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High Flying Trading (HFT) Method

  • #161
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:05pm Feb 1, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting Dreamliner
{quote} There is no reason for us to divulge sizes of each other's trading accounts. That's not the purpose of this thread.
I didn't ask either the size of your trading account or your position size, only if :

(a) you traded that chart as shown and in your Live trading account ?
&
(b) in meaningful size (without asking what that size might be in $ terms) ?

Pretty simple, relevant questions, don't you think ?

Why so ? Because there are endless threads here at FF in which people show wonderful charts and winning trades, whilst never having had a profitable year trading. Some of these people can really "Talk the Talk", but trading for them is a hobby, not a serious financial activity.

Such threads are very misleading for those who aspire to learn to trade well.

I doubt very much that you traded the chart as shown... good luck with your thread, whatever its purpose.
.
  • #162
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:08pm Feb 1, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting jtrade
{quote} I didn't ask either the size of your trading account or your position size, only if : (a) you traded that chart as shown and in your Live trading account ? & (b) in meaningful size (without asking what that size might be in $ terms) ? Pretty simple, relevant questions, don't you think ? Why so ? Because there are endless threads here at FF in which people show wonderful charts and winning trades, whilst never having had a profitable year trading. Some of these people can really "Talk the Talk", but trading for them is a hobby, not a serious...
I understand. I only trade live. I don't like to demo trade. And yet with Oanda you can trade with literally 1 unit. That's so tiny that nothing can go wrong . I traded that chart live, as shown.
  • #163
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:09pm Feb 1, 2016 2:09pm
Welcome back
  • #164
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:56pm Feb 1, 2016 2:56pm
Dreamliner,

Thank you for sharing your experience.

First of all, this method reminds me to some extent to the Millipede thread. Your trades are "over" in a much shorter period of time, but there are similarities.

I have a few questions.

1- You say you put your initial SL at the most recent swing high/low (high or low). Fine. But this most recent swing must surely be on the other side of the 34 SMA. I understood that if price goes against you and closed on the "wrong" side of 34 SMA, then you close all open positions and open a new one on the other side. So if you were long, you now are short and vice versa. So the question is: if price close on the wrong side of 34SMA, but does not reach your SL, do you close the position manually and reverse your position?

2- You say the risk is only the initial postion and all the add-ons are risk-free. Maybe I did not read it properly, but there is no such a thing a "risk-free" position. You seem to assume that all the add-ons will be in profit at some stage and you will put a SL at BE. Some add-ons will NEVER be in profit and if you have a SL quite a bit further, these SL will be hit at some point and the risk becomes greater. For instance, say SMA is at 50. You open a long position at 51. A rocket takes off to 60 on the first candle. Great! But the next closes at 59. Addon. Next closes at 58. Addon and so on. None of these addons ever go in profit. You see what I am getting at. Of course, this is a nightmare scenario.

3- Will you trade different pairs that are highly correlated? Or taking contrary positions on two different pairs that have a high negative correlation. You could be overexposed if you do so.

4- If you always trade a particular pair, then you should almost always be in the market. Right? Whenever price goes through 34 SMA, you close all open positions and take anew one on the opposite side, right?

Thank you,
Insider
  • #165
  • Feb 1, 2016 3:07pm Feb 1, 2016 3:07pm
Heya Dreamliner, welcome back.

I've entered the EURUSD with a micro lot for testing purposes, this pair has been in a 200-300 pip range since beginning of December and is certainly due a good trend move . Lets see how it goes....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd microlot test 4hr 34SMA XO.jpg Size: 208 KB


Also, I noticed other colleagues are testing with other timeframes such as the day range, my question is the 34 SMA you have found works best for 4H TF or can the same MA be applied to other TF's with the same result or do we still need to test these, just trying to save some time here.
  • #166
  • Feb 1, 2016 3:11pm Feb 1, 2016 3:11pm
insider999, I don't know much, but I assume that you only keep adding to your position on pullbacks or if the trend remains strong... You don't fly against a jetstream if you're low on fuel, same here, you wont be adding to your position if the trend is losing its 'force'.

