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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #423,041
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:55pm Feb 2, 2016 12:55pm
That's funny, my interpretation is the opposite. I see strong divergence in the pound downtrend and weeks of market strength.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,042
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:00pm Feb 2, 2016 1:00pm
Divergence, the market is diverging from it's prior downtrend trajectory. I interpret this as weeks of market strength where it will be holding at least sideways, and potentially establishing a real uptrend.

I would love a surprise retest of the lows on the Jobs report or something, but I don't really know if we are going to get any good dips... A retest of the lows isn't all that likely.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,043
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:01pm Feb 2, 2016 1:01pm
no we are discussing the word momentum thats all

Quoting Bones
weekly promising {quote} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,044
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:10pm Feb 2, 2016 1:10pm
There is no downward momentum right now. Just tossed up my velocity mean formula.

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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,045
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:12pm Feb 2, 2016 1:12pm
G/U just sort of grinding around... There are a small set of cyclical signals that support a move lower in the pair - fundamentals willing - but it's still pretty early in the development.
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #423,046
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:15pm Feb 2, 2016 1:15pm
well there lots of ways to look at it I guess ,the charts retracing for the mo
a falling moving average to me is the momentum its going against ,then strong and weak just a general term
if you want to talk literal when you say strength I don't think of a chart out lifting arnold schwarzenegger ,


Quoting meanvel
There is no downward momentum right now. Just tossed up my velocity mean formula. {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,047
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:28pm Feb 2, 2016 1:28pm
so Id ask myself
is the move strong enough to take out the momentum two different things but could be language use ,its not that important


Quoting Bones
yes and no ,momentum is just that be careful with it you say tomato, I say potato {quote} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,048
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:39pm Feb 2, 2016 1:39pm
Out of interest, is there anyone that trades without indicators?

Ie. just price action, trend lines and support and resistance?
  • #423,049
  • Feb 2, 2016 1:45pm Feb 2, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting Luzbay
Out of interest, is there anyone that trades without indicators? Ie. just price action, trend lines and support and resistance?
I try to. I?ve just cleand up all my charts. Lay some major R/S in the weekly and than some key R/S in daily. Thats all. I try to enter only in daily signal or 4h tf. Pin bar and iside bar atmost.
  • #423,050
  • Feb 2, 2016 3:46pm Feb 2, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting Kajos2250
{quote} GU H4 GMT+2 Aggressive bet for bearish IB BO because of the bearish engulfing on the daily. there has not been sign from bulls yet. sell stop .4121, invalidation H4 close above ~4250. weighted profit taking at ~3982. YPS2~3711 is getting closer... good luck! {image}
GU H4 GMT+2

Let us take bet for last evening star which can shows the end of bullish correction and hope there are no more wash and rinse.
last bullish marubozu conservative profit level reached.
agressive prepare for IB BO on the short side, sell stop .4374.
invalidation close above ~4455.
targetting under the YPS1 ~4223 and further ~3982...

good luck!
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Anything is math!
  • #423,051
  • Feb 2, 2016 5:12pm Feb 2, 2016 5:12pm
Cable looks bullish.
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HumbleTraders
  • #423,052
  • Feb 2, 2016 5:45pm Feb 2, 2016 5:45pm
Trendlines are not very reliable anymore. Not enough people trade them so the self-fulfilling prophecy effect in the market is weak... Same for pivot points. Everyone places orders for currency based upon even numbers and options strike prices. 1.0100, 1.0075, 1.0025, etc... That can actually be statistically proven just by analyzing the order buildup at even numbers in the order book at Oanda.

However, swing highs and swing lows... Everything Dow Theory is as strong as ever.

Quoting Luzbay
Out of interest, is there anyone that trades without indicators? Ie. just price action, trend lines and support and resistance?
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,053
  • Feb 2, 2016 6:32pm Feb 2, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting gfscapital
Cable looks bullish. {image}
eurgbp is looking bullish, nice big bull flag, gbpusd eeeehh not so much big bear flag, to each their own,typical to get a false break the opposite way anything near 1.45ish I will be looking to short, at any rate cable is always a fun ride and keeps ya on your toes. Cheers.
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  • #423,054
  • Feb 2, 2016 6:36pm Feb 2, 2016 6:36pm
Do have a few shts from 1.4410 , just looking for 1.4340ish or so
  • #423,055
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:02pm Feb 2, 2016 7:02pm
No, the question is was the market oversold enough to knock in a solid bottom. On the macro level like the monthly... There isn't a strong confirmation of that. On the weekly time-frame there was confirmation of moderate capitulation toward the end of that recent downtrend with the formula I use to check for distance from mean measured in ATR.

