, 2016 5:50am
Pound Dollar trade holding nicely.

Out of context i know but Cant help thinking that dollar yen is ripe for a buy position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #423,429
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:54am Feb 5, 2016 5:54am
Quoting meanvel
{quote} Um, don't take my old rule not to trade long on reversal down day as bearish... It just means I use to wait until the day after reversal down is confirmed to return to trading long again in the direction of the primary uptrend. Most people swing trading off the daily reversals will have established their shorts by sometime mondays session and all the weak longs should mostly be cleared out. It's the nature of speculators to speculate on their convictions when the market goes in the direction which their convictions are... Everyone who is...
is it a PRIMARY uptrend? I think its more likely a primary downtrend and a secondary uptrend
  • #423,430
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:01am Feb 5, 2016 6:01am
My analyse for GBPUSD bearish:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD VSA analyse.png Size: 124 KB
  • #423,431
  • Edited 6:50am Feb 5, 2016 6:11am | Edited 6:50am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Like seriously I have gone from 3% up on one trade, for a retrace back to my SL at 1% and then being stopped out instantly within no more than 3 mins in two other trades and now 2% down today, not to mention I'm a riduclous amount down on my account overall now. Fucking pissed me off, I was going steady when I first started with this account, traded 3 trades without SL which I know I shouldn't have done because ive blown accounts this way before, anf they cost me over 50% luckily I closed them out when I did otherwise id be completely gone,...
Biggest lesson I've learned over the last few weeks is don't let the losses run, cut them short (very short and try and get as many free trades as possible). That and don't go against the moving average cross overs, chart time relevant. Judge off a few charts not just one, ie, if you are playing 1 minute, look at 5 and 15, if you are playing 5 minute, look at 15 and 30 etc etc etc, before jumping in anywhere. Tightening Bollinger bands on the higher charts seem to be good for deciding entry, then looking at the lower to see how they look. In general get a bigger picture before entering anywhere. I'm stopping playing bingo.

Death by a thousand cuts seems to be my biggest lesson so far! That and patience.

One other thing I've decided is to stick with one pair only and learn the cable, as well as writing and constantly reviewing a trading plan..

Any thoughts on that logic?
  • #423,432
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:18am Feb 5, 2016 6:18am
Well, the daily is in an uptrend. So, a reversal down is against the trend.

Quoting evrynet
{quote} is it a PRIMARY uptrend? I think its more likely a primary downtrend and a secondary uptrend
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,433
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:26am Feb 5, 2016 6:26am
Quoting meanvel
Well, the daily is in an uptrend. So, a reversal down is against the trend. {quote}
Daily looks like a downtrend to me...
  • #423,434
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:34am Feb 5, 2016 6:34am
looking for short entry 1000pips
  • #423,435
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:36am Feb 5, 2016 6:36am
Quoting thrishelle
looking for short entry 1000pips
ROTFL
  • #423,436
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:37am Feb 5, 2016 6:37am
Quoting meanvel
Well, the daily is in an uptrend. So, a reversal down is against the trend. {quote}

Daily RSI bearish!

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #423,437
  • Feb 5, 2016 6:41am Feb 5, 2016 6:41am
Quoting seosamh
{quote} Biggest lesson I've learned over the last few weeks is don't let the losses run, cut them short (very short and try and get as many free trades as possible). That and don't go against the moving average cross overs, chart time relevant. Judge off a few charts not just one, ie, if you are playing 1 minute, look at 5 and 15, if you are playing 5 minute, look at 15 and 30 etc etc etc, before jumping in anywhere. Tightening Bollinger bands on the higher charts seem to be good for deciding enter, then looking at the lower to see how they look....
If you can master one currency pair then logically in time others will follow.
For instance say pound dollar and dollar swiss.
From a personal perspective the Pound Dollar is a great pair to trade.
A stand alone trader who works from a screen lets say at home should with a repetitive outlook gross 400 pips monthly.
However many traders will say it was not untill i had that oh ok so thats it moment which we all get - when you hit that point then its simplier.
If you blow more than 3 accounts then thats the time to re-consider if indeed trading is actually for you.
  • #423,438
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:04am Feb 5, 2016 7:04am
Either someone knows something, or someone is trying to squeeze out all the bears before the jobs report. Heh... Someone really wanted that triangle to break upward.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,439
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:36am Feb 5, 2016 7:36am
Pretty interesting NFP, headline down but wage up and unemployment rate down, mixed but solid otherwise.

I guess since the number doesn't surprise too much, the next step price action could be dragged by 3PM GMT option expiries which Mike on Forexlive pointed out to be
GBPUSD 1.4350 (GBP 331m) 1.4500 (668m) 1.4700 (513m)

Let's say if 1.45 gets protected by then, and if it does, bounce from 1.45 could provide selling opportunity at good R/R
  • #423,440
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:37am Feb 5, 2016 7:37am
Strength in the Average earnings always good to see.
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