USD/JPY Discussion

Hi Finsia, how are you?

Forex runs around the clock 24/7. I'd like to break this cycle into sections marked by the major exchange market opening time.
I'd like to call these market-section,

1. Asian Section is marked by Sydney Opening
2. Europe Section is marked by London Opening
3. American Section is Marked by NY Opening

Price action is volatility during market section in most the case. GBP cross pair often moves 20-40 pips up and down within a minute. That means, if not being careful, tight stop that is within 10-20 pips would often gets shaken off when entry is made during the opening hour.

There are also I'd like to call time-section. Time section is rather random since the market is often extremely slow when these occur. To me these are the section I'd like to stay away because these are the times bank (stop hunt) and your broker (stop hunt, and swapping) will fuck with you.

1. GMT 0:00, where the daily candle completes
   This is the period of time when the stop hunt takes place in most case. Major bank, and your brokers takes out the stop (for commission) easier when the market liquidation is low.
   
   
2. Weekend carry over. That mean you carry your position over the weekend
   When it comes to the randomness, weekend has the most randomness. Many key meetings held over the weekend, and many resolved issued, pending answers, hearings are often need to be discussed over the weekend. These factors are included within the Monday opening price - the weekly opening GAP. Gap goes from 10 pips to 200 pips depends what happened in the weekend. and this is something you have NO control over. The only control from your end would be NOT to carry your position over the weekend.

When it comes to calculate the risk, all these factors need to be accounted for to reduce the stress level when "WTF?? WHAT JUST HAPPENED??"

Do you know what the correlation is between energy price and USD monetary policy?
Do you know what Fed responded in terms how the policy would go when oil hit $45 a barrel (previous historical low) back in Jan 2015?
Do you know what are the most feared factors in the current dollar situation?

I guess that means no.

Thnx have a good weekend

BTW the crude market is not forex.

Oil and dollar usually runs in opposite direction. That's the general idea.

That's not always true. when oil is low enough, it became a huge threat to CPI and possible deflation which is where US at after the last CPI number.

In December, Yellen spent the large part of her press conference expressing confidence in the U.S. economy and the ability of inflation to return to 2% once transitory factors fade. And guess what? this week we had a negative CPI reading.

A energy affected low CPI reading is never a good news to policy makers because they never be able to nail down the decision upon the true CPI.. That's also a bad news for USD Fed when the entire world is expecting them to come up a plan on how many hikes in 2016. As long as US kept hike plan clouded or even has a slightest chance of rate cut (if economy does NOT show consistent growth and CPI does NOT pick up), dollar would NOT be attractive at all.

For now, a recover from oil would regain the confident in dollar bulls because the overall economy situation is still fairly healthy compare to the end of 2015.

Good trading, and have a good weekend to you too.

Was just looking at Nikkei Futures. Holy Cow!

Hi everybody, I'm new in TA, so every suggestion, good or bad, will be appreciated. Thanks in advance.
These are my daily charts. Seems like everybody is expecting more easing from Kuroda.

I read also that people are starting to expect Kuroda to expand the quantitive easing program some more soon. I hope he does as these a really easy to trade!

Good weekend to all!

Yea but even with big move it was down for the week from the previous Friday close.

Is the massive snow storm going to weaken the dollar verses the Yen?

Going to be a big drop at end of the week of BOJ fails to deliver further easing.

From Davos, "Japan's economy minister has issued a plea for companies to raise wages this spring to smash the "deflationary mindset" that still grips the nation.", as reported in The Telegraph.

...so whether that means that the BoJ will hold back on more stimulus/easing is anybody's guess.

Have longs going so I am biased

They are politicians, hence they're carefully choosing their words.... It's not "a deflationary mindset", Japan is falling back into deflation for months now. Check Core CPI for the last 5 years. If BOJ doesn't deliver more QE the music stops and the whole concept of Abenomics it's at stake.

If you plot CPI data on the chart you won't get big moves around release time, it's all about market expectations. But if the release on 29 Ian comes with more jawboning, it will surely spike.

Bloomberg, 24 Ian 2016:

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has preserved his capacity to surprise the market when his policy board meets this week after using his trip to Davos to play down the impact of recent turbulence on Japan’s economy.

"At this stage, we don’t think the current market situation has been affecting corporate behavior unduly," he said in an interview with Bloomberg in the Swiss mountain resort. "But, as I said, the market is the market, and markets could affect the real economy -- so we carefully watch."
Kuroda, 71, was speaking ahead of what could be an agonizing decision about whether to add to the central bank’s record asset-purchase program. Waning inflation expectations, sliding oil prices and a reversal in the yen’s declines have put pressure on the BOJ to do more. Even so, some analysts question how much impact a move would have now and others suggest Kuroda has only one more shot in his monetary arsenal and say he should save it.

120 is the key level here for mine. I'm blocking out the BOJ. They've talked the talk but haven't backed it up by walking the walk. They'll stay on the current QE path with a few comments and USD/JPY will do the obligatory round turn back where it started the trading day.

USDJPY in this week. After chart will up.

?, How did you get to this conclusion???

Good Morning !

Today's Support & Resistance for EURUSD, GBPUSD ,USDJPY & DAX On MT4 Templates


SR Levels

Yen will strengthen if oil goes back below 30.

Boom there you go, oil goes up 40 more or less cents usd/jpy moves up usd/cad down...... these pairs are glued to oil.... just glued !