However, it could be another 3-5 months before GU retests down into 1.4. That is ages away... We only need to worry about the next few days and weeks. Odds are sideways to up in the near term without a doubt. Could be unexpected catalysts like the jobs report, but without those it's going to be hard to retest lows.


Quoting Bones
so Id ask myself is the move strong enough to take out the momentum two different things but could be language use ,its not that important {quote}
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,056
  • Edited 11:53pm Feb 2, 2016 11:34pm | Edited 11:53pm
Wow the GU is getting wound tight toward EU open... Massive volatility compression.

If I had to guess which way it's going to try to break out of this... I would say both ways. Megaphone pattern. I'm not playing until after the first attempt. Any large institutional player easily has enough money to push the market either way after EU open for the first breakout attempt.

I mean, seriously... The hourly range is tightening down to ten pips, LoL!!!


I hate to say this, because I am a GU bull... But, any straight upside breakout from this price level isn't likely to go more than 75 pips... Might not even reach 50 pips. Plus, even if we get up there, we still have to retrace back and retest the 1.43 area one of these days.

That dip toward 1.4325 left a lot of positions still uncleared...
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,057
  • Feb 2, 2016 11:59pm Feb 2, 2016 11:59pm
Quoting meanvel
Just by looking at the order book, I can tell price just moved down before this timestamp without even looking at a chart... The orders just above price are cleared out, and there is massive longs with few shorts in that area... Even in the short term daytrading most people took profits on their shorts fast, and held onto their longs as price went down... And are still holding long. Charith... Now do you understand why these position buildups occur? Why most people lose money in Forex... It's simple to explain. Just look at a order book and you...
meanvel, I appreciate your effort to illustrate things clearly. However I'm also on the same page, I 100% agree with all that you explained.

Only disagreement; my understanding is that market players move the market in order to trap retail traders and liquidate their positions.
All those physiological drama, trends, patterns etc are a side product of that. When they move the market for their advantage, screwing retail traders over and over those things naturally appear on the market.

I understand your explanation about price action, in fact that's what I was used to believe. But not any more.

Majority is retail traders (in head count), but minority market players has majority volume in the market.

Can they move the market if they want to?
Has it happened in the past (known major events)?

YES, anyone or institution with enough money power can move the market.
YES, it has happened in the past.

This is like X-Files,
You can choose to believe it,
or you can choose not to.
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
  • #423,058
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:07am Feb 3, 2016 12:07am
Quoting meanvel
Wow the GU is getting wound tight toward EU open... Massive volatility compression. If I had to guess which way it's going to try to break out of this... I would say both ways. Megaphone pattern. I'm not playing until after the first attempt. Any large institutional player easily has enough money to push the market either way after EU open for the first breakout attempt. I mean, seriously... The hourly range is tightening down to ten pips, LoL!!! I hate to say this, because I am a GU bull... But, any straight upside breakout from this price level...
ok both ways chances but will prefer a correction before the next leg down can try/ start , can do more jigjags if it has more time pass arround.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #423,059
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:08am Feb 3, 2016 12:08am
Nah, institutional players just want to make money. Like right now... With ten pips hourly range going into EU open, any big player could try to trigger the breakout attempt either direction. Flip a coin.

However, they are not doing it to screw anyone over... They are just taking the lead and trying to get the market moving to make some money.

I would actually prefer if the initial breakout is downward this session, because it would set up the market better for a rally. Were a little too high here to have good odds of getting a solid 100+ pip rally.

Ill talk to you all later, game time... The first move of the day is coming soon.

Quoting Charith
{quote} meanvel, I appreciate your effort to illustrate things clearly. However I'm also on the same page, I 100% agree with all that you explained. Only disagreement; my understanding is that market players move the market in order to trap retail traders and liquidate their positions. All those physiological drama, trends, patterns etc are a side product of that.
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,060
  • Feb 3, 2016 12:10am Feb 3, 2016 12:10am
Quoting meanvel
Wow the GU is getting wound tight toward EU open... Massive volatility compression. If I had to guess which way it's going to try to break out of this... I would say both ways. Megaphone pattern. I'm not playing until after the first attempt. Any large institutional player easily has enough money to push the market either way after EU open for the first breakout attempt. I mean, seriously... The hourly range is tightening down to ten pips, LoL!!! I hate to say this, because I am a GU bull... But, any straight upside breakout from this price level...
As I read it, players are waiting for long and short build up. When they see more longs, they move it down, and vice versa.
Haven't you notice that happen before?

And once they move it in one direction, say up, if more bulls jump in thinking it a breakout, they pull it down. If more bears jump in looking for the reversal, they keep moving it up.

This is what I see on the market, don't you?
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
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