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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #423,021
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:53am Feb 2, 2016 7:53am
Quoting darkforce
{quote}
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lol this is a scalpers trade from 1to 5 min chart and to when you change it to 4 hours,, i have a headache, but worth it ,,lol
  • #423,022
  • Feb 2, 2016 7:54am Feb 2, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote}
http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ic357657_1.gif LOL SORRY YOU HAVE TO OPEN IT LOL
  • #423,023
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:06am Feb 2, 2016 8:06am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ic357657_1.gif LOL SORRY YOU HAVE TO OPEN IT LOL
No mercy, huh?!
  • #423,024
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:13am Feb 2, 2016 8:13am
Quoting darkforce
{quote} no mercy, huh?!
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lol sorry and anybody follow that eu trade , bingo,
  • #423,025
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:37am Feb 2, 2016 8:37am
anticipating trade eur cad this month ,higher it goes the better
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,026
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:04am Feb 2, 2016 9:04am
Quoting Bones
anticipating trade eur cad this month ,higher it goes the better {image}
hi dear all hi Tony
Brent crude sinks 5%
Dow drops 250 points as US crude plunges 5%
hi to bear CADYEN a bearish doji pattern (daily)
  • #423,027
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:15am Feb 2, 2016 9:15am
Hey Hussin I'm very pleased to hear from you
You think Cad Lfx monthly is false ?
I was thinking it would retrace ,but I can see it ,





Quoting hussin naiji
{quote}hi dear all hi Tony Brent crude sinks 5% Dow drops 250 points as US crude plunges 5% hi to bear CADYEN a bearish doji pattern (daily)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,028
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:17am Feb 2, 2016 9:17am
What you are looking at is not the majority of people being buyers or sellers...

The position buildup counter-trend is simple psychology that has been proven statistically. People hold onto losing positions. When a currency is trending down you will see a buildup of long positions on the Oanda or any brokers stats for their currency traders. When a currency is trending up, you will see a buildup of short positions.

Yes... I did recently notice that there is like 70% long positions on the Cable for Oanda traders. While EUR/USD and AUD/USD are 50-50... This is just basic trading psychology... People holding onto losing positions as they always do.

Quoting Charith
{quote} Well, that's what they want us to believe (are you working for them ) But if you study historical position rations you will see that when majority of retail traders are buyers, price has gone down. When they are sellers, price has gone up. Who is after them? I agree that retail traders are only a minority when compared to volumes of big market players, so are they using that money power against us?
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,029
  • Edited 9:43am Feb 2, 2016 9:32am | Edited 9:43am
Charith... This right here is just a function of what the trend has been. Watch the position ratios after any major has been trending steadily for a few weeks. If it's trending up, short positions will start to build. If it's trending down, long positions will start to build. The majority of people hold onto losers and cut their winners short. This causes the counter-trend position buildup.

The amount of retail longs in Cable has declined a bit in the last couple weeks because this bounce has started to let some of the people trapped long out of their positions.

http://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/a...osition-ratios
Attached Image
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,030
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:44am Feb 2, 2016 9:44am
Is the upside momentum faded already?
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  • #423,031
  • Edited 10:24am Feb 2, 2016 10:03am | Edited 10:24am
Here is proving my point more visually... Look at the open positions. Notice the large numbers of long positions holding from 1.45 up through 1.51. Much larger than people holding shorts. People holding onto losers. You see few open shorts up above the market because those people took profits fast. They took their winners off and they let their losers run.

http://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/a...r-book#GBP/USD
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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,032
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:30am Feb 2, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Darkforce
Is the upside momentum faded already? {image}
up and down like a tarts kni...ers 355 test ??
  • #423,033
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:34am Feb 2, 2016 10:34am
Quoting Darkforce
Is the upside momentum faded already? {image}
going to mess around now,, packed the bag and i am off for the wife small lot running short , thanks for today B
  • #423,034
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:34am Feb 2, 2016 10:34am
Just by looking at the order book, I can tell price just moved down before this timestamp without even looking at a chart...

The orders just above price are cleared out, and there is massive longs with few shorts in that area... Even in the short term daytrading most people took profits on their shorts fast, and held onto their longs as price went down... And are still holding long.

Charith... Now do you understand why these position buildups occur? Why most people lose money in Forex... It's simple to explain. Just look at a order book and you can see it clear as day, LoL...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,035
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:42am Feb 2, 2016 10:42am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} up and down like a tarts kni...ers 355 test ??

Sharp drop right before London fix huh, feels a bit dodgy
  • #423,036
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:42am Feb 2, 2016 10:42am
Hi Hussin ,if Cad is bearish without further up retrace ,eur must be at least more so ? or could be your pointing to an easier trade


Quoting hussin naiji
{quote}hi dear all hi Tony Brent crude sinks 5% Dow drops 250 points as US crude plunges 5% hi to bear CADYEN a bearish doji pattern (daily)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 CAD (DFB).png Size: 28 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,037
  • Feb 2, 2016 11:11am Feb 2, 2016 11:11am
Markets don't have momentum. A strong price move up can psychologically reinforce the bulls so they hold position and don't take profits for a while. Also, a strong move up scares the bears so they do not pile in short until they regain confidence.

This is why the market only pulled back to 1.4325 and bounced. Psychological reinforcement caused by that strong ramp beforehand. There is no "momentum" in the way you normally think of momentum... That a strong up move means a high probability of more immediate gains. Nope, that is not how it works in the market. However, it does mean a high probability that price "holds up" and doesn't collapse immediately.

We will need more buyers tomorrow to keep this thing going, or everyone that rotated in could rotate back out.

Quoting Darkforce
Is the upside momentum faded already? {image}
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,038
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:30pm Feb 2, 2016 12:30pm
I use the term all the time ,its not literal ,
its a term to describe the phenomenon you mention ?
The odds of today going back below the low of a 180 pip candle was v low,

Quoting meanvel
Markets don't have momentum. A strong price move up can psychologically reinforce the bulls so they hold position and don't take profits for a while. Also, a strong move up scares the bears so they do not pile in short until they regain confidence. This is why the market only pulled back to 1.4325 and bounced. Psychological reinforcement caused by that strong ramp beforehand. There is no "momentum" in the way you normally think of momentum... That a strong up move means a high probability of more immediate gains. Nope, that is not how it works in...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #423,039
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:45pm Feb 2, 2016 12:45pm
Meh, kinda just semantics... However, "Strength" better describes what we are talking about.

When a market is strong it's hard to break!

Quoting Bones
I use the term all the time ,its not literal , its a term to describe the phenomenon you mention ?{quote}
"Don't fear a bubble until it starts to burst."
  • #423,040
  • Feb 2, 2016 12:51pm Feb 2, 2016 12:51pm
yes and no ,momentum is just that be careful with it
you say tomato, I say potato

Quoting meanvel
Meh, kinda just semantics... However, "Strength" better describes what we are talking about. When a market is strong it's hard to break! {quote}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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