USD/JPY Discussion

And so with the rate unchanged, where does that leave the dollar fundamentally? I'm guessing slightly lower..?

Dovish FOMC, UJ bear in play ??

Dovish, but is it dovish enough? As far as i can see, this FOMC was within the market expectation while price was not able to break under the 118.50 level today. Let's see if that level would continue to hold for the rest of the week.

Let the price action in the following hours tell us where the price would go. Don't overthink about the FOMC because these thought would stop us from flowing with the markets when we are too much in our heads.

Not sure. BoJ interest rate decision is just a day out, if they raised or cut rates you'd see some re-balancing to adjust, doesn't sound like either one of those is expected. GDP is right around the corner, if that came in way off it could impact as well.

Outside of that I think it's going to take a huge loss of jobs, some type of shock, to kick off a counter trend. Based on the current fundamentals I think we chop around here the next couple of months (that can still mean good short term trends - but it will look like consolidation or range on a weekly/monthly chart) before we see a decline.

BOJ speech is key and that might determine the breakout, either up or down.

Think so ABE is unlikely to start the printing until the oil stabilizes.

UsdJpy ====>
Buy Stop = 118946 / TP = 119238 / SL = 118410
if this order trigger ; open 2* lot Sell Stop = 118410 / TP = 118152 / SL = 118946
GL

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...onomy-is-toast

Interesting article, thanks for sharing

UJ was be able to stay above the 118.50 level through FOMC and Asian section today. Couple pips away from 119.00 now.

Original Trade Idea USDJPY on 1/19
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...5-Oil-Oil-Oil/

Looks like there's no stopping for the pair to reach 120...

It's on a springboard, still have my stops in place @ .838 (futures) this trade has stressed me more than necessary. Can't wait for BOJ tomorrow.

Still between the 118.50 and 119.00 as bulls are clearly losing momentum on 4H chart as FOMC was a bit dovish.
what do you think BOJ is going to do? hike, cut or stay?

We started with the safe haven currency because of china tanking, oil etc..... uj bear
then the oil retrace....
BOJ wants weak yen, their decision was made before retrace
I think they'll stay the course (like fed) increased QE , my guess, no
I think they would act if YEN was 114-110
I think its a bit of a gamble atm, if I wasn't already in I wouldn't trade this pair.
got caught up in the retrace.
I'm worried of dovish comments that might send this pair up as pohchuan said.
the uncertainty in this pair was evident in the trading today , it spent 3/4 of European session in a 20 (not even) pip range
may I ask RU short ?

Like i always say, when in doubt, stay out!

I long since 1/17. If price does not break 119 by the end of this week, I'll cash out.

UJ Daily support turned to resistance might give way (?). Then again these days

HI!
I think in the long run, we better wait monday to see how it ends this week.
If you wanna try some scalping, it's a semi go...
My 2 cents

The USDJPY stays above the 118.39 level. Price may try to go and visit the 200.00 level, which could act as resistance.

"SUPPOSE for a moment that you are sitting on the Federal Open Market Committee and therefore share the FOMC's view of what's going on in America's economy, and therefore think that it was sensible to raise the fed funds target in December. This means that you look at the data from the second half of 2015 and see an economy experiencing a robust, broad-based recovery, apart from energy-related businesses and some manufacturers. You see employers adding workers at a sustained, rapid clip, despite the fact that the unemployment rate has fallen to 5%. And you say, look, oil can't fall that much farther, and payroll growth at this pace and unemployment rate has to eventually lead to much faster wage growth and higher inflation. There's a risk that high inflation would be hard to bring down, and we don't want to create a new recession by hiking rates a lot in a short period of time. So best to get started with the hikes now, so that we can shepherd the economy toward sustained growth at 2% inflation.

So you raise rates. And then, let's suppose, all hell breaks loose. Stock markets suddenly lose their minds and start to swing violently, generally in the downward direction. Bond yields tumble, too (except on the government bonds of big emerging markets in vulnerable financial situations). Commodity prices fall off a cliff, led by oil. Market-based measures of future inflation trip on a stone and faceplant. And the dollar floats irrepressibly higher. Meanwhile, the economic data coming in looks ever so slightly less robustnot recessionary, by any means but not invulnerable, either. So then you all meet again in January and have to figure out what to tell the panicky traders of the world you're going to do next. What do you do, then?"

Well written by the latest feed from The Economist.

If you ask me, I say 300.

Thank you BOJ

+ 470 pips so far

i picked a hell of a time to get into forex. closed all my positions for a 165 pip gain yet i'm too nervous to go to bed.