And by risk free, he means that you set your stop loss on the 0pips loss, after a few positive ones. If you are unfortunate enough to buy right before a pullback, I guess there you might lose the pullback's equal. That's why you should use other indicators to inform you when the trend is losing its momentum.
  • #167
  • Feb 1, 2016 3:50pm Feb 1, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Greetings all, now home from my long flight, and will post more of my method. Everybody always wants to know about ranging markets, how to handle the whipsaws, etc. This is good and right, for we are simply trying to minimize losses. Every business should do this. I have spent the last 10 years studying ways to minimize whipsaw. Ive read practically every thread on Forex Factory and have studied with mentors outside of Forex Factory, always seeking the illusive answer to minimizing losses during flat markets. I made it my goal to figure out how...
Sir, can you please clarify the confusions in attached image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4DelaysBeforeTakeoff.png Size: 211 KB
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #168
  • Feb 1, 2016 3:57pm Feb 1, 2016 3:57pm
Another point that needs to be made;

What Dreamliner has presented is not necessarily a trading strategy that is a "one size fits all" mentality. He has explained his entries and stops - but the biggest takeaway is the money management and psychology.

Range - could last 2-3 months, take all the small losses.
Trend - could only last 1 month, but due to adding (many) positions, this could easily cover 3-4 months of losses from the ranging

this type of management could be applied to "any" trend trading system with success; the ideas are quite endless.
You don't necessarily have to use 4Hr with 34SMA... you could even use ADX on daily if it will give you a better long term Trend signal

the key is simply to add positions and hope for a long (and boring) flight
  • #169
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:37pm Feb 1, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting sajidkust
{quote} Sir, can you please clarify the confusions in attached image. {image}
all in the blue box were small losses depending on stop. I assume
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #170
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:41pm Feb 1, 2016 5:41pm
Quoting jangezkhan
Another point that needs to be made; What Dreamliner has presented is not necessarily a trading strategy that is a "one size fits all" mentality. He has explained his entries and stops - but the biggest takeaway is the money management and psychology. Range - could last 2-3 months, take all the small losses. Trend - could only last 1 month, but due to adding (many) positions, this could easily cover 3-4 months of losses from the ranging this type of management could be applied to "any" trend trading system with success; the ideas are quite endless....
Excellent and very well said. Let's just replace all my drivel with your paragraph above!
  • #171
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:42pm Feb 1, 2016 5:42pm
Quoting sajidkust
{quote} Sir, can you please clarify the confusions in attached image. {image}
Yes, you are absolutely right. The thing is I was not available to trade those at the time, so didn't include them. Wish I was, for the trade would have of course been more profitable. But yes, you are correct, those candles would have actually been the start of the downtrend.
  • #172
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:44pm Feb 1, 2016 5:44pm
Quoting GunnerNic
Heya Dreamliner, welcome back. I've entered the EURUSD with a micro lot for testing purposes, this pair has been in a 200-300 pip range since beginning of December and is certainly due a good trend move . Lets see how it goes.... {image} Also, I noticed other colleagues are testing with other timeframes such as the day range, my question is the 34 SMA you have found works best for 4H TF or can the same MA be applied to other TF's with the same result or do we still need to test these, just trying to save some time here.
Very good. Watch that previous high up there to the left; if the market gets close carefully consider what you want to do. It's always good to consult support and resistance. We're traders, not robots.
  • #173
  • Feb 1, 2016 7:17pm Feb 1, 2016 7:17pm
Dreamliner,
If you get a chance, I would like your opinion on the legitimate questions I asked and observations I made.
Thank you,
Insider
  • #174
  • Feb 1, 2016 10:46pm Feb 1, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Dreamliner
{quote} You are exactly, 100% right!
Hi mate, thanks for agreeing and I believe that you are sharing your own strategy with good intention. Unfortunately usually what I found in forum, lots of them will not feel grateful or appreciate. They will even blame you when they loss the trade. It is not because neither you nor the strategy problem, just because they doesn't fully understand how it works. Just like forex, I believe 10 out of 10 here know how to trade forex. I can trade forex by only learning 10 minutes because it is only either buy or sell. But does that means I am fully understand how to trade profitable? Does I really understand such as price behavioral, fundamental, etc?

For a professional trader, they will always back to the basic just as pilot does, altitude, speed, autopilot. But does that means enough? Nope. Either professional trader or pilot knows how and when to handle any circumstances but an amateur only know how to trade.
  • #175
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:14am Feb 2, 2016 2:14am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Can you run this daily test from the time where price crossed the MA and share results? Start Nov 27th 2015 or so...
This is the test on CADJPY Daily from Nov 27, 2015 until today

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYDaily_27112015.png Size: 42 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hft_cj_d1_2.PNG Size: 37 KB


Apparently the system will suffer on trend change.
I have already highlighted this issue in post # 59.
No guts, no glory
  • #176
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:14am Feb 2, 2016 2:14am
Dreamliner,

Thanks for sharing your trading idea. I do using the same method like yours.
A fx trader should be able to have a method to identify high probabilty (to minimize wrong signal) and high RR. And take action consistently. Plus willing to have a small 'cost'.

Good luck,

Note: it doesn't matter SMA 34 or other. The most important thing is to know your indi behaviour.
  • #177
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:21am Feb 2, 2016 2:21am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} Only my point of view. Maybe I'm wrong {image}
No MCFly, you are not wrong. My test as stated in the post was "Same test on Daily ", so I took the same period I used for H4 in the test prior to that. Assuming you started using the system on 1/1/2016 on Daily.

Please check my reply to BillYon, Post 176.

Quoting L.m
{quote} That's how I understood it as well. And in addition no SL was moved to BE. Dreamliner, thanks for sharing.
SL was not moved to BE.
No guts, no glory
  • #178
  • Edited 3:06am Feb 2, 2016 2:47am | Edited 3:06am
Quoting Dreamliner
{quote} Usually when the EAs start coming in to the thread, the thread begins a slow death. I'm sure you've seen this too. Not that there is no value in developing it, just that I've not had good experiences with them.
Sorry, but an EA show the real performance of the system. nothing more or less.
It's easy to say you can earn thousand of pips when a trend starts, but nobody knows when a trend will start and when the ranging market begins.

So why do you not want to talk about an EA in your thread?
I know...
  • #179
  • Feb 2, 2016 2:49am Feb 2, 2016 2:49am
Very nice thread dreamliner!

I like the analogy very much, trading can be compared to al lot off things in live, if not all.
I too noticed a small comparison with the Millipede thread, but this one has much more defined exits and add-on trades, so it should be more easy to work with.

Keep it up!
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #180
  • Feb 2, 2016 3:00am Feb 2, 2016 3:00am
Quoting Dreamliner
{quote} Sure, you can share it, no problem. Please post a disclaimer that I do not recommend using EA's but rather learning how to be a successful trader. I've not once, in 10 years, met an EA that works long term. But maybe that's just me.
I agree on EAs not working long term, same goes for mechanical manual trading, due of course to the dynamical nature of markets .
In fact I prefer EAs on manual trading for mechanical systems, as EAs are emotionless and stick to the rules.
Discretionary trading of course is completely another story.

Quoting Dreamliner
{quote} Usually when the EAs start coming in to the thread, the thread begins a slow death. I'm sure you've seen this too. Not that there is no value in developing it, just that I've not had good experiences with them.
I respect your view, and I will not post any.

----------------

On the other hand, The general concept of the method you shared is well known.
It is one of the best methods to make money from trading.
Most of the system I shared on FF are based on this concept.

What I don't like in your application of the method is mainly the re-entry on every opposite candle, which can eat-up most if not all of the profits at trend change.
I'd noted that in post # 59, in case you missed it :

As for re-entries on opposite candles, its a bit dangerous. Here are other options I prefer:

  1. Re-entry on a touch of a faster MA (say 5MA)
  2. Re-entry on a Fractal Break in the trend direction


Note about re-entries :

  1. They should never be at a price better than our last entry.
  2. Example : If we are in an up-trend, our next buy should never be at a price lower that our last re-entry.


This is all I have to say in this thread.

Again thank you DreamLiner for sharing your method.

And wish you all a safe flight home.

No guts, no glory